Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
CNN
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Three energy-rich Gulf Arab countries are competing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into concrete profits.
They have developed personal relationships with the president, collectively pledged to US investment, casting themselves in conflicts Trump wanted to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine to Iran.
Now they are rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit in his second term. The US president is scheduled to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by a visit to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which will extend through May 16th.
Given Trump’s approach to foreign policy, three states offer a lot.
“In Trump’s book, the Gulf countries carve all the right boxes,” Hasan Al Hasan, a senior fellow at Middle East Policy in Bahrain’s Institute for International Strategy, told CNN. They “poverish the trillions of investment in the US economy and spend huge amounts of money on the US arms system.”
Behind this carefully crafted strategy of seducing Trump is to solidify and formalize his position from the Gulf countries, formalize his position as an essential security and economic partner, and to extract as many benefits as possible.
Since Trump took office, relations with the US and Gulf have improved significantly. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were unhappy with our lack of interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Once Trump takes office, they see what Gulf officials called “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to achieve their country’s goals.
From their perspective, it’s time to solidify relations with Washington, and even “ensure greater privileges in relations with the world’s most powerful nation,” said Ebtesam Alketobi, founder and president of Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Policy Centre think tank.
Each of the three countries Trump visits has its own priorities. Here’s what they want from the US and how they achieve it:
Ali Sihabi, author and commentator of Saudi Arabia’s politics and economics, said “security, security and security” is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are most sought after Trump’s visit.
“Gulf countries are looking for peace of mind in the US security commitment to Gulf stability,” Sihabi told CNN. “Trump has many priorities and is known to lose interest soon, and they want to continue to attract him.”
Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia were close to finalizing a groundbreaking defense and trade deal, but transactions over Saudi Arabia’s claim that Israel would commit to the path to a Palestinian state have stagnated.
Firas Maksad, managing director of the Middle East and North Africa of Eurasia Group, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Trump is likely to go ahead with key deals regardless of normalization.
Riyadh also calls for US cooperation in developing a civilian nuclear program, which has claims to enrich uranium, which raises US and Israeli concerns over the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Uranium, when enriched to high levels, can be used to produce nuclear weapons.
With the support of the White House for Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program, American companies were able to win lucrative contracts.
Riyadh appears to be framing his relationship with the US as a win-win. In March, Trump said if he invests $1 trillion in the US, he would go to Saudi Arabia. “They agreed to do that, so I’m going to go there,” he said.
Saudi Arabia did not confirm the numbers, but in January announced plans to expand its trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years.
However, in order for Riyadh to diversify away from oil, it will need to sell oil with healthy profits to fund that transition. The recent price drops, partly due to Trump’s tariffs, could undermine those ambitions. Trump has revealed he wants to lower oil prices and is at odds with Saudi Arabia’s need to earn high incomes to fund that economic transformation.
Perhaps more than any other Gulf state, the UAE sees investment as the heart of its strategy to deepen relations with the US and secure returns, and has the money to back it up. Among the world’s wealthiest per capita countries, he has pledged trillions of US investment. Abu Dhabi has branded the “capital capital.”
“Expanding trade and investment is a way to strengthen this strategic partnership,” said Alketbi. “The US is a key security guarantor for the Gulf region and provides a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities in line with the long-term Gulf development plan.”
In March, the UAE announced a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment plan focusing on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing and energy. According to the Washington embassy, existing US investments already totaled $1 trillion.
“The United Arab Emirates sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a key contributor to AI and advanced technology,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, told CNN. “The commitment to invest $1.4 trillion is in line with the UAE’s goal of diversifying the economy from dependence on hydrocarbons to ensure the prosperity of the country in the future.”
However, it will not be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve the stated goal of becoming a global AI leader by 2031 without the US microchip.
During the last days of former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US tightened AI exports and was suppressed to maintain advanced technology from the hands of foreign enemies like China, which will take effect on May 15th. The UAE is one of the countries facing restrictions while Trump’s travel, and you might expect them to be lifted during Trump’s travel.
On Thursday, the US announced that Trump would withdraw the Biden-era curb set.
Qatar is the Gulf Arab state with the most formal security ties with the United States. It holds the largest US military equipment in the Middle East. This is described by the State Department as “essential” for US military operations in the region.
Last year, the US quietly reached an agreement to expand for another decade at a vast base in Qatar. It also revised the 1992 defense cooperation agreement with the United States. This is intended to further strengthen our security partnership.
In 2022, the Biden administration also designated Qatar as the major non-nat alley.
Qatar was a key mediator in many conflicts, from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. Experts say it is part of an effort to maintain its relevance in Washington’s eyes.
“The Gulf countries view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,” Al Hasan told CNN. “They were able to position themselves as mediators as essential partners on Trump’s political agenda.”
Doha also maintains close ties with Syrian new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Ahmed al-Shara is trying to ease a nation of long-standing sanctions in the West.
Syria is expected to become an important issue Qatar will raise alongside Trump during his visit, an official with knowledge of the issue told CNN on Thursday. Doha is pushing the Trump administration to lift sanctions against Syria under the Caesar Act, officials added that Qatar is wary of providing financial support to Syria without Washington’s blessing.
Trump’s visit is about what he can ultimately escape from the three Gulf countries, experts added that each of the three countries is hoping for a series of new deals that will benefit both parties.
“He’s here because he believes that it’s in the US economy, perhaps his interests and those around him to do those trade here with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar,” McSad said. “So look forward to a big announcement.”
