CNN
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For months, the speech in Kiev was a very long-awaited Russian attack aimed at increasing more in the eastern region of Ukraine. So far, it has been overwhelming, but the Russians have made some profits and have significantly strengthened the number of troops in some areas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue territorial interests as the ceasefire talks become the back seat. Last week he fixed that it was one of his important ways to justify an unprovoked invasion.
“I think there’s only one Russian and Ukrainian people,” he said. “In this sense, everything in Ukraine belongs to us.”
Still, Ukrainians have launched counterattacks in some regions, rapidly developing the domestic arms industry. And Russia’s wartime economy is facing stronger headwinds.
The Russian army is about to advance in several regions on the frontline of 1,200 kilometers (746 miles). Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Silsky said this week that there are 111,000 Russian troops in some parts of the frontline alone. According to Ukrainian general staff, this is comparable to the area’s roughly 70,000 Russian troops in December last year.
Silsky also claimed that Russia’s penetration in the northern region of Smee has ceased. The War Institute, a Washington-based think tank, says Ukrainian forces have regained Smie’s territory and the pace of Russia’s progress has slowed.
“We can say that the waves of attempts to “summer attacks” launched by the enemy from Russian territory are on fire,” Silsky argued.
But it’s a complicated picture. Recently, Russian infantry attacks have gained positions at the borders of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken.
Deep State, an open source analyst in Ukraine, argued that Ukraine’s “defense continues to collapse rapidly, and the enemy is making great progress in constant attacks in the region.”
The Kremlin has long argued that the campaign will continue until it retains all of the Eastern Donetsk, Zapolizia and Herson regions. (It already accounts for everything except Luhansk slivers).
At the current speed of progress that took years. However, it appears that the conflict will likely continue to drag on from the end of the year to 2026, as the Trump administration is not so committed to pushing for negotiations for a ceasefire.
The three-dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of inventive drone-driven special operations and very basic infantry attacks.
At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine’s bold attack in early June with Russian strategic bombers used drones operated from trucks deep in Russian territory.
Ukrainian security services reported another drone attack on Saturday, reporting that it had been held down had caused significant damage to Russian air bases in Crimea.
In contrast, Russian soldiers on foot and motorcycles are sometimes groups of fewer than dozens, pushed into abandoned houses in eastern Ukraine, with drones for covers, but no armor. This is an approach that forces changes in Ukrainian tactics. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that the defense was camouflaged to the terrain and became smaller to avoid detection.
While infantry protects or takes away territory, drones continue to play a greater role in shaping conflict. The Russians are overwhelming the air defense and stirring up cheap, mass-produced drones designed to allow some of the missiles to pass through. The Russians increasingly used this tactic to attack Ukrainian cities, particularly Kiev.
Ukrainian President Voldimia Zelensky said on Sunday, “There were 477 drones in our sky, with most of them Russian and Iranian Shahed and 60 missiles of various types, Russians targeting everything that sustains life.”
The Russians “we aim to use up to 500 (Iranian design) Shahedes per night and combine them with ballistic and cruise missiles to emit air defenses,” Umerov said.
Zelensky repeated pleas for more Patriot missile batteries and other Western systems. Last week, Trump said the US should “consider” due to the massive attack on Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to buy patriots directly or through a fund established by the U.S. Ukraine mineral trade.
Both sides are generating all types of drones at incredible speeds. Ukrainian security services produce nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed drones by Russia every day, with around 6,000 decoid drones plus about 6,000 stocks. Last week, Russians have used more than 23,000 small “Kamikaze” drones at the frontline, according to Ukrainian military general staff.
It’s a never-ending lace in design and production. Silsky recently said Russia has developed the advantage of fiber-optic controlled drones.
Drone warfare “is a constant intellectual struggle. The enemy regularly changed algorithms and Ukraine adapted tactics accordingly,” Weeloff said. “A solution that was highly effective at the beginning of the war lost it over time as the enemy changed its tactics.”
Ukraine is stepping up the production of long-range drones it used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transportation. Umerov said “tens of thousands” will be produced this year, in addition to more than 4 million battlefield drones.
Both sides continue to build a defence industry that will allow them to continue fighting, even if the scale of Russia’s production is far greater than that of Ukraine. The huge Russian military conglomerate Rostec produces an estimated 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine.
CEO Sergei Kemezov claimed this month in a meeting with Putin that Rostec’s production had 10 times higher since 2021, and that revenue last year rose to an eye-opening $46 billion.
However, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Russia’s military budget is approximately 40% of total spending, more than 6% of GDP. It has shocked inflation, with Putin admitting last week that this year’s growth is “a lot more modest” to combat price rises. He even suggested that defence spending would decrease next year.
Maksim Reshetnikov, a senior Russian official who is Economic Development Minister, said, “Based on current business sentiment, it is to me that I am transitioning to a recession.”
Elvira Nabiurina, head of Russia’s central bank, opposed Reshetnikov, but warned that financial buffers like the National Reserve Fund are almost exhausted.
“We have to realize that many of these resources have been exhausted,” she told the St. Petersburg International Forum.
Putin himself acknowledged the risk, and although some experts predicted stagnation, he said “it should not be allowed under any circumstances.”
Russia’s long-term prognosis can be both economically and demographically gloomy, but in the short term it will fund an army of over half a million men near Ukraine or the border, allowing it to take away several kilometers here. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian army is able to create much greater power than Ukraine.
Putin said last week that his eyes are still very high in prizes.
