Kiev, Ukraine
CNN
–
Ultimately, it’s a Kremlin plan being unfolded, and it seems the White House has little to do about it.
Ukrainian President Voldimia Zelensky’s decision to send a Minister of Defense to meet with a low-level Russian delegation in Istanbul was an inevitable forced and difficult choice. That audience is a man: US President Donald Trump.
Kiev must show that he is willing to take a step to nurture all kinds of peace. Otherwise, Trump slowly watches as the Prokremlin voices around him rise to volume, completely bored of the process and/or limits aid to Ukraine.
But ultimately, the peace process is going exactly what Russia wants to do. Slowly use the Kremlin as a scheduler.
Last week, France, the UK, Germany and Poland stood with Ukraine, demanding an unconditional ceasefire of 30 days on Monday, learning a lot about Putin and Trump’s true feelings.
First, the main revelation is that the Kremlin is not afraid of further sanctions, European pressure, and not covered by Trump. For now, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees the potential domestic pitfalls of photography opportunities as much as the US president and his Ukrainian enemies, far greater than the damage that could cause Trump’s rage.
His rejection of this initiative is an calculated risk that could already be rewarded. Trump’s response – suggesting that “nothing happens” until he and Putin meet – throw all expectations of diplomacy into the wind until the two sides hold a bilateral summit. Putin allows him to pursue any course at Liberty. The White House head recognizes that he believes there will be progress until the two presidents meet in person.
It is not impossible that a bilateral meeting could take place soon. A Friday speech in Istanbul could create a leadership summit over the weekend. But it is likely that Putin enjoys watching the peace process move forward with enough false integrity that the White House won’t drop it. Why are you in a hurry? His forces are gathering near the frontlines in the eastern region, clearly with Russian strategic goals in mind.
Putin’s decision to reject Trump’s overture reveals two important parts of his thinking. He wanted to withstand further “massive sanctions” that France threatened to refuse a ceasefire. And so was the summit in Istanbul. And he also correctly foresaw and gambled Trump’s limited anger. The Kremlin head is pleased to reject three days of speculation about whether he will be present, by awaiting the formation of the Russian Istanbul delegation.
Putin may have had bilateral negotiations with Trump as part of his speech or as part of his explicit terms or concessions prior to the presidential summit, or he may have never intended to accept Zelensky’s offer. We may never know.
Zelensky faces an awkward moment in which he has to hover around the lecture, just in case he escalates suddenly, but doesn’t watch Putin wait for his next move. A handy summit – pre-planned, he said – waiting in Albania on Friday, but he must urgently return to war.
It is slowly becoming clear that Trump will continue to show respect from the extra sanctions and consequences for Russia that Europe and his White House suggest. The limited “technical” nature of the Russian team in Istanbul provides enough reason for Trump to protect his hopes of progress and delay the addition of pain to Moscow. The talks could fly ahead, with the Kremlin offering a series of maximalist demands, and Ukraine angeringly demanding a ceasefire that Russia constantly rejects.
Even if Trump officials were added to the mix on Friday, there will likely be minimal progress and we will talk about further consultations. And that’s exactly how the Kremlin wants it.
