CNN
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Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost their loved ones, homes, and livelihoods, but such disasters can also bring opportunities as military dictators stick to power.
Myanmar’s military rulers have carried out brutal civil wars across Southeast Asian countries for the past four years, sending columns of military forces into bloody rampages, torches and bombing villages, massacre residents, imprisoning enemies, and having young men and women join the army.
The junta, led by a widely condemned army chief, overthrew Aung San Suu Kee’s democratically elected government and established himself as a leader.
But like most aspiring strong people, Senator Min Ang Fröning’s rules are volatile. He and his companions have been internationally sanctioned and spurred, the economy is in tatters, and his army has lost key territory in a multifaceted war of crushing against determined resistance.
On some accounts, he has little control over 30% of the country.
Therefore, on March 28, when a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread devastation, the general moved rapidly and strengthened his position with a rare plea of international aid.
Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a doctoral student in political science at Cornell University, said:
“The humanitarian crisis gives him an excuse to open a channel that has long been closed.”
These openings included a face-to-face meeting between the junta leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim last month, and currently has the revolving chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN). Regional blocs have shunned high levels of consultation with Myanmar since the coup to avoid justifying the junta.
Following a meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, Anwar said he was having “outspoken and constructive discussions” with the public, focusing on humanitarian assistance to earthquake-hit communities and expanding a militarily declared ceasefire to promote the delivery of aid.
“For Min Aung Phrase, there is now a political basis by securing even a veneer of local legitimacy. He can argue, “Look, my neighbor trusts me.”
Some say it’s time for the country to engage with Myanmar’s military rulers and promote dialogue and peace.
Four years of war destroyed the country. With three million people evacuated to the battle, the earthquake only deepened an already tragic humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people needed aid.
“The main concern is humanitarian situations. Sometimes, when there is a crisis of this kind, it’s an opportunity for all parties to come together and think about the interests of the people… maybe that can lead to some kind of dialogue process.”
Over the past few months, Min Aung Hlaing has enjoyed a series of diplomatic involvement.
As the body was still pulled out of the shaking tile ble, the general was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a bystander of a regional meeting in Bangkok.
Rights groups and civil society organisations said his presence at the BimStec summit amounts to a gathering of legitimacy for loans to war criminals.
India said the bilateral conference, which was established to promote disaster relief, provided the opportunity to promote military government for “comprehensive dialogue” and emphasize that “there is no military solution to the conflict.”
The meeting came a month after Min Aung Frening’s famous state visit to Russia to support his cooperation with President Vladimir Putin, his longtime ally and main arms supplier.
In particular, for the leader of the junta, domestic legitimacy to maintain his administration is important. And local support for his planned election, scheduled for later this year, is the first step to ensuring it.
Since taking power, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised elections.
But in most Democrat camps in exiles or prisons, Suu Kyi’s National Federation of Democrats will dissolve, and the widespread oppression of the people of the military will never be considered free or fair, observers say.
Min Aung Hlaing’s March invitation to Belarus’ election observers, Europe’s last dictatorship, appeared to underscore their claims.
“We must be very clear that inclusive dialogue is necessary for elections to be reliable,” said Sihasak, now the Executive Director of the Asia Council for Peace and Reconciliation.
“It’s not a blank check,” he added. “It’s an opportunity for us to get involved, but not a way to support legitimacy, but an opportunity to impress the administration that they have to make concessions.”
Some observers say that when false promises litter around military history that hide atrocities-free flow, the junta cannot trust making concessions.
Even though Malaysia’s Anwar promoted the so-called military ceasefire to support earthquake-hit communities, the junta had restricted aid and bolstered a deadly campaign in airstrikes in opposition regions, which reportedly killed dozens of civilians.
Analysts warn that the military will use greater involvement as an excuse to normalize diplomatic relations and to entrench its authoritarian rules.
“If you negotiate with the devil without a red line, it’s an accomplice,” said Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and member of the Southeast Asian network of women’s peace mediators.
Kamal said the international community was at risk of being “deceived by military performances.” There, elections will become “an illusion of democratic transition.”
When parts of the country were destroyed by powerful Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the then military junta paved the way for semi-church government, but advanced in a constitutional referendum that solidified the military’s influence on the country’s politics.
With a new military draft constitution in place, the administration called the National Peace Development Council and made the election public in 2010.
“We are pleased to announce that Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar Research Program at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“The people of Myanmar have fully clarified their distrust in the military statement regarding elections since 2021, and see that elections in the current situation could lead to more violence.”
Those who have a first-hand experience of that violence say their actions speak more eloquently than words.
“Talking to Min Aung Hlaing will not bring about a political solution and will not satisfy what the majority want,” said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nations Defense Force, which is fighting the country’s southeastern army.
The Karen National Coalition, which has fought the military since independence from Britain over 70 years ago, said that comprehensive dialogue cannot first occur without a ceasefire and the provision of humanitarian assistance.
“Before everyone sits together and solves the problem, Min Aung Frening needs to stop all violence in the country. Without it, we cannot accept dialogue,” a Knu spokesperson Taw Nee told CNN.
However, this year there is hope from several quarters that can make progress.
After consultations with the leaders of the junta, Malaysian Anwar held a virtual meeting in ASEAN’s first public face-to-face meeting that was widely praised than with the prime minister of the National Unified Government, who was entrusted with a coup with Myanmar’s shadow lawmakers’ government.
Nug, considered a legal government in Myanmar, has repeatedly insisted that all stakeholders be involved in solving the crisis.
“We believe 2025 will be the year in which elections come and with this crisis, we can win or lose peace,” said former Thai minister Sihasak.
To get there, international partners need to “connect dialogue with verifiable measures,” such as “real humanitarian corridors, the release of political prisoners, and binding assurances of comprehensive consultations.”
“If not, engagement simply expands the lifeline of the junta at the expense of Burmese’s desire for democracy,” he said.
