CNN
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Ukrainian President Voldy Mil Zelensky may meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday.
The possibility of the two men facing each other has caused great excitement, but the Kremlin has refused to say that they have spent days of justification and excuses for Putin’s absence, who has come to Turkish and Russian officials.
The talks are unlikely to have immediate results, and they almost certainly won’t bring about President Donald Trump’s elusive “deals” since returning to the White House in January.
But despite the warning, the direct meetings between Kiev and Moscow at all levels will mark a milestone in the conflict. The two are not known to have held an in-person meeting since shortly after Moscow launched a full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
This is what we know.
The talks were first proposed by Putin in response to an ultimatum of a ceasefire or rescue given to Moscow by Ukrainian European allies on Saturday, when leaders from Germany, France, Poland and the UK demanded that Russia accept the 30-day ceasefire proposal or face a new round of “large” occupations.
Putin ignored the ultimatum and instead proposed a “in-person meeting” between Russia and Ukraine.
This is probably a delayed tactic by Putin, and has successfully unfolded his departure several times in the past. But it appears to have backfired.
Europeans and Ukraine initially said they could not hold talks before a ceasefire was agreed, but that changed quickly when US President Donald Trump was involved. In a social media post, he publicly urged Zelensky to “hold a meeting now.”
Putin had not proposed a one-on-one with his disgusting Ukrainian counterpart. He said he hoped to resume his speech in the spring of 2022, with top level diplomats present, not the leader himself.
However, Zelensky raised his stake by announcing that he was planning to travel to Turkey itself and asking Putin to do the same. The Ukrainian leader has made it clear that he will not meet other Russian officials, claiming that “everything in Russia depends on Putin.”
Trump, who is currently on a tour of the Middle East, is adding pressure by suggesting that he might go as well as “if it helps.” The idea was supported by Zelensky, who said Ukraine would “thank” Trump for his presence. Trump told CNN on Wednesday that Putin “hopes I’m there.”
This has made the Russian leader a bit tighter.
If Putin decides to appear – I don’t think most Kremlin watchers are likely – he will undermine his own false narrative that Zelensky and his government are illegal.
However, if he decides to stay home, Putin gives Zelensky the opportunity to point out once again that Russia is not serious about peace.
This message is aimed straight at Trump. Kiev and its European allies have long said they do not believe Putin is seriously interested in negotiating peace.
Trump had previously repeatedly expressed his opposition, but after speaking to Zelensky on the sidelines of Pope Francis’ funeral last month, he began questioning whether Putin wanted peace. The sight of Zelensky sitting across the table from an empty chair would reinforce this point.
This is also the main reason Zelensky proposed a personal meeting with President Putin, who ordered his assassination, according to the Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies.
The two are so far apart it is unclear what the lecture is about.
Zelensky said Tuesday that anything other than an unconditional ceasefire agreement would be a failure.
Meanwhile, Putin has not ruled out Russia as “there could be some new ceasefire, a new ceasefire during these talks,” but the talks aim to eliminate the “root cause” of the conflict.
The “root causes” he cites include years of Russian grievances, including the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state (formerly part of the Soviet Union) and the expansion of NATO to the east since the end of the Cold War.
Neither can be negotiated for Ukraine or its allies.
What happened when Ukraine and Russia last talked?
The last known in-person meeting between Kiev and Moscow took place in Türkiye and Belarus in the spring of 2022. This reveals that within days Putin’s initial plan to take over the entire Ukraine and set up a new puppet government in Kiev was devastatingly wrong.
This led Russia to scramble and attempted to achieve its goals through negotiations.
The War Institute, a US-based conflict monitor, said the agreement proposed by Moscow would urge Ukraine to abandon its sovereignty and would render Ukraine completely helpless in the face of future attacks.
As Ukrainian forces began to free parts of northern Ukraine, consultations began to collapse after finding clear evidence of genocide and other atrocities.
In particular, Russian abuse discovered in one town, Bucha, just north of Kiev, terrorized the world and strengthened the resolve of the Ukrainian people.
Shortly after Zelensky challenged Russian leaders to a trip to Türkiye, the Kremlin began laying the foundation for the possibility that Putin would not be present.
“This is pure sight, a play, especially in such a difficult situation, because high-level meetings are absolutely not organized like this,” Konstantin Kosachev, vice-president of the Russian Federation Council, told Russia 24 on Monday.
He said negotiators will be present “at an expert level.” Kremlin aides and former Russian US ambassador said the Russian delegation will be determined by the topic being discussed.
The comments on “number of technical issues” could indicate that Moscow intends to continue his strategy of thwarting all the details and saying no, without saying “no.”
The stakes are high this time as both Trump and Ukraine’s European allies said they would impose more sanctions on Moscow if they don’t agree to a ceasefire.
Not much. The Turkish government said earlier this week that it is ready to provide all sorts of support to achieve peace in Ukraine, including mediation and hosting negotiations.
Turkey has in the past served as a bridge between Moscow and Kiev. Most notably, the rare diplomatic success in brutal conflicts when it brokered the Black Sea Grain initiative, which ensures the safe passage of Ukrainian ships carrying food exports. Russia withdrew from the agreement in 2023.
As a member of NATO, Turkey is invested in the conflict, but is also seen as more accepting for Russia as Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan has previously praised his “special relationship” with Putin.
Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg and his foreigner Steve Witkov, both are scheduled to be in Istanbul for talks, a senior Trump administration official said on Tuesday that there was a statement confirmed by another source familiar with the plan.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also in Türkiye and attends an informal meeting of the NATO Foreign Ministers.
As of Tuesday, the plan was for US officials to observe Turkey-stimulated consultations between Ukrainians and Russians.
Rubio, Kellogg and Witkov all participated in some of their previous talks in Saudi Arabia. There, he acted as an intermediary and met separately with the Ukrainians a few days later.
This time, the fact that two delegations may meet in person is important.
