Kyiv
CNN
–
Advances the possibility of second-rate sanctions on US President Donald Trump’s 50-day suspension on Russia, we present the Kremlin with a window into leveraging its incremental profits over the last few weeks.
Russia is believed to be days or weeks away from rising summer attacks, probably using an army of 160,000 people that Ukrainian officials say are accumulating near the frontline. However, over the past two weeks, Russia has also put its strength in a better position to bring small but important advances and cut off the Ukrainian troops in three important towns, Pokrovsk, Kostiantinibka and Kupiansk, which are on the forefront of the eastern region.
The Kremlin appears to have not been hit by the new Trump deadline, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday. “50 days – it used to be 24 hours. Previously it was 100 days.
Analysts said the new time frame was successful for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals. Kiel Giles of Chatham House wrote Tuesday that during the diplomatic stage he also provided space to Moscow. “The 50-day deadline gives Russia plenty of time to develop its own alternative plan, and repeats Washington again through diplomatic ploys that Trump may be willing to accept… The latest extension of Trump’s latest extension to Putin will extend Ukraine’s suffering for the same any period.”
John Laff, head of foreign policy at the new Eurasian Strategic Centre think tank, said the summer attacks have already been ongoing for months and “Russians are undoubtedly bolstering their efforts both on the ground and in the air.” He said the recent onslaught of Ukrainian cities probably reflects slow progress at Moscow’s frontline, aiming to “support morale the population and zap the will to fight.”
“Putin is very confident that for several months Ukrainians are aware of the shortage of personnel in progress in this campaign, and there is a shortage of certain weapons systems,” Raf said, adding that Moscow wanted to make Ukraine’s defenses too thin. “I’m going to see it continue in at least 50 days.”
The incremental advances that Moscow made in these three towns were quite expensive. However, frontline mapping by Ukrainian surveillance service Deep State, as well as reports from the region, shows Russia’s progress to line up all three.
In the past 72 hours, Russian forces have approached Rosinke, a key settlement to the northeast of Pokrovsk, the main hub of Ukrainian forces, besieged by Moscow for several months.
This advance coincides with the west of Pokrovsk, where Russian troops are moving to surround the village of Udacine, allowing them to increase efficiency and challenge the supply route to Pokrovsk.
The Ukrainian commander, who passes through Call Sign Musicians and leads the drone company for the 38th Marine Corps Brigade, has been working near Pokrovsk since October. He told CNN that the Russian attack had been ongoing for a while. “We probably haven’t reached the peak yet,” he said. “But they’ve been moving forward for a while and they’re doing very well.”
The musician said that Rodynske’s defense was important. “The enemy understands this and relies on it. If they move forward from Rodynske, the situation becomes important. There is one or two roads out there, and they can control it, and logistics are blocked. That’s a logical move on the enemy’s side.”
He said reinforcements were urgently needed there or they were at risk for the repeated siege and retreats seen around the town of Avdivka in early 2024. The Ukrainian army was detained in Avdivka for several months until there was a lack of numbers and resources to maintain grip in the town.
Ukrainian military blogger Bodan Miloshnikov wrote that if Rodinke was captured, this would “complete the siege of the entire left flank” around Pokrovsk, adding an equally pessimistic rating on the right flank and south. “If this continues, there are few options left. There will be either a forced garrison to retreat under the threat of siege, or a fierce battle with a semi-siege with an unclear outlook.”
Russian military telegram channel “Voennaya Khronika”, translated into “military record”, said before that Pokrovsk would fall like Avdiivka and Bakhmut, “a frontal halt after consecutive flanks, pressure on the supply line, and strategic fatigue.”
Deepstate’s mapping also shows progress towards Kostyantynivka (another important hub in the eastern region), which Russia has approached quickly over the past two weeks From the southeastern and southwest, they are now mercilessly attacked by attack drones.
Ukrainian blogger And then go with serviceman stanislav buniatov, call sign Osman The advancement further brings Moscow’s troops to the Dnipropetrovsk region, an area that was originally not part of Putin’s territorial targets. Daily conflicts “will destroy 70-90% of the enemy’s personnel and equipment, but the enemy is moving forward and everyone understands why,” Osman writes.
Misleading reports from Ukrainian commanders to their superiors have been hindering their defense, Deep State posted Wednesday. “The majority of the enemy’s success is lying to reporting on the real-world status quo. This makes it difficult to assess risks and respond to changes in the situation from above. This is a major problem with devastating consequences. Lies destroy all of us.” The post highlighted the region south of Pokrovsk, as it is particularly vulnerable to the failure of this internal Ukrainian.
While Russian progress is heading north of Kupiansk, it presents another challenge to Kiev’s often over-stretched army. With Moscow’s advance from Holubivka since June 23rd, the settlement of Radkivka is now heading towards the management of key access roads north of Kupiansk.
Kupiansk is one of the main towns east of Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, and by managing it, it will help secure an estimated 1 million cities.
