Kyiv
CNN
–
A lot has happened this week, but more have failed.
The first in-person meeting between Ukraine and Russia should have ushered in a new era of diplomacy to resolve Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. Instead, their context, brevity and limited results provide skeptics with more reasons to doubt that Moscow wants peace.
Three conclusions – talking more about prisoners’ exchanges, their presidential meetings, and both sides constitute a vision for a future ceasefire – sound like progress.
However, prisoner swaps occurred regularly, and Ukraine already said it wanted an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the air force and the land, and had already provided in-person meetings between President Voldymir Zelensky and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Russia rejected these two ideas, but said Friday they would consider them again.
Diplomacy has run long distances this week, essentially returning to zero. Kiev, Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK and Poland have since demanded an unconditional ceasefire for a month, and have released photos of the leaders of five countries over the phone to President Trump. They trumpeted his support for the armistice, but also trumpeted what France called “massive sanctions” if Russia refused the request.
Six days later, on Friday, they once again posted photos of the same five men, this time in Tirana, the Albanian capital, and were reunited around the phone to talk to Potus. French President Emmanuel Macron said it was “unacceptable” for Russia to continue to ignore the ceasefire. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Putin “has to pay the price to avoid peace.”
The symmetry between the requirements and images was prominent. Over the past week, Trump has played the stunning Principal Diplo. Putin shrugged his demands for a ceasefire and proposed a direct meeting in Istanbul. Zelensky says he will meet Putin there and Trump offers to become an intermediary. Putin rejected all bars for junior meetings. And Trump apparently robbed the sense of urgency, adding that he never expected Putin to be present even if he wasn’t in Istanbul, and concluded that “nothing will happen” in Ukraine before meeting the head of the Kremlin.
We don’t know how European leaders handled the Friday call. Trump has shown resistance to Putin’s pressure and speaking publicly. But now his credibility with his closest European ally, “Smart Cookie” Macron, and his ancestors of “tough negotiators” who offered him a second visit to the state. It is unknown if this will stir him up.
We are now in full circle through the contradictory sentiments that plague the White House about this troublesome foreign policy issue that the US administration has delivered in just a week.
Two constants appeared. Putin cares little about European and American pressures. Simply propose the greatest peace offering, with the greatest demands, and reject the upset. Trump appears to be providing personal support to Ukraine and its allies, but whenever Moscow is ready, it is publicly seen expanding the olive branch of a bilateral meeting with the head of the Kremlin.
Intermittently, the White House is eager to telegraph that Putin has limited patience and even expired. Occasionally, even Trump hints at this, vaguely promoting secondary sanctions as a statement that was dumped earlier this week. However, this impatience has not yet been translated into the solid actions Europe wants to see.
The White House benefits from the Kremlin’s skillful baby steps, dishonesty and peace. Russia has done enough to allow Trump to pretend they are serious, but to avoid giving up on the ground at all. On Friday, the issue is complicating with reported demand that Russian territory is not conquering. There are ambiguous and unruly whispers of diplomacy and further discussions about consultations, offering the appetizing promise of the contract without or portraying it. Russia has clearly accumulated troops at the eastern frontline ahead of the possibility of a summer attack, drone images show.
But sometimes moments of clarity come into play. This week has probably helped us to unravel where Moscow really stands, but we’ve also been reluctant to Trump for causing Putin’s pain. Clarity can be offensive, and on Friday, a stern review of Trump’s policies came from his ambassador from Bridget Brink, his former ambassador who resigned last month.
In Op-Ed, Brink explained why:
“Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration was to put pressure on not invaders, but on attackers, not on Russia, but on victims, on Ukraine. As a result, I am no longer able to carry out the policies of the administration. Suffering.”
It may be too early to decide whether Trump’s soft gloves will approach it. However, the US president has deflated the weekly increased tensions and pressure on Moscow by suggesting that progress will not be expected until he meets Putin.
And – as in the case of the elusive summit between Trumps, Zelensky and Putin – don’t expect this smart mix of ego, respect and disgust to bring about results. Will the lessons from the past week be forced to force Putin to concede months of pressure and years of brutal battlefield struggle? Even the final summit between Trump and Putin does not fix the war, but instead resets the clock to diplomacy, and like this week Ukraine will return to zero.
