Vance and Newsom lead in 2028, Trump’s disapproval rate soars in new poll

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Trump’s disapproval rating among Hispanic voters has increased by 13 percentage points in the past month, according to a new Emerson College poll.

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  • According to the latest Emerson College poll, President Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to 55%.
  • Polls show that support for the president among Hispanic voters has declined significantly.
  • The cost of living, healthcare costs, and inflation are the biggest issues for voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President J.D. Vance are each the early frontrunners for the 2028 presidential primary.

According to the latest Emerson College poll released on February 25th, President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to decline.

The Emerson poll of 1,000 likely voters found that more than half of Americans surveyed, or 55%, disapproved of the president’s job, an increase of 4 points from January. The poll was conducted between February 21 and February 22, days before Trump’s record-length State of the Union address on February 24.

Meanwhile, 43% of Americans support Trump, according to the Emerson Poll, the same percentage recorded in the university’s January poll. During his State of the Union address, Trump boasted that he inherited a “nation in crisis.” He praised his economic performance, crediting it with lowering the prices of essential goods for Americans such as gasoline and eggs.

“This is America’s golden age,” President Trump said. “We have achieved a transformation unlike anything anyone has seen before. This is a change of time.”

The Emerson poll comes with less than a week until voters cast their ballots in the Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina primaries on March 3. In the general congressional vote, the Emerson poll showed the Democratic candidate defeating the Republican candidate by an 8-point margin, 50% to 42%. This number is two points higher than Emerson’s January survey.

Emerson’s poll this month is consistent with a series of other polls showing President Trump’s approval ratings are plummeting, including recent polls by The Washington Post ABC News, The New York Times and Pew Research Center.

According to these polls, President Trump’s approval rating is between 37% and 43%.

And in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll on February 24, 6 in 10 Americans, including a sizable portion of Republicans, said they thought the 79-year-old President Trump had become less stable as he aged.

Overall, 61% of poll respondents described President Trump as “more unstable with age,” according to the six-day poll that ended Feb. 23. Meanwhile, about 89% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans, and 64% of independents also rate President Trump that way.

Trump support among Hispanics plummets

The Emerson Poll also shows that more than half of Hispanics surveyed disapprove of the president’s job. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said 58% of Hispanics surveyed disapproved of President Trump, while 37% supported him.

This is a big change from last month, when Mr. Emerson reported a split approval rating of 43% and 45% disapproval. President Trump’s disapproval rating jumped 13% among Hispanics from January to February.

“These numbers reflect the broader downward trends observed previously among Hispanic voters,” Kimball said in the release.

Newsom emerges as top Democratic presidential candidate in Emerson poll

California Governor Gavin Newsom is the early favorite to win the 2028 Democratic presidential primary with 20% of the vote, according to Emerson Poll.

Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg followed with 16%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris in third place with 13%. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had a 9% approval rating, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro 7% and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear 5%.

Kimball noted that polls show about 24% are undecided as candidates begin to take shape on their 2028 base.

He said Ocasio-Cortez has the most support among voters under 30 at 20%, and among women, Buttigieg leads with 20%, tied with 21% among graduate students.

Kimball added that Newsom leads among voters 50 and older (23%), and black voters support Harris (36%).

Vice President Vance becomes the top early Republican presidential candidate

On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads the 2028 Republican presidential primary candidates with 52%, according to the Emerson Poll.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was second with 20%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in third with 6% and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 4%. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has 3%. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had 1%.

According to the poll, about 11% are undecided.

“Republican voters strongly support Mr. Vance,” Kimball said.

Kimball added that independent voters who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican primary also support Vance, but by a narrow margin of 33% to 23%.

According to the poll, independent voters overall lean toward Democratic candidates 50% to 37%.

Poll: Voters say cost of living will be the biggest topic in the 2026 midterm elections

With the 2026 midterm elections just over eight months away, a majority of prospective voters say the cost of living is their top issue, according to the Emerson Poll.

In the poll, voters were asked how important a range of issues were to them on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest. According to the poll, cost of living ranked highest on average at 8.2, followed by health care at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, access to health care at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.

According to the poll, by political party, Democrats rate health care spending higher than average at 8.6, and border security at 4.9, the lowest.

According to the poll, Republicans rate border security as the most important issue at 8.3 and deportation policy at 8.2, far ahead of Democrats (4.9 and 6.9) and independent voters (5.9 and 6.5).

Independents were also more concerned about the cost of living, with an average rating of 8.2.

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