Opinion polls show there is little support for Nicolas Maduro’s arrest outside of Republican bases, and experts say it is unlikely to matter to voters.
President Trump criticizes Venezuela after Maduro attack: ‘We are responsible’
President Donald Trump says he is “in charge” of Venezuela after US special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro.
- Opinion polls show that Americans’ opinions on military action are largely divided along partisan lines.
- The move has been praised by hardliners in the Republican Party but criticized by some “America First” conservatives and Democrats.
- Although public opinion is divided on the strike, a clear majority of Americans are concerned about further U.S. involvement in Venezuela.
President Donald Trump’s attack on Venezuela has split the country in two. Republican hawks support the Jan. 3 attack that dragged President Nicolas Maduro to New York to face drug charges, but Democrats question whether constitutional rules or international law were violated.
“We’ve seen a president with the backbone to stand up and do things that past presidents never dreamed of,” Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin said in a video posted Jan. 5 celebrating Maduro’s concerns. “We have demonstrated the power and ability of the United States to enter your backyard and drag you out of your home if you threaten us.”
White House officials also told USA TODAY that Maduro’s critics sounded the same alarm when President Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, which they claim paved the way for October’s Israel-Hamas peace deal.
As many Venezuelan-Americans have flocked to the streets to celebrate the overthrow of Maduro’s government, the 2018 and 2024 presidential elections have been described by U.S. officials as a “sham,” as administration officials note.
But Venezuela’s actions come at a politically dangerous time for the president, given that his approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections.
Early polling shows similar rifts within President Trump’s base, although reactions are divided primarily along partisan lines. As with last summer’s U.S. attack on Iran, some “America First” conservatives have joined Democrats in publicly speaking out against President Trump’s use of force without Congressional authorization.
Experts and analysts say a show of U.S. military might could give Trump a temporary boost, as has happened with some presidents in the past.
But they warn that the Maduro attack could further expose President Trump’s weak leadership, especially for anti-war voters on both sides of the political spectrum.
Opinion poll shows Americans are divided on the detention of Venezuela’s president
The White House’s decision to attack Venezuela comes after President Trump and his top aides have long vowed during his campaign and in office to avoid international entanglements and instead put “America First.”
In June 2020, President Trump gave a speech at West Point’s graduation ceremony and said, “We are returning to the basic principle that the job of the American military is not to rebuild a foreign country, but to protect, and strongly defend, our country from foreign enemies.”
“We are ending the era of endless wars…It is not the duty of the U.S. military to resolve ancient conflicts in faraway lands many have never heard of,” he added. “We are not the world’s police officers.”
The reversal worries some of the more isolationist figures in the “Make America Great Again” movement, such as former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who feel cheated.
White House press secretary Anna Kelly called the concerns an overreaction.
“Rather than repeating the mistakes of past administrations, the president is reasserting and implementing the Monroe Doctrine to restore U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere, curb immigration, and stop drug trafficking,” Kelly told USA TODAY in a statement.
“The president is never afraid of panic,” he said, using a term Trump coined by combining the words “panic” and “American.” “He succeeded in renewing America’s power to bring the artifacts back to our country.”
Democrats and other international law experts have also condemned the move, with some questioning what will happen next and others noting violations of global rules that could force the United States into foreign occupation.
President Maduro entered a not guilty plea in federal court on January 5, but the first measurements of the American public’s reaction show that Americans are evenly divided on removing foreign leaders, with a majority concerned about what will happen next.
A two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll released during Mr. Maduro’s arraignment showed that about 33% of Americans support a military strike against Venezuela, while exactly the same number disapprove and 34% are unsure. The poll found that 65% of Republicans support the military, compared to 11% of Democrats and 23% of independents.
Other surveys have found similar results, including a Jan. 3 poll by YouGov that showed 36% of U.S. adults support overthrowing Maduro by military force, compared to 39% who oppose it. A Washington Post poll on January 5 also found that 40% supported sending troops to Venezuela to arrest the president, while 42% opposed it.
President Trump’s overall approval rating in the two polls (42% by Reuters/Ipsos, 39% by YouGov) is roughly in line with recent polls before the military invasion.
As Rubio gains attention, the White House leans into “FAFO” bravado
The Trump administration has reportedly publicly touted the operation, which has left at least 56 people dead in Venezuela, with no American casualties.
“This is our hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be compromised,” a Jan. 5 State Department post to X said.
The White House’s Instagram page is also proud, and a Jan. 5 post on the White House’s Instagram page shows the president emerging from a secure limousine, the acronym “FAFO” (short for “f— around and find out”) being a favorite joke among administration officials.
Another post on the social media app features bold footage of President Maduro trying to get himself captured by the United States before playing Notorious Big’s hip-hop song “Hypnotize,” with the caption “If you don’t know, now you know,” also borrowed from the late rapper’s lyrics.
Mr. Trump is leaning into this kind of bravado messaging during the 2024 campaign, and polling shows it may resonate with a significant portion of the Republican Party, especially foreign policy hawks.
When asked whether the United States should follow policies that “dominate affairs in the Western Hemisphere,” about 43% of Republican voters in the YouGov poll supported that statement. The poll also found that after the attack on Venezuela, the number of Republicans who said U.S. military intervention would improve conditions in the countries where it occurred more than doubled compared to a month ago, the survey found.
Republican strategist Liz Mair said it was too early to tell whether capturing Maduro would be of political benefit to the president ahead of the midterm elections, but she said her focus was on the tug of war between MAGA isolationists and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s rising influence within the administration.
Mr. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has long advocated a shift in U.S. policy towards Venezuela from diplomatic negotiations to the use of military force.
“This whole thing has the hallmarks of Marco Rubio’s stealth presidency,” said Mair, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.
Survey finds that people are highly skeptical about what President Trump should do next
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 72% of Americans are concerned about the U.S. getting too involved in Venezuela, including 90% of Democrats and 74% of voters who identify as “other” in the poll. Among Republicans, 54% said they were concerned about further U.S. involvement.
Following Maduro’s detention, the president asserted that the United States was “in charge” of Venezuela and that foreign countries would “hand over” 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil as well.
“This oil will be sold at market price, and the funds will be controlled by me as President of the United States, ensuring that they are used for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the United States of America!” Trump said in a Jan. 6 post on Truth Social.
Rubio mostly dodged a question about who exactly is running Venezuela on the Jan. 4 episode of NBC’s “Meet the Press.” The country’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who took over, denounced the US operation as a “kidnapping”, but Mr Rubio suggested the South American country’s leadership would become more compliant after Mr Maduro’s ouster.
“We expect to see a lot more compliance and cooperation than we’ve had in the past,” Rubio said in a Jan. 4 interview. “We were unable to reach any deal or arrangement with Mr. Nicolas Maduro.”
Voters care more about the economy than foreign policy
Experts say it’s difficult to say whether Venezuela’s actions will help or further hurt President Trump’s popularity, but historically, what happens abroad doesn’t have much impact on political outcomes at home.
Some polls conducted over the past year have shown that a majority of voters are increasingly concerned about President Trump’s use of executive power, such as sending the National Guard to American cities, but foreign affairs rarely tops the list.
“Foreign policy only affects public opinion about a president in major events like wars, invasions, and the Great Leap Forward,” David Greenberg, a historian of American political and cultural history at Rutgers University, told USA TODAY.
“Despite what some Democrats say, we are not going to war,” he added. “Overall, outside of the Venezuelan community, most people don’t consider this a top priority.”
Experts say that whatever boost or damage Trump receives politically, the issue is likely to fade among voters within weeks as domestic concerns take precedence in the fall’s congressional elections.
In December, Trump traveled to rural Pennsylvania for a rally seeking to reset the narrative on his economic performance. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released nearly two weeks after the incident showed that 57% of Americans disapprove of his handling of economic policy, and more respondents think Democrats will do a better job.
But some progressives skeptical of military intervention abroad say Democrats should not abandon their positions on foreign policy and emphasize that President Trump’s actions in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria are inconsistent with his campaign rhetoric.
While the Jan. 3 attack was an “impressive tactical feat,” the president’s opponents need to remember that the vast majority of Americans oppose any escalation, said Matt Das, executive vice president of the International Policy Center, a Washington, D.C.-based foreign policy research and advocacy think tank.
“Trump promised to be a peacemaking president,” said Das, a former policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders. “He has now launched military operations in seven countries, at least as far as we know. How is this going to improve my life? That’s the question Americans are asking.”
