The Virginia special election on April 21 will affect power relations in Washington for the remainder of President Trump’s term.
Will redistricting efforts favor Republicans or Democrats?
The question many are wondering is whether the 2025 redistricting efforts are meant to protect democracy or weaken representation.
Virginia voters will soon step into the center of redistricting battles across the country in a special election that will affect which party controls Congress during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
The state is scheduled to hold a referendum on April 21 that could allow the Democratic-led Legislature to temporarily redistrict congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The proposed map could help Democrats flip four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
The election is the latest in an unusual mid-decade campaign between Democrats and Republicans seeking to redraw congressional lines and tip the scales in their favor in the midterm elections. The ups and downs began last summer when Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, proposed new electoral maps aimed at reversing Democratic-held seats.
Trump said at the time that Republicans “have the right to pick up five more seats” in the state. Leaders in Democratic-run states quickly responded with redistricting pledges of their own, including California, where voters approved a constitutional amendment allowing voters to redraw the state’s electoral maps.
Virginia Democrats are hoping for a similar result in April, although it is more difficult to predict.
Once considered a battleground state, Virginia is known for its more moderate Democratic politics. California favored former Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 points in the 2024 election, while Virginia tilted toward Democrats by only about 6 points.
Democratic groups have invested large sums of money into the campaign. Television ads and mailers that have filled the state in recent weeks include a message from former President Barack Obama, telling voters: “We’re counting on you.”
Here’s what else you need to know about zoning referendums.
What will happen to the Virginia Democratic Party’s amendment?
The question on the ballot asks voters whether the Virginia Constitution should be temporarily amended to allow the Legislature to adopt new electoral maps in mid-decade for future elections. The bill would return Virginia to a standard bipartisan redistricting process in 2030.
But voters may not have the final say on redistricting proposals. The state Supreme Court is poised to hear closing arguments in a lawsuit over the legality of the amendment after the election. If the amendment passes, the court could rule to invalidate the results under the state constitution.
When is Virginia’s special election?
Early voting for Virginia’s redistricting referendum began on March 6th. Voting day is Tuesday, April 21st.
Who is likely to win a special election in Virginia?
Few polls have been conducted on the election, making it difficult to predict the outcome. A Roanoke College poll conducted February 9-16 found that Virginia voters disapprove of redistricting, from 52% to 44%. A poll released in January by Christopher Newport University found that Virginians support a redistricting move in mid-decade, 51% to 43%.
Early voting numbers as of March 26 appear to favor Republicans. So far, more early voting has occurred in Republican-leaning districts where voters are thought to be more likely to vote against redistricting measures, according to data compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project.
Which states have redrawn their electoral maps?
Five states have redrawn their congressional districts since President Trump first urged Texas lawmakers to redraw their electoral maps in July.
- Texas: Under the president’s will, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed legislation in August 2025 aimed at red flagging five of the state’s U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterm elections.
- California: In response to President Trump’s call for a “very simple redraw” in Texas, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed an amendment to California’s constitution that would allow for the redrawing of districts. Voters in the state approved the measure in November, creating five Democratic-leaning districts in the state and essentially negating Texas’ move.
- Missouri: Missouri’s Republican-controlled Legislature has approved new maps that will likely give Republicans new seats, but the state’s Democratic Party plans to challenge the bill.
- North Carolina: The Republican-controlled North Carolina General Assembly also approved a redistricting plan that would create one more Republican-leaning district.
- Ohio: Republicans previously held 10 of the Buckeye State’s 15 seats. In October, the state’s redistricting commission unanimously approved a new map that increases the number of Republican-leaning seats to 12.
Three other states (Maryland, South Carolina, and Washington) are also considering redistricting measures.
