Pope Leo talks about what he’s grateful for ahead of this year’s Thanksgiving
Pope Leo encouraged people to focus on gratitude as they sit around the table this Thanksgiving.
What will the housing market look like next year? Here are some of the best guesses from industry insiders on many of the most important things, like rates, prices, sales, and some fun additions (like spa bathrooms).
It’s also worth noting that many industry experts are increasingly predicting divergence in the country’s housing outlook. Odeta Cusi, deputy chief economist at First American, calls it a “two-speed market,” with regions that are expected to see more growth and regions that have become too expensive or too risky to continue the boom they have seen in the past few years.
Mortgage interest rates in 2026
As of the first week of December, the average full-year 2025 interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.64%, not far from last year’s forecast. As for next year, most industry experts are predicting a slight decline, but probably not as much as many buyers expect.
- Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.4%
- Realtor.com: 6.3%
- Khushi: “Low 6”
- Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors: “About 6% on average… It’s a modest decline that will improve affordability.”
- Fannie Mae: 6%
Housing prices in 2026
- NAR: 4% increase
- Realtor.com: “Home prices will rise 2.2%. However, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for the second year in a row.”
- Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS Chief Economist: 0.9% increase
- Mortgage Bankers Association: down 0.3%.
Home sales volume in 2026
- NAR: 14% increase
- Lisa Sturtevant: 9.0% increase
- Fannie Mae: Existing home sales increased 7.8%
- MBA: Existing home sales increased by 6.3%
“As more homes become available online and prices improve, we expect bargaining power to shift slightly toward buyers, but younger and first-time buyers will continue to face financial hurdles,” Daniel Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, said in a statement accompanying the group’s annual forecast.
The housing market is bifurcated
“Low inventories in the Northeast and Midwest are keeping conditions relatively tight and price growth stable, while parts of the South and West remain soft,” Cusi wrote. “With insurance premiums and other maintenance costs rising, especially in coastal areas, the gap could widen further.”
Sturtevant agrees that tighter conditions will support price increases in the Northeast and Midwest. “AI-driven high-tech markets such as San Francisco and San Jose are seeing a resurgence in demand for housing, which will further accelerate price growth over the next year,” she added. “We expect market conditions to cool in the Florida and Texas markets, where inventories are surging, as well as in the Seattle, Portland, and Denver markets, where demand is subdued.”
Analysts at Realtor.com believe this divide will extend to the rental market as well. “The South and West will benefit most from rent softening due to significant new construction and already easing prices.” But some “high-density, high-cost metros,” namely New York City, will not see any rent relief.
Americans will continue to ‘nest’ after 2026
Zillow’s trend outlook predicts a greater emphasis on improving health at home. Buyers may be drawn to a dedicated meditation space, smart cleaning technology or a “spa-inspired bathroom.”
