The eastern Pacific has seen historical activity as the Atlantic remains dormant. Predictor refers to confusing planetary phenomenon.
Why is the Atlantic Ocean so quiet so far?
So far, there have already been multiple tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific, but nothing in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Eric was formed in the eastern Pacific on June 18th, becoming the fifth-name storm of the East Pacific season to date.
In some numbers, the Eastern Pacific continues its historic run, recording five-name storms for the first time in June before the third week of June, WPLG-TV 10 meteorologist Michael Lowry said via email newsletter on June 17th.
This activity was attributed in part to a large-scale climate pattern known as the Madden-Julian vibration, an eastward interference with clouds, rain, wind and pressure. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it will cross the tropical planet and return to its first starting point in 30-60 days.
It affects weather, including hurricane layers around the world, along with other ambiguous patterns such as the Rossby and Kelvin waves.
What does a fast start in the Pacific mean for the Atlantic hurricane season?
Some storms could cross Central America from one ocean to another, but there is actually no overall connection of the activity, Accuweather Hurricane expert Alex Da Silva told USA Today.
“There’s not much we can say we can make a fast start towards the eastern North Pacific and portend the Atlantic,” Colorado State Meteorologist Phil Crozbach said in an email to USA Today.
“The relationship between Atlantic hurricane activity, just off Mexico’s west coast, and hurricane activity in the eastern North Pacific (as we saw this year), is pretty weak,” he said.
Therefore, early activity in the Pacific would not be pre-braining the storms that are coming in the Atlantic. Dasilva said that Madden-Julian oscillating pulses had arrived in the Eastern Pacific, but fell apart before they reached the Atlantic.
What has led to all the storms in the Eastern Pacific so far this season?
The pulsation of storms moving eastward through tropical regions around the world – Madden Julian vibration – “It helped kick the gusts of storm activity in the Eastern Pacific,” Laurie said.
Specifically, the enhanced phase of MJO, characterized by increased rainfall and increased air, creates an environment that further encourages hurricane development, while suppressed phases have the opposite effect.
The Atlantic remains quiet – for now
The Eastern Pacific runs about a month before schedule for all activities, while the Atlantic is getting back on track even more slowly from a typical start, Laurie said. “The model is restricted to the possibility of basin development at least in the middle of next week.”
The next chance for a widespread storm to return to the tropical Atlantic will not be until the first week of July.
Other planetary phenomenon during play
Formally known as convectively coupled Kelvin waves, Kelvin waves are believed to have interacted with the Rossby waves in the Americas, creating a favorable pattern that helps produce both Dalilla and Eric formation in the southern part of Mexico, although the tropical development of the Atlantic Basin is limited.
Quinton Lawton, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, reaches up to 4,000 miles in length and can range in width by thousands of miles, Kelvin’s waves travel along the equator in the same direction as Madden Julian. Perturbations in waves can promote thunderstorms and rainfall.
Scientists have begun to understand more about how planetary phenomena work together to create and control tropical storms and hurricanes.
“We found these waves to be really important to tropical cyclones,” Lawton said. Kelvin and Rossby waves come from atmospheric energy and travel along the equator. Just as Madden Julian orbits the Earth, interactions with these atmospheric waves can promote the formation of storms.
