College football week 12 consecutive picks
The 12 candidates before the week of “The Snap” include Clemson-Louisville, Oklahoma-Alabama, Iowa-Southern California, Utah-Baylor and Texas-Georgia.
- Texas A&M overcame a 27-point deficit to defeat South Carolina 31-30, marking the largest upset in school history.
- Quarterback Marcell Reed’s strong second-half performance may have made him the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
- In other important games, Oklahoma defeated Alabama and Notre Dame defeated Pittsburgh, both of which affected the makeup of the national playoffs.
No. 3 Texas A&M, which lost 30-3 to South Carolina at halftime, remained undefeated, made school and SEC history, and was on track to reach the conference championship game, potentially putting quarterback Marcell Reed at the front of the Heisman Trophy race with a big upset for a 31-30 victory.
The Gamecocks’ lead steadily narrowed, and the Aggies took the lead for good on EJ Smith’s 4-yard touchdown run four minutes into the fourth quarter. At that point, a reversal was a foregone conclusion. South Carolina was now falling apart in a classic A&M second half barrage.
The 27-point comeback was the largest in school history. Since 2004, SEC teams are 0-286 when trailing by 27 points or more.
A win over the Siamcocks doesn’t change the numbers for the SEC Championship. That path still goes through a Black Friday showdown with No. 10 Texas and will be influenced by results in other conferences, which will determine how many teams end November with a league loss.
But by avoiding this hole, the Aggies can maintain two paths to the 12-team tournament. With one of the three teams in the Bowl Subdivision still remaining undefeated, A&M could lose to the Longhorns and lose again in the SEC Championship, still holding room for a comfortable at-large berth.
On an individual level, Reed’s second half could overtake Indiana’s No. 2 quarterback Fernando Mendoza to take the Heisman Trophy driver’s seat, finally bringing clarity to one of the most volatile races in recent history.
After two interceptions and a fumble, the Gamecocks got back to scoring in the first half, with Reed rebounding and completing 16 of 20 for 298 yards and three scores in the final two quarters.
After a dominant six-quarter run that started in the second half against LSU and continued into last week’s win over Missouri, the sluggish start against USC should serve as a wake-up call heading into the game that will determine where the Aggies land in the final playoff rankings.
But A&M joins No. 10 Oklahoma State as one of the clear winners in Saturday’s game, along with losers like No. 4 Alabama and South Florida.
winner
Oklahoma
The Sooners converted 3 of 13 third-down attempts, averaged 2.6 yards per carry, gained 212 yards of offense, and still defeated Alabama 23-21, securing their biggest win of the Brent Venables era and likely vaulting them to the top of the at-large league. A plus 3 sales margin made the difference. With the offense stuck in neutral and unable to move at the line of scrimmage, the Sooners’ defense made a number of big comebacks, from a pick-six in the first quarter, to a fumble recovery, to setting up a go-ahead field goal in the fourth quarter, to a game-clinching fourth-down stop near midfield with less than a minute left. In the grand scheme of things, this upset is good news for the SEC, which could send at least five teams to the tournament.
virgin
The No. 9 Fighting Irish passed their last real test of the regular season, defeating No. 23 Pittsburgh 37-15 by 147 rushing yards, scored by Jeremiah Love. Jeremiah Love’s score effectively sealed the All-American title with just two games left in November. This match ended early. Notre Dame led 21-3 at halftime and pushed that lead to 28-3 on the first drive of the third quarter. Currently 8-2 with Syracuse and Stanford ahead of them, only a surprise failure against a dominant opponent could keep the Irish out of the playoffs.
southern california
After trailing 21-7 at the half and having a hard time moving forward against Iowa’s physical defense, 18th-ranked USC scored 19 unanswered points to defeat the Hawkeyes 26-21 and remain in the Big Ten and playoff conversations. By retaining serve at home, the Trojans will face No. 6 Oregon State, which is still alive in the Big Ten race, next weekend. If Michigan wins a scoreless game against Ohio State, it will advance to a tiebreaker and earn a spot to face Indiana at Lucas Oil Stadium. The ability to handle the Hawkeyes highlights the growth USC has made since last season, which was a very disappointing Big Ten debut.
Michigan
Dominic Zvada made a 31-yard field goal as time expired, and the No. 17 Wolverines defeated Northwestern, 24-22, and were just one shot away from winning the Big Ten title and making the playoffs. Leading 21-9 early in the fourth quarter, Michigan turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions, including two interceptions by Bryce Underwood, and mounted a 50-yard drive with two minutes left to escape with the road win. The team in the nick of time to beat the Wildcats may not have a chance to beat Ohio State and then Indiana to earn the automatic bid, but the Wolverines are at least still in the tournament conversation and could become the third of four Big Ten teams in the field with an upset of the Buckeyes.
virginia
In the ACC, 19th-ranked Virginia bounced back from last week’s blowout loss to Wake Forest to beat Duke 34-17 and move one step closer to the conference championship game. One of the big reasons for the rebound was that Chandler Morris, who missed the game against the Demon Deacons with an injury, returned to center field for the Cavaliers and threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns. Coming off a rare big win in a close year, Virginia takes next weekend off to face rival Virginia Tech.
loser
Alabama
Looking forward, the big impact of the loss to OU will be felt in where Alabama ranks in the playoff rankings and whether the Crimson Tide ultimately earns a bye or hosts in the opener. After losing in the opener to Florida State, Alabama has won eight straight games and is in a very good position to make the tournament and potentially be the top seed in the SEC. But the Tide, who conceded the game due to an inadvertent turnover, will need to avoid disaster in the Iron Bowl against Auburn to avoid potentially missing out on the league championship game.
south florida
South Florida’s 41-38 loss to Navy dropped it to sixth place in the American League, ending any realistic chance of making the playoffs, but re-opening the door for the Midshipmen and East Carolina. This is very unfortunate. USF had a key win against Florida in September and was in position to advance to the American Championship Game behind one of the top FBS offenses. The blame lies with a defense that has fallen apart in recent weeks, allowing 338 rushing yards to Navy. The big winners after this loss are Tulane, which now has a clear path to the championship game, and No. 25 James Madison, the Sun Belt leader who benefits from the turmoil in the United States.
bobby petrino
Petrino lost 23-22 to LSU and fell to 0-5 in the interim, so he has no chance of securing a full-time job to replace Sam Pittman. That’s good news for the Razorbacks — there are several strong candidates on the market, even if Rhett Lashley appears ready to stay at SMU — but bad news for those hoping for a repeat of Petrino’s previous run in Fayetteville. Long before Petrino ever got on the bike, things were badly malfunctioning.
