Tropical Cyclone Jerry Path Tracker, Spaghetti Model, Forecast

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Tropical Strom Jerry continues to swirl in the Atlantic Ocean, and forecasters predict the storm could strengthen and become a hurricane within days.

The National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 9 advisory that Jerry was located about 555 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph and strong gusts. Forecasters said it was expected to “gradually strengthen” over the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday, Oct. 10 or Saturday, Oct. 11.

According to the Hurricane Center, Jerry is moving west-northwest and is expected to turn northwest by late Thursday, Oct. 9, before heading slightly north on Friday and Saturday. The storm is expected to pass near or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late today and tonight.

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Is it possible that Hurricane Jerry will occur soon?

Fox 5 meteorologist Alex Forbes is tracking a possible tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean. This system has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days.

Fox – 5 Atlanta

The Hurricane Center said in an advisory that 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected across the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands through Friday, Oct. 10, with local storm totals expected to reach 6 inches, creating a risk of flash flooding.

Additionally, the swell generated by Jerry is beginning to reach the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands and is expected to spread west toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday night, October 9, before heading toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Cyclone Jerry Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. This does not indicate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm can move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical storm jelly spaghetti model

Illustrations include a variety of predictive tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best-performing models to make predictions..

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are formed over warm water in the tropics. Thunderstorms can form over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the cluster will swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical cyclone.

A tropical cyclone becomes a named tropical cyclone when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 miles per hour. When wind speeds reach 114 miles per hour, a storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Prepare for hurricanes now

Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends, “Get disaster supplies while shelves are stocked and get your insurance check early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.”

  • make an evacuation plan. If you are in danger of a hurricane, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to start planning where you’re going and how you’re going to get there.
  • Prepare disaster prevention supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’ll need supplies to not only survive the storm, but also likely for the long-term aftermath, NOAA says.
  • Get an insurance check and fill out the paperwork with your belongings. Contact your insurance company or agent today to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or replace your home and belongings. Note that home insurance and renters insurance do not cover floods, so you will need separate insurance for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program.
  • Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down your hurricane plan and share it with your family. Decide where your family will gather, and be sure to include locations outside the city in case you evacuate.
  • strengthen your home. Now is the time to make your home more resilient to hurricanes. We cut down trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact-resistant glass. Seal openings in exterior walls.

Gabe Hauari is USA TODAY’s national trends news reporter. You can follow him at X @geuna Or email Gdhauari@gannett.com.

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