Will it be Trump who says “the economy is fixed” who will address Congress, or will it be Trump who “feels your pain”? America First Trump or Nobel Pacifist Trump?
Trump’s MAGA company will spend $300 million on midterm elections
President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has raised more than $300 million since his election, an unprecedented amount of money to support Republicans in the midterm elections.
The state of President Donald Trump’s unions is in trouble.
When he delivers his annual State of the Union address on February 24, his audience in the House is likely to include members of the Supreme Court who just outlawed draconian tariffs, his main economic and national security cudgel. A bitter showdown over his aggressive immigration policies has partially shut down key parts of his administration.
And Congressional Republicans will now be watching to see how Donald Trump fares as they prepare for what is likely to be a difficult midterm election.
Call this the battle for Trump’s brain.
Some see his efforts to refocus his message on kitchen issues and even acknowledge their reality as an existential challenge to his country’s political future and to Republicans’ continued control of Congress in November.
That has never been a priority for the president.
Since signing the so-called “Big Beautiful Act” on July 4 of last year, which extended the major tax cuts from his first term, President Trump has been less concerned with the bill and more concerned with his legacy. He has been less involved in the immediate issues that were key to his re-election in 2024 and more engaged in the global war and peace causes he hopes will cement his place in history.
Not to mention his gold leaf brand stamped on everything from the Rose Garden to the Kennedy Center. It is now designated the Trump Kennedy Center in letters above its marble entrance. Some of it remains.
Indeed, the president’s eagerness to circumvent Congress landed him squarely at the Supreme Court, which ruled on February 20 that the president does not have the authority to impose steep tariffs without Congressional approval. The court’s 6-3 decision threatens the very foundations of his economic policy.
During the State of the Union address, not only senators and representatives, but also Cabinet members, military commanders, high court judges and ambassadors from around the world will line up in front of Trump on the House floor. The night offers the grandest venue, largest television audience, and most presidents give the most high-profile speeches of the year.
Will President Trump use this opportunity to offer a positive agenda to encourage Republicans who are reeling from Democratic victories in a series of special elections over the past year? Or does it celebrate the accomplishments he claims to have already achieved?
Let’s see on Tuesday.
When it comes to the economy, victory and empathy
Let’s consider the economy.
Nowhere else is there such a wide gap between what President Trump says and what Republicans in Congress want to hear.
“I think we actually have the greatest economy in history,” Trump told Fox Business. Mainstream economists don’t think that far, but Mr. Trump has cited a strong stock market, stronger-than-expected job growth and cooling inflation as evidence that his policies are working.
He assessed the economic situation as “plus-plus-plus-plus-plus,” dismissing economic worries that can be summed up by the word “affordability.” He calls this “Democrat quackery” and “the work of con artists.”
But affordability is a concern that lawmakers from both parties are hearing from constituents. Economic uncertainty is rising as consumers begin to pay higher costs due to the Trump administration’s tough tariffs and the loss of enhanced insurance subsidies from the Affordable Care Act. So is the sense that positive economic development is returning primarily to the benefit of the rich rather than workers.
A Pew Research Center poll released this month found that a majority of Americans are “very concerned” about a range of tangible costs, including health care, food, housing and electricity. According to a Gallup poll, the percentage of adults who expect to have a good quality of life in five years has fallen to an all-time low, and the decline continued into 2025, when Trump returns to office.
Republican lawmakers voting this fall are hoping for a sympathetic message from President Trump. More “I feel your pain.” Less thinking that “the economy is fixed,” regardless of how you feel.
“People aren’t stupid,” Sen. Josh Hawley, a MAGA Republican and Trump supporter, told NBC News. “They know what it costs to go to the grocery store and what doesn’t cost. They know how much their rent costs. They know how much prescription drugs cost. And all of that is too expensive. And they can’t afford it. And they know it.”
During the 2024 campaign, President Trump harshly criticized his predecessor, Joe Biden, for not doing more to fight inflation. He argued that the economy was rosier than most voters realized and accused the then-president of being out of line.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said Trump and his advisers now appear to be out of touch.
“Trump doesn’t sit down Thursday night and pay his bills and see how his health care is going and see how much gas receipts show up on his credit card,” she said. “You can’t call this a hoax and make people believe it.”
On foreign policy, America First vs. the Nobel Prize
When it comes to foreign policy, President Trump’s actions during his time in office also differ from his campaign messages.
Trump praised his “America First” message during his presidential campaign. This means that countries should focus on domestic issues rather than their role in the world. He promised there would be no more “endless wars” like the one in Afghanistan, the country’s longest, which ended in 2021 after nearly 20 years.
But since becoming president, Trump has engaged extensively in conflicts around the world, and now boasts that he has resolved eight wars and is worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. He recently convened a “peace commission” with an agenda starting with rebuilding devastated Gaza. Last week, he sent senior aides and his son-in-law to a series of negotiations in Geneva over the Ukraine war and tensions with Iran.
He moved his second carrier group to the Middle East to prepare for a possible attack on Iran, despite warnings from allies in the region that it risked triggering a major war.
The problem for some of his supporters is not just the broad global role he advocated for the United States, but also the time and attention he devoted to it. Voters’ priorities tend to be close to home, such as whether they can afford a home or whether the roads in their area are safe.
When Trump flew to Switzerland last month to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told reporters that the president would scale back his international travel this year and increase domestic travel, starting with a focused visit to Iowa to visit farmers hit by tariffs.
On Thursday, he was in Rome, Georgia, and in interspersed remarks he declared that he had already “earned leeway,” a message quite different from the one he was asked to convey.
He was in a congressional district holding a special election in March to replace MAGA supporter-turned-critic Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned in January.
“If we had put America first from the beginning, not our wealthy donor class or our foreign policy, we wouldn’t have had to strategize how to gaslight the American people,” Greene said in a post by X, heckling the White House’s plans for a State of the Union address. “Sending messages won’t solve the problem.”
You can write scripts. can’t make him stick to it
Trump rarely follows a script, even in big speeches.
Consider last year’s speech to a joint session of Congress.
“To my fellow citizens: America is back,” Trump began, reading from a teleprompter.
But for the next 1 hour and 39 minutes, he continued to soar, making it the longest such speech in decades. He praised firefighters (“incredible people” who “voted for me in record numbers”) but decried “wokeness” (“wokeness is the problem”). He paid tribute to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but also added a warning. “Now you know who to blame if something goes wrong,” he ad-libbed.
He also repeatedly blamed Biden for the country’s economic and other woes, something that will be harder to do after more than a year as president.
“You know, we inherited an economic disaster and an inflationary nightmare from the last administration,” President Trump said last year, pointing specifically to egg prices as a sign of Biden’s failures. “As President, I will fight every day to repair this damage and make America affordable again.”
There is that word. Will he say it again this time?
