Here’s how the government shutdown will end:
Melina Khan of USA Today has categorized multiple outcomes of the ongoing government closure.
It’s the first day of partial US government closures, how long will it last? A few days? A few weeks? Only Capitol Hill and the White House can answer that question, but that hasn’t stopped people from placing bets on future events.
Polymarket and Kalshi will open a market during the standoff period, with users expecting a long-term federal closure.
Republicans control both the House and Senate, but need at least seven Democratic votes to pass the spending bill from the Senate.
Democrats are using that leverage to continue and expand the tax credits for around 24 million Americans who purchase insurance through the Affordable Care Act. So far, they have rejected support for government spending bills that do not address the issue. The representative says he is open to considering amending the ACA tax credit, but he only supports a simple suspension bill that will fund the government until November 21st. This law does not include changes to ACA subsidies.
When do government markets think governments will resume?
Polymekit activities suggest that users expect the shutdown to continue until at least mid-October.
The site gives a 35% chance of a shutdown that lasts more than 15 days, resulting in a government shutdown that has extended volumes of over $200,000.
The forecast market gives the same odds for shutdowns that last between about one and two weeks. The market for government reopening between October 6th and October 9th and the market for reopening between October 10th and October 14th both show a 28% chance.
This site has a reopening date between October 3rd and October 5th, with a 1% chance of returning before October 2nd.
When do you think the government will resume calci?
Kalshi’s actions indicate that users think the shutdown is likely to last at least four days, perhaps more than 10 days.
This site has an 89% chance that the shutdown will last “more than four days”, with an 87% chance that it will last “more than five days” and a 54% chance that it will last “more than ten days”. However, the chances of a shutdown that lasts for more than 15 days are 33% immersed.
A short-term closure appears to be certain for Kalshi users, with shutdown periods shorter than 3 days and better odds above 90%.
What is the forecast market?
Forecast markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi offer “event contracts” that allow you to trade with the outcome of a variety of events, including politics, sports, and natural disasters. Each contract has a YES-OR-NO option that pays the winner a dollar.
According to Brian Flaherty of the Alts.co newsletter, the contracts are traded in a similar market to commodity futures.
“In sportsbooks and casinos, we bet directly on the platform,” writes Flaherty. “But event contracts are a type of peer-to-peer betting that deals directly with other bettors.”
Flaherty warns that contract prices “almost reflect collective beliefs” but not true probability.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan revealed in a September 3 social media post that the company received a “green light” from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to resume its US operations. The measure follows previous 2022 charges to provide illegal event-based options, as reported on the streets.
The pseudo-gambling format was distorted in the “conflict of interest” episode of “South Park.” Jeff Edelstein, a columnist for the game’s gambling news outlet, said the episode “cuts at the heart of an ongoing debate about where we draw the lines.”
“Should you be able to bet on war? Natural disasters? Personal tragedy? These are no more abstract questions,” he wrote.
Contribution: Joey Garrison – USA TODAY;Reuters
