US President Donald Trump abandoned the call for a ceasefire in Ukraine and instead supported Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calling for a permanent peace deal. It has not stopped some European leaders from pushing for a temporary ceasefire first, despite the apparent decision the US president has decided.
It’s not that Kiev and his allies don’t want peace. But they understand that the kind of dealings Russia is seeking will not happen unless the most basic principles underpinning the world’s order – the state cannot force it to get what it wants – is thrown under the bus.
And Kiev’s European allies are willing to put it at risk, especially as they could become the next target of Russian invasion.
Speaking with Ukrainian President Voldymi Zelensky and European leaders in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump adopted some of Moscow’s topics and questioned whether a ceasefire would be “necessary” if a wider peace deal could be achieved.
However, international law experts and analysts say that the deal that forces Ukraine to abandon its land to stop the killing of its citizens by Russia is completely illegal under the UN Charter.
Although often considered essentially the same thing, there is a huge difference between a peace agreement and a ceasefire in the eyes of international law.
During the ceasefire, the fighting parties agree to cease fighting against each side that holds the territory under military control. But the understanding is that pauses are temporary – usually to negotiate, provide humanitarian assistance, or to provide windows to evacuate civilians.
Kiev and its European allies have suggested that the ceasefire portends a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky and Putin.
“I can’t imagine the next meeting being held without a ceasefire,” German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz attended the summit on Monday.
The ceasefire could be as short as the 1914 Christmas truce that lasted several days. A ceasefire between Cyprus and Türkiye, and between India and Pakistan, has been introduced for decades where a permanent peace settlement is invisible.
What President Putin wants, and now Trump, seems to be a permanent peace deal.
Under international law, a peace agreement is intended to be a formal long-term treaty that determines future relationships between the two countries.
And that’s where things get complicated.
“International law, which is engraved in the front and center of the UN Charter, has a unique core principle. The use of force is emphasized. Therefore, it also means that treaties procured using force are effectively illegal and inherently invalid.”
While little details have been shared about the peace deal he discussed with President Trump last week, it is clear that the Russian leader has not abandoned some of his biggest demands, including Ukraine’s abandonment of the entire eastern Donetsk and Luhansk region known as Donbas and being banned from joining NATO in the future.
This makes transactions double illegal under international law. It is illegal because of the way it is forced to reach and because of its content.
But even if he wanted to – but Zelensky cannot agree to abandon his territory.
Under the Ukrainian Constitution, changes to the borders of the country must be approved by referendum. This is a rule that has been made partially due to the Russian trend of establishing doll governments in foreign countries.
A survey conducted in May and June by the leading polling officer, Kiev International Sociology Institute (KIIS), found that the majority of Ukrainians rejected the idea of recognizing Ukrainian territory as part of Russia. An even larger majority opposes waiving control of the territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
Speaking to CNN from Kyiv, Piji said that even if Ukrainians voted in favor of somehow changing their minds and giving up on their land, KIIS said it was unlikely they would do that.
“No one can hand over Zelensky, or anyone else, a territory associated with an offensive military conquest, regardless of the Ukrainian constitution. The prohibition on using the army to conquer territory is absolute under international law,” Piji said.
There are also practical and strategic reasons why Ukraine cannot agree with Moscow’s demands.
The Russian army now controls almost all of Luhansk and over 70% of Donetsk. In other words, Putin is asking Kiev to give up more than ever before.
However, parts of the Donbas region, still under Kiev’s control, contain infrastructure important for Ukraine’s defense. A series of industrial cities, including Slobiansk, Kramatalk and Kostiantinibka, connected by main roads and railways, form the backbone of Ukraine’s defence. If they were taken to Russia, the road to the western part of the country is wide open.
There is also little incentive for Kiev to trust Moscow, Pizzi said.
“Russia has been consistently and repeatedly engaged in armed attacks on Ukraine for over a decade. Russia has continued to use violence, maintaining the same illegal maximalism goal in the background, and while Ukrainian authorities are painfully aware of this, it has given sincerity to be negotiated,” he said.
“There is no logical and wise reason to trust Russia if there are no pioneers. They are honest decisions or involvement that they make on their part to stop killing more Ukrainians,” he added.
Supported by Europeans, Kiev shows that he is willing to recognize the current reality of earth in order to stop the killing. This means essentially giving up on trying to freeze conflicts along the current frontlines and reclaim the land while the ceasefire is in place.
Analysts with the Eurasian Group wrote in a memo on Monday that it is certainly clear to Trump that European leaders are unquestionable that they will be forced to accept a permanent annexation of Ukraine’s territory.
“There is openness in the perception of de facto military status on the ground, but neither Ukraine nor Europeans accept that they should be “given” more land than Russia captured,” they said.
And, importantly, even if Kiev realizes that the reality on earth gives Russia the de facto control of a portion of the land, he certainly disagrees with this as a permanent recognition. Kyiv’s goal is to reclaim all territory in the future.
Eurasian analysts said there was doubt in Europe’s mind that “Trump understands or cares about the importance of distinctions.”
A ceasefire may be the only way out of current violence. A permanent peace agreement would violate international law.
“The reality is that (international law) makes it almost politically impossible to close a peace treaty when the victims aren’t winning, and that’s the point of my response to that,” Pizzi said.
