The latest forecast for the upcoming East Coast nor’easter.

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A nor’easter is forecast for the East Coast this weekend, but as of Friday, February 20th, the amount and amount of snowfall remains difficult to pinpoint.

“While an East Coast storm is expected to develop this weekend, the path of this potential nor’easter is not yet determined, and the impact of snow, rain, wind, and coastal flooding from New England to the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday (Feb. 22) through Monday (Feb. 23) is uncertain,” Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said in an online forecast Friday morning.

According to AccuWeather, the storm is rapidly intensifying and could bring heavy snow to parts of Interstate 95, including New York City and Philadelphia.

However, the situation should soon become clearer. “Forecast totals and timing should become more focused by late tonight,” the National Weather Service in Philadelphia said in an online forecast discussion posted early Friday morning.

Regardless of the final outcome, “we are still in a ‘wait and see’ period with this storm, so please take precautions now in case the worst-case scenario unfolds,” the National Weather Service’s forecast office in Sterling, Virginia, said in an online forecast, urging caution and preparedness. “It’s never a bad idea to stock up on supplies.”

Storm trajectory determines impact

In recent days, computer models used by meteorologists to predict the weather have struggled to agree on the future path of storms that have not yet fully formed. The closer the track is to shore, the more snow there is, and the farther offshore the track is, the less snow there is.

“The key issue regarding heavy and light snow along I-95 is the path of the coastal storm,” Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather’s vice president of forecast operations, said in an email to USA TODAY. “Its path will depend on how quickly the storm intensifies.”

Erdmann agreed, pointing out that “the main uncertainty is where this offshore low pressure system will reach. That will affect who will experience the snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding, and the magnitude of those impacts.”

How much snow is likely to fall?

The heaviest snow is expected along the coast from New Jersey to Massachusetts, where more than 4 inches of snow could accumulate, and more than a foot in the northern Appalachians, Erdman said.

From Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, precipitation is expected to fall primarily as snow, but colder temperatures may limit accumulation on pavement during the day, AccuWeather said.

“During the daytime on Sunday (February 22) and Monday (February 23), when snowfall is not severe, highways and city streets may become wet or slushy in places due to near-freezing temperatures and the higher sun angle of late February,” Depodwin said.

“However, there will be periods when snowfall is high enough to exceed critical temperatures and sunlight, especially at night,” he added.

Another snowy weekend

This is the fifth straight week of snow expected in some Northeastern cities, according to AccuWeather.

Overall, New York City recorded 22.3 inches of snow this season, close to the historic average of 22.1 inches, after a period of temperatures 9.4 degrees below the historic average.

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