Democrats face nightmare scenario in California gubernatorial race
Polls show Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are leading in the California gubernatorial race, while eight Democrats split the liberal vote.
- Donald Trump has endorsed former Fox News host Steve Hilton over fellow Republican Chad Bianco for California governor.
- Mr. Hilton and Mr. Bianco emerged as the top two candidates in early polls of the nonpartisan primary in the state, which is usually dominated by Democrats.
- Political experts believe Trump’s endorsement could backfire and hurt the Republican Party’s rare chance to win over Democratic strongholds nationwide.
SAN FRANCISCO – On the surface, it seemed innocent enough. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump endorsed former Fox News host Steve Hilton as the Republican candidate for California governor.
But Mr. Trump’s endorsement also has implications for Mr. Hilton’s opponent in the Republican gubernatorial race, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who, like Mr. Hilton, is a big supporter of Mr. Trump.
Hilton, who is known for supporting President Trump’s electoral reforms, including eliminating mail-in voting, and Bianco, who is known for winning more than 650,000 votes in last year’s California redistricting, has surprisingly emerged as the top candidate in the deep blue state, where redistricting has turned blue.
Opinion polls for California’s June 2 nonpartisan primary, including those conducted this week, give the state’s Democratic Party a slight lead. It’s a surprising early feat in what is arguably the most influential and heavily Democratic state in the country, and the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, could advance to November’s general election.
Meanwhile, President Trump has not endorsed any Republican candidate in the controversial runoff election between incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, creating significant uncertainty. Although the president hinted in early March that an endorsement was imminent and that he was leaning toward Cornyn, Trump has placed his decision in a “holding pattern” to see if candidates support the SAVE America Act, a Republican bill that would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote.
Presidents frequently use their endorsements to purge the Republican Party of candidates they don’t like, especially in Congress. His support is especially coveted in primaries where candidates are vying for the Republican seat on the party ticket.
He has been successful, with 95% of the primary candidates he supported winning elections in 2018, 97% in 2020, and 93% in 2022, after two years out of power, according to a Washington Post analysis. However, Trump’s chances of success in the general election are not very high, as his choices have raised concerns among Republican officials.
Trump’s failed endorsements include 2022 Senate candidates Blake Masters of Arizona, Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker of Georgia. There are also candidates for governor Kari Lake of Arizona and Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania, but both lost to Democrats. Trump endorsed Lake again in the 2024 Senate race, but lost.
However, some political experts believe President Trump’s decision to support Hilton could backfire, given that the president continues to have a war of words with Gov. Gavin Newsom and is waging literal war against Israel and Iran. Before the Republican state convention begins April 10 in San Diego, election observers are beginning to consider whether Mr. Trump’s involvement could tip the balance in an already crowded and contentious race with several Democratic challengers desperately seeking one of the two slots to run the nation’s most populous state.
“Choosing one candidate over the other may have ruined a Republican’s best chance to become governor,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant who served as communications director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the last Republican to hold the office. “We haven’t had anything like this in over 15 years. It could be another 15 years. Maybe even longer.”
The president’s endorsement comes ahead of the party’s convention, where amidst the pomp and festivities, the proverbial elephant in the room may chatter quietly about whether President Trump’s endorsement of Hilton will help or hurt his chances of seizing the top spot in a party that governs more than 39 million Californians and oversees the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Silicon Valley’s Menlo College who has studied the state’s political landscape for decades, said Trump’s declining approval ratings in recent months may have opened the door for Democrats to advance to the final race and win the midterm elections.
“Given the unique primary system here in California, I think Mr. Trump destroyed Mr. Hilton’s chances of becoming governor,” Michelson said. “Hilton’s odds have likely gone down dramatically.”
Trump’s support may have caused an unenthusiastic gubernatorial race
In an April 6 Truth Social post announcing his support for Hilton, President Trump said he would help the candidate turn California around “before it’s too late,” citing high crime rates and taxes.
“With federal aid and a great governor like Steve Hilton, California should be better than ever! Steve Hilton has my full and complete support. He will be a great governor and, importantly, will never let you down!!!,” Trump wrote.
Hilton said he was “very honored” to have the president’s support. In addition to his call to reduce poverty and unemployment, the former cable news host wants to make the state “California” by cutting current gas and electricity prices in half and making it more affordable to buy a home.
“As I said last night after the president announced his support, I will fight to save our beautiful state of California like nothing you have ever seen before,” Hilton said in a video posted to his social media.
“Trump’s relationship with Hilton goes back many years,” said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst based in the San Francisco Bay Area. “With that endorsement, Hilton will likely receive the majority of the Republican vote in the primary.”
Sobel argues that it is highly unlikely that the Republican Party will win the governor’s race. He said Schwarzenegger, a well-known actor and moderate Republican who led the state from 2003 to 2011, is considered an exception. David McCune, a veteran political science professor at Sonoma State University, said California, the current Democratic stronghold, is “bluer than it’s ever been.”
One in two registered voters in the state are Democrats, but “purple people” make up one in four Republicans and one in five voters who haven’t checked their party affiliation, McEwan said.
“California’s Republican Party has been in the political wilderness for almost 20 years,” McEwan said. “I don’t see that changing anytime soon.”
Although Hilton accepts Trump’s endorsement, McCann said the irony is that he believes the candidate is trying to push him to the center on issues in the debates, “perhaps with purple voters in mind.”
Stutzman, who worked as a Republican consultant with Schwarzenegger, said that by endorsing one candidate, Trump may have taken the Democratic Party out of a “big panic” mode where Republicans would be in the top two.
“We think 38 to 40 percent of the vote in June will go to Republicans. If you have two people, you could split it in the 19 to 20 percent range, and they’re pretty close in some ways,” Stutzman said. “Then there’s a good chance we’ll have two Republicans in the runoff.”
Stratzman believes that Trump’s support will likely move Hilton up, while also giving Democrats room to move into second place. The strategist is hopeful that President Trump will reconsider and support both candidates, giving both candidates a chance to win the top two spots in the bipartisan primary.
But Mr. McEwan, a professor at Sonoma State University, said Mr. Trump is unpopular overall among a majority of California voters, who are angry that he hasn’t sent enough federal funds to send federal troops and immigration officials to the state and help victims of the Los Angeles wildfires.
“If Hilton gets to the general election, it will hurt him,” McCann said. “I think this is the president trying to decide the winner in June, not November.”
But President Trump’s endorsement could ignite a primary election in which California voters traditionally don’t participate, Sobel said. A survey of more than 5,000 registered voters conducted by the University of California, Berkeley’s ISG on March 18 found Hilton with 17% of the vote and Bianco with 16%.
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell was third with 14%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter with 13% and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer with 10%. The other five Democratic candidates each received less than 5% of the vote.
“Republicans are going to have a problem until Democrats decide on a front-runner,” Sobel said.
Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, penned an open letter last month urging prominent Democrats to withdraw from the race and warning that a scenario in which two Republicans competed for governor was “unlikely” but “not impossible.”
California is important to national politics
California is a critical state for Democrats, experts say. In addition to leaning Democratic, it is also home to the party’s last presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, and future candidate Newsom, whose final term as governor could end next year.
“Look, California voters are Jekyll and Hyde voters,” McCune said, citing high turnout in off-year elections for last year’s redistricting initiative, Proposition 50. “They want to be asked to dance, and they say no to potential partners and still expect to be asked to dance.”
Michelson, the Silicon Valley scholar, said that prior to Trump’s endorsement, the Democratic gubernatorial vote split may have worked in favor of Republicans.
“It absolutely could have happened. I’m not the only political scientist to say this,” Michelson said.
Mr. Michelson said Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Hilton will turn many Republican voters into supporting Mr. Hilton to the detriment of Mr. Bianco, and will draw Democratic voters to the polls seven months from now.
“And that Democratic candidate is almost certainly going to be the next governor of California,” Michelson said.
admit mistakes
Michelson said he believes Trump ultimately played a role in influencing the campaign and will come out unscathed.
“He’ll say, ‘Look what I did. They were divided, and my support will make a difference, and Steve Hilton will be in front of voters in November,'” Michelson said. “And when Hilton loses, he’ll say, ‘This is a very blue state with coastal elites, and of course they elected another Democrat.'”
Michelson said he doesn’t think Trump would admit he made a mistake in that scenario, and “it would be weird if he did.”
“I don’t think Mr. Trump would admit he was wrong. It would be strange if he did.”
Contributor: Zach Anderson, USA TODAY
