Is Mr. Gregory’s victory noteworthy just because it was in Mr. Trump’s district? Or does it fit into an important trend that has been spreading across the country since last year?
Amid the Democratic winning streak, Emily Gregory’s reversal of the former Republican Florida House District 87 seat is notable because it includes President Donald Trump’s mansion and club.
Mr. Gregory defeated Mr. Trump’s rival, John Maples, by just over 2 percentage points in the election, which attracted 33,429 voters. The seat became vacant after former incumbent Mike Caruso resigned after being appointed county court clerk by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But is Gregory’s victory worth noting just because it was Trump’s district? Or does it fit into an important trend that has been spreading across the country since last year?
Here are five things you need to know.
Who is Emily Gregory?
Gregory is a small business owner from Jupiter. She defeated Republican John Maples, who previously held office as a Lake Clark Shores town councilman.
The Democratic Party and its affiliates had hailed her as an example of a new breed of candidates they hope to field in the November midterm elections and subsequent midterm elections.
“This election reaffirms that voters are leading a wave of leaders who demand change, reject Trumpism and the status quo, and actually show up for their communities,” Amanda Littman, co-founder and president of Run for Something, wrote in a prepared statement after the results were announced.
“We are thrilled that Emily won this seat and are proud to work alongside her to make it happen.”
An amazing race, but not an anomaly
Mr. Caruso was elected to the District 87 seat in the November 5, 2024 election by an overwhelming margin of nearly 20 points.
Trump won the district by 11 points that year. Maples had President Trump’s backing. On March 23, the president posted in all caps: “John Maples has my full and complete support!” In a long post. He also likely voted for Maples by mail, after slamming votes that were not cast in person in recent weeks.
While Gregory won a seat in the state House of Representatives, Democrat Brian Nathan was also poised to upset his Republican opponent in the Florida Senate race in the Tampa area.
And in December, Eileen Higgins won the mayoral race for Miami, marking the first time in 30 years that a Democrat had held the top job in a city dominated by Cuban Americans and Latinos.
Special Election Post-Survey: Who did independent voters support?
National polls and election results show a majority of voters who are not registered with a political party are siding with Democrats, reversing the trend from 2024.
In Palm Beach County and the state of Florida as a whole, Trump-era Republican candidates won a sizable share of independent voters in landslide after landslide.
Will the March 24 results indicate that Republicans have lost ground with this crucial voting bloc?
Trump approval rating continues to decline
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on March 24, the president’s approval rating was 36%, with 62% of respondents disapproving.
Gregory said in an interview with the network early on Election Day that the president was focusing on the cost of living issue, not the factors that were important to him in the campaign.
Republicans say not so fast.
After the results were announced, Sam Garrison, chairman of the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee, noted that Republican candidates had won two other House races.
They are Hillary Hawley of House District 51 and Samantha Scott of House District 52. Republicans still rely on supermajorities in the state House and Senate. And the party enjoys the advantage of having around 1.5 million voters on the ballot in November.
Regarding Gregory’s victory, Speaker-elect Garrison said Republicans are focused on the fall vote.
“Today’s loss hurts, but neither he nor we will be deterred,” Garrison wrote in a prepared statement. “Let’s learn from today’s results and see you in November.”
Antonio Fins is the politics and business editor for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. Please contact us at afins@pbpost.com. Please support our journalism. Subscribe now.
