Following the Republican’s single-digit victory in Tennessee, Republican lawmakers are already talking about a shift in political strategy for next year’s midterm elections.
What to watch for in the Tennessee state election
The results of the Tennessee state election could show how well Republicans can do in the midterm elections.
WASHINGTON – Republicans won the December 3 special election in Tennessee. But some in the Republican Party fear this could soon represent a loss.
Although conservative candidate Matt Van Epps won a widely expected victory, Democrat Aftin Behn’s overperformance in the Volunteer state boded potentially poorly for President Donald Trump’s coalition.
With then-presidential candidate Trump winning by 22 points and holding a single-digit lead in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District last year, Republican lawmakers are already considering a shift in political strategy to maintain control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
The next morning, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) told reporters that the nine-point victory was “a pretty easy victory.” However, he acknowledged that the party had shown that “there are some challenges ahead of us”.
“Obviously we need to be mindful of the fact that the message has to be clear,” he said. “But I think the Republican Party will be united across the country.”
Other conservatives in Congress have expressed similar confidence. But they acknowledged that a change in message may be warranted following the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in November.
“Midterm elections are tough for those in power,” said Sen. Jim Justice, R-West Virginia. “We just have to worry.”
Republicans should ‘do better’ by touting affordability, lawmaker says
Republicans still control both houses of Congress. But with only a year until the midterm elections, the majority in the House of Representatives is already slipping. Several special elections in the coming months, as well as the impending resignation of Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are tipping the scales in Democrats’ favor.
These political calculations, combined with Democratic victories in states like Virginia and Georgia in November, are creating a rift among Republicans who believe the party must act quickly to prevent harsh losses in 2026.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) told USA TODAY that Republicans haven’t done a good enough job communicating how they’ve been working to lower costs for Americans over the past year. He specifically pointed to the president’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and its “tip tax exemption” provision.
“We have to realize that we have to work for our votes,” he said. “We’re not telling the rest of the story, and we need to start telling it more.”
But under President Trump’s leadership, it may be difficult to stay on top of the Republican message into next year.
“The term ‘affordable’ is a fraud by the Democratic Party,” the president said at a cabinet meeting on December 2nd.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told USA TODAY he was satisfied with Tennessee’s election results, despite the lower margin than usual. Still, he agreed that his party could always refine its pitch to voters.
Ultimately, he stressed, the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will depend on turnout.
“What will determine the outcome next November is whether conservatives emerge and whether common-sense centrists emerge,” he said. “If people stay home and only angry leftists participate, we’re going to have a very bad election.”
Zachary Schermele is a Congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can email us at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and on Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social..
