Israel defeats the US and attacks Iran
The United States has launched military strikes and “large-scale combat operations” against Iran, targeting Iran’s missile capabilities.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump and members of his administration have repeatedly advocated a military strike against Iran, arguing that the Middle Eastern country poses a serious threat to the United States.
They say Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of attacking the United States.
But national security analysts and experts on Iran and its ruling regime say these claims are false or based on vastly exaggerated assumptions.
Matthew Bunn, an arms control expert at Harvard Kennedy School, said of claims that Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons: “That’s not true.”
The United States and Israel launched a military strike and “large-scale combat operation” against Iran on Saturday, February 28, targeting the country’s missile capabilities and its leadership.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in a coordinated attack, Israeli sources confirmed to USA TODAY. President Trump also announced the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. But Iran’s Foreign Ministry insisted on the same day that he and President Massoud Pezeshkian were “safe and sound.”
According to Iranian media, 201 people were killed and 747 injured in the attack, Reuters reported, citing the Red Crescent Society, a humanitarian group active in the region. Official estimates of the number of deaths and injuries have not been confirmed by U.S. or international authorities.
Trump administration officials briefed reporters after the attack on condition of anonymity, saying the attack was necessary to protect Americans from an “unbearable risk” to the United States from Iran’s long-range missile development.
What does President Trump say about Iran’s weapons development?
President Trump said in his State of the Union address last week that Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that could soon reach the United States. He reiterated those claims in a video posted on social media after the joint U.S.-Israel attack.
The United States had been negotiating with Iran in hopes of striking a deal that would avoid military conflict. The third round of indirect talks ended on February 26 without much progress, but negotiators from both countries were scheduled to meet again next week.
A senior government official said in a briefing with reporters that Iran refuses to even discuss its ballistic missile program inside or outside of brokered talks with the United States. This was unacceptable to the Trump administration, officials said.
Another U.S. official said the U.S. has intelligence indicating that Iran is struggling to rebuild three nuclear facilities that were bombed by the U.S. military last summer.
Officials said they determined during negotiations that Iran sought to maintain its uranium enrichment capabilities and use them over time to make nuclear bombs. Iran has said it aims to use enriched uranium for purposes other than weapons, such as energy production. One official said the administration has offered Iran free fuel forever. But Iran refused, citing a need to enrich uranium, officials said.
“The fact that they were reluctant to accept free nuclear fuel told us a lot that they were trying to buy time,” the official said.
Iran has a stockpile of nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium that is 60% pure, the official said. Uranium enriched to 60% can be converted to 90% of the level needed to make nuclear weapons within a week, officials said.
How quickly could Iran build an atomic bomb?
But national security analysts said Iran does not have the capacity to enrich uranium by 90%.
After the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities last June, President Trump announced that the facilities had been “destroyed.”
Bun, who has analyzed the long-term risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, said that after these attacks, Iran had no active enrichment facilities.
“Key facilities and many key experts of the Iranian program have been destroyed,” he said.
Ban said Iran could have salvaged some of its enriched uranium stockpile before or after the June attack. But when it comes to facilities that produce weapons-grade uranium, he says, “There’s nothing like that.”
How long will it take for Iranian missiles to reach the United States?
Experts also question the administration’s claims that Iran was close to building ballistic missiles that could reach the United States. According to Reuters, US intelligence reports do not support these claims.
Three sources familiar with the assessment told the news agency that President Trump’s claims appear to be exaggerated.
Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, with missiles capable of hitting Israel, U.S. military bases in the region and parts of Europe. It is also developing a so-called space launch vehicle to put satellites into orbit, which experts say could be converted into an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
But Daniel Kurtzer, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the George W. He also served as U.S. ambassador to Egypt under former President Bill Clinton.
Mona Yakubian, director of the Middle East program and senior adviser at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran is still 10 years away from developing a missile capable of attacking the United States.
Will the Iranians overthrow the government?
In video remarks following the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, President Trump called on the Iranian people to rebel against Iranian leadership and “take over the government.”
“This will probably be the only chance for generations,” he said.
But Boun and Yacoubian said the attack was unlikely to spark a large-scale push for regime change in Iran.
Yacoubian said Iranians had learned lessons from last summer’s 12-day war with Israel and had already drawn up succession plans in the event of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death.
“The Iranian regime is probably in a better position to weather the turmoil than the Iranian people,” she said.
Ban said Iran’s ruling regime could be weakened if Khamenei is killed in the recent US and Israeli raids. But Iranians may be reluctant to rise up against the government after thousands of protesters were massacred by Iranian security forces during a nationwide crackdown on demonstrations in January.
“The regime is in an even more desperate situation now. If I were an Iranian protester, I would be very nervous to stand up in a situation where it appears that we are acting in concert with a foreign enemy,” Ban said.
Michael Collins writes about the intersection of politics and culture. He is a veteran reporter who has covered the White House and Congress. Follow him on X: @mcollinsNEWS
Francesca Chambers covers the White House. Follow her on X: @fran_chambers
