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Surprise tends to be less welcome. That’s because they are often (but not always) negatively diverse.
Are retirees in store in 2026 for social security-related surprises? probably. In particular, one might be the biggest surprise of all.
Something that’s not too surprising
The exact amount of Social Security Cost Adjustments (COLA) for next year could be a bit surprising to some retirees. But I don’t think it should Too much Surprising.
Retirees will have to wait five and a half weeks (whether they give it or take a few days) for the Social Security Agency (SSA) to announce the 2026 COLA. The agency needs inflation data to complete the calculations in September 2025. That information should be published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-October.
However, there is a pretty good idea as to what the next increase in Social Security benefits will be, thanks to the non-profit senior advocacy organization The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). Each month, TSCL updates a statistical model designed to predict the next cola. The latest forecast is Social Security Cola in 2026 at 2.7%.
Certainly, TSCL may need to slightly modify Cola’s forecast after incorporating the inflation count for August (it will not be available until mid-September). September inflation data may make the actual COL published by SSA different from TSCL’s forecast. However, it is a big bet that the increase in Social Security benefits is pretty close to the organization’s forecast.
An unpleasant surprise
The average monthly Social Security retirement check for July 2025 was $2,006.69. 2.7% Cola converts to $54.18 per month. However, most retirees should not expect to pocket a full social security increase.
If you are over 65, your Medicare Part B premium may be deducted from your Social Security benefits. Perhaps the biggest surprise for retirees in 2026 is that these premiums could increase significantly more than last year. Also, if Social Security benefits are close to average payments, an increase in premium could wipe out about 40% of Coke.
Medicare councillors predict that Medicare Part B Premium will increase by 11.6% next year, almost double the 2025 increase. On average, the monthly premium is $21.50 more. This is the largest dollar increase for Medicare Part B Premium since 2022, an increase of $21.60.
If Social Security Cora for 2026 is 2.7% as predicted by TSCL, this expected Medicare Part B Premium Hiking offsets 39.7% of the average Social Security increase of $54.18 per month. Many retirees who don’t want a higher premium could be kept for obviously unpleasant surprises when they see how much extra money they’ll receive from Social Security next year.
What can a retiree do?
Apart from trying to reduce overall spending or work part-time to increase income, is there anything a retiree can do to prevent many of the Social Security Cola in 2026 from being wiped out by the higher Medicare Part B Premium? The good news is that there are some actions you may be able to take.
First, consider the possibility of switching from traditional Medicare to Medicare Advantage plans. You will need to pay an even higher Part B premium next year, but some Medicare Advantage plans offer you a lower deduction and maximum out-of-pocket value that will save you money.
If your income is limited, you may be eligible for federal and state programs that provide financial assistance. For example, the Medicare Savings Program (MSP) helps to partially or fully cover Part B premiums, deductions, and coinsurances, and is available in all states.
What if you have a high income? You may be subject to an income-related monthly adjustment (IRMAA), which is an additional fee that increases your Medicare Part B Premium. Irmaas is based on adjusted gross income (MAGI) revised for two years, so reducing this fiscal year’s income will not be useful in 2026. However, if you have major life events such as unemployment, marriage, spouse death, or divorce, you can appeal to SSA to lower Irma.
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