See why gas prices will soar as Iran cuts off the Strait of Hormuz oil route

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Iran has said it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key Middle East export route that carries 20% of global oil flows, in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli attacks, halting oil shipments and sending oil prices soaring.

The announcement came two days after the start of the war, which spread across the region. At least five oil tankers in the strait were damaged and 150 ships were stranded.

“The strait is closed,” an Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said on March 2. “If anyone tries to cross the strait, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships on fire.”

However, the US military announced that it had defeated the Iranian navy from the air.

As of noon on March 3, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the world benchmark, was hovering around $83, an increase of about 25% since the start of the war.

The national average price of a gallon of gasoline rose about 18 cents from March 1 to March 3, according to GasBuddy. It is unclear whether or how long gasoline prices will continue to rise.

Let’s take a closer look at the important waterways here.

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More than 3,000 vessels use the strait each month. Most of them transport crude oil, refined oil (the equivalent of about 20 million barrels of oil per day), and liquid natural gas from docks in the Persian Gulf to ports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Some oil shipments go to Europe, and about 4% of crude oil exports go to the Americas.

How has tanker traffic changed over time?

This animation provided by Marine Traffic shows a visible drop in vessels passing through the Channel between February 27th and March 3rd. Tankers marked in red can be seen waiting on either side of the waterway.

Where is the Strait of Hormuz?

The 160-mile-long Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea.

The strait is one of three major waterways that enable the export of natural gas and oil from the Persian Gulf to Europe and North America. Others include the Bab el-Mandeb River and the Suez Canal. Iran’s southern border runs along the length of the Gulf.

How have U.S. gas prices changed?

GasBuddy tracked that the national average for regular gasoline rose from $2.941 per gallon on March 1 to $3.12 per gallon on March 3. If the war continues, prices could rise further. According to NBC News, retail gasoline prices change by about 2.5 cents for every $1 change in crude oil prices.

President Donald Trump told reporters on March 3 that oil prices could remain high “for some time.”

As soon as the war ends, “these prices are going to go down. I believe they’re going to go down even further than they have before,” Trump said. The president also said the United States has the ability to fight Iran “forever” without running out of arms.

Prices for consumer goods related to crude oil, such as gasoline and household heating oil, are also moving at roughly the same rate, so prices could also rise in the coming days and weeks. USA TODAY reported.

Where was the oil tanker attacked?

The tankers reported to have been attacked are:

MT skylight |Oil/product tanker (Palauan flag).

  • where: Approximately 5 nautical miles north of Khasab, Musandam province, in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • when: March 1st
  • what happened: The ship was hit and a fire broke out. Four crew members were injured and 20 were evacuated.

MKD Vyom |Product tanker (Marshall Islands flag).

  • where: 44-50 nautical miles off the coast of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman.
  • when: March 1st-2nd
  • what happened: It is believed that a projectile from the drone boat hit the ship, causing a fire in the engine room. One crew member was killed. The rest were evacuated.

hercules star |Tanker (Gibraltar flag)

  • where: Approximately 17 nautical miles from Mina Sakr, UAE.
  • when: March 1st
  • what happened: Report of a strike. The ship continued sailing.

stena instructions |Tanker (US flag)

  • where: At anchor in Mina Salman, Bahrain.
  • when: March 2nd
  • what happened: The ship was damaged in an airstrike as part of Iran’s attack on Bahrain. No casualties were reported on board, but one dockworker was killed and two others injured.

Ate Nova |Asphalt tanker (Honduran flag)

  • where: Strait of Hormuz.
  • when: March 2nd
  • what happened: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the ship was attacked and caught fire off the coast of Khor Fakkan.

What happens next?

The Trump administration has not given a clear timeline for how long the war will last. President Trump said it could take about four weeks.

Vice President J.D. Vance suggested the U.S. is in a “multi-year” conflict, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio predicted that “the biggest blow is yet to come.”

In a March 3 social media post, President Trump also promised insurance and military protection for maritime trade.

“If necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”

Contributed by Francesca Chambers, Michael Loria, Zach Anderson, Janine Santucci

SOURCE USA TODAY NETWORK REPORTS AND INVESTIGATIONS. Reuters; U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gas Buddy; Oh.com; Marine Traffic; Globalmaritimetraffic.org

This is a developing story and may be updated.

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