Russia will unleash airborne fears about Ukrainian civilians, making it seem like it’s winning, experts say

Date:




CNN

Stanislav Martynyuk, a third-grader, is extremely proud of his school photos. His hand is folded on his desk. His eyes are surrounded by glasses that make him look like a serious, adorable, eight-year-old scholar.

This image of Stanislav, along with similar snaps of his younger sister Tamara (12) and brother Roman (17), was displayed at a makeshift memorial at Korostissiv’s school, and was shared on social media after the death of three brothers when the Russian strike struck the house over the weekend.

The trio was one of at least 14 civilians over the weekend in the latest wave of Moscow’s escalating air attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Analysts aim to create the impression that the brutal campaign is part of a deliberate strategy by Russia, which creates the impression that it is dominant in conflict, undermines Ukraine’s morale and puts more pressure on Kiev’s Western allies.

Russia first began to step up its air attacks against Ukraine last fall after successfully expanding domestic production of its own version of its Iranian-made Shahed drone, the most frequently used drone.

However, the frequency and magnitude of these strikes rose again in January after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Since then, all five of Russia’s biggest drone attacks have been launched. Four out of five have come in the past 10 days, according to a tally compiled by CNN.

Trump has ended the war in Ukraine as one of his priorities. During his election campaign, he said he would end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office.

The photo shared by Korostyshiv's Gustav Olizar Lyceum was found in the show of Stanislav, Tamara and Roman Martynyuk, where three brothers were killed on a Russian strike.

But despite the promises, Trump became increasingly anxious in Moscow and Kiev. He has been flip-floping while threatening to threaten to punish Russia with more sanctions if he doesn’t register in the ceasefire proposal, and suggesting that he could leave the issue completely.

Over the weekend, after Russia launched its biggest air attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, Trump said on social media that Putin “absolutely went crazy!” Before telling reporters, “I’m not satisfied with what President Putin is doing.”

But Trump also denounced Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky, as “American Silence” suggests that Putin encourages him to continue his onslaught. He said Zelensky is causing harm to his country because “everything from his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it and I should stop it.”

Analysts at the WAR Institute, a US-based conflict monitor, said Russia’s brutal air campaign is part of a strategy that creates the illusion that it is an effort to lower the morale of Ukraine, and that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is avoided and that it will convince the West that it will support Ukraine.

Putin knows that the only way Russia can quickly win a war in Ukraine is for the US chief, Ukraine’s western ally, to stop supporting Kiev in war efforts.

Ukraine’s European allies have seen an increase in cases of sabotage, cyber incidents and arson attacks related to Russia. This is an attempt by Moscow to put more pressure on a Kiev-friendly government by showing that voters in favor of Kiev will come with costs.

At the same time, Putin has successfully stopped Trump’s proposed ceasefire talks.

Instead of immediately rejecting Trump’s ceasefire proposal, the Russian president has accused him of introducing new demands and not accepting Kiev.

When given an ultimatum, Putin ignored it and called for direct consultations between Ukraine and Russia.

Trump has repeatedly shown that he does not want US military aid to Kiev to continue as is. Earlier this year, the US temporarily suspended aid load to Ukraine for Trump’s disagreement with Zelensky. Although aid has been revived, the incident gave Putin a clear indication that Trump is willing to abandon Ukraine.

Trump also revealed that he believes Ukraine is behind the scenes. He spoke to Zelensky “no card” at a debate-elliptical office meeting in February, attempting to put pressure on the talks on Ukrainian leaders.

However, Russia has an air superiority over Ukraine, so Moscow can terrorize the Ukrainian population every day, but it is far from “winning” the war.

Major Russian analyst Mark Galeotti previously told CNN that both sides have explained that the ground situation in Ukraine is losing. “But that means Ukrainians are losing faster,” he said.

When Russia began full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin had expected to take over the country within a few days.

That didn’t happen as Ukraine had an incredibly strong defense. And as Western support for Kiev increased, Ukraine was able to push back and reclaim the massive territorial belt seized by Russia during its first invasion.

Since the Ukrainian military released the city of the southern city of Carson in November 2023, the Ukrainian frontline has not moved in such a critical way. Russia has made progress in several regions along the frontline, but has not been able to break through or take over the metropolitan cities.

An explosion lit up in the sky above Kiev during a Russian drone strike on Saturday.

However, the outcome of the Russian strike was horrifying. At least 209 civilians have been killed across Ukraine, the deadliest month since September 2024, according to Ukraine’s UN Human Rights Surveillance Mission.

It was a particularly fatal month for Ukrainian children. It’s the worst since June 2022. 78 were injured on top of the 19 people killed.

May was equally scary for Ukrainian civilians. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko told Telegram that the weekend attacks once again showed Russia’s targets were “terror and death.”

Klimenko said the parents of three murdered Martinuk children were injured on strike and his mother was seriously injured.

Roman, the oldest child, was only a few days away from graduating, but said in a statement at the school where all three attended.

Tamara’s teacher Olejodovaniuk said on Monday that CNN was a very difficult day for the school.

Signs of war were around them. The school windows were blown away by pressure waves from the explosion. The commemorative commemoration at the entrance to the school was filled with flowers and gorgeous toys.

Hodovaniuk said the news shocked the community to its core, and some children were so distraught that they couldn’t come to school and participate in the monument.

“No one adjusted this, but most of the school was wearing black,” he said. “Tamara was very good and modest like all the children in her family.”



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