Thanks in part to a surge in support from Latino voters, the Democratic Party won an overwhelming victory in the 2025 national elections. Here’s why 2026 matters:
What a key election night victory means for the Democratic Party going forward
Following wins in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, USA TODAY’s Susan Page breaks down what this means for Democrats going forward.
WASHINGTON – One year after former Vice President Kamala Harris suffered a landslide defeat to President Donald Trump, Democrats roared on November 4, winning gubernatorial, mayoral and local elections nationwide.
These victories were fueled, in part, by the return of Latino voters, especially Latino men, whom the party lost in the 2024 presidential election.
According to CNN exit polls, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia gubernatorial race with the support of 67% of Latino voters, including 55% of Latino men. In Manassas Park, Virginia, a suburb of Washington, D.C., where more than 40% of residents are Hispanic, preliminary results show Mr. Spanberger had a significant lead over Ms. Harris.
Further north, in New Jersey, where the population is about 20% Latino, Democrat Mikie Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent. According to CNN exit polls, she won the support of 68% of Latino voters, with wide margins across all age groups.
The change came as no surprise to activists who have been tracking the political views of Latino voters since Trump took office. Polls over the past nine months show support for Trump and the Republican Party has declined among this key voting bloc.
A survey of 3,000 Latino voters released days before the 2025 election found that nearly two-thirds disapprove of President Trump’s job performance and Republican control of Congress. Among those who voted for Trump, 13% said they would not vote if given the same choice today.
“Latino voters are very pragmatic,” said Melissa Morales, president of Somos Botantes, a leftist Latino voter mobilization organization. “They’re not necessarily going to vote based on party labels. They’re going to vote for people who are actually working on their priorities.”
While it looks like a positive sign for Democrats, Morales and other experts warn that while Democrats will have to compete with Republicans in 2026, they may also have to contend with a bigger enemy: voter apathy.
Is Latino support for the Republican Party really declining?
Since May, Somos Botantes polls have shown that support for Trump and the Republican Party among Hispanics and Latinos has declined as concerns about the U.S. economy continue to grow.
The number of Hispanic and Latino voters who think the U.S. economy is getting worse remained at 64% from May to September this year, while the number who said it was getting worse increased by 3%, according to data from Somos Botantes.
More than a quarter of people surveyed in September said they were having difficulty meeting their monthly expenses.
The group says voters are expressing frustration with an administration that focuses more on immigration enforcement than on affordability.
It turns out that many of them consider Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s approach to stopping people based on ethnicity or spoken language to be racist. But overall, voters expressed more concern about the economy than the administration’s tightening of immigration controls.
Morales said the trend should come as a huge flashing warning sign for Republicans, who ran in 2024 on a promise to curb inflation and improve the cost of living for ordinary Americans.
Morales said that early in Trump’s presidency, Latino voters seemed to be giving the president the benefit of the doubt. They are taking a “wait and see” approach, she said.
“Now, for young Latinos and Latino men, that wait-and-see period is really over,” she said, adding that President Trump’s economic approval rating among young Latinos has jumped 32% since February. He said 71% of those surveyed said the prices of the goods they purchased were rising because of President Trump’s tariff policies.
A Unidos poll of 3,000 Latino voters released on November 3 further highlighted how the economy is beginning to sway voters.
When asked about the issues they are most concerned about, 53% of respondents cited the cost of living and inflation., Meanwhile, 36% pointed to wage and job stability, and 32% highlighted rising housing and electricity costs. Immigration ranked lower than economic issues, with 20% of respondents saying it was an important priority.
Is it too early to tell?
Still, many Latino voters who supported Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign say they are satisfied with the president’s job so far.
Joe Nanez is a 43-year-old self-described Democrat who voted for Trump in 2024 because he said he felt Democrats were lying about former President Joe Biden’s health. Nanez, a native of Red Rock, Arizona, said she believes President Trump is “trying to make a difference.”
“I don’t agree with a lot of what he says, but at least he’s transparent about who he is and what he wants instead of just lying,” Nanez said.
In a phone call the day after the 2025 election, Nanez told USA TODAY he was concerned about Zoran Mamdani’s victory in the New York mayoral race, advocating for freezing rent prices and opening city-owned grocery stores, and expressing concern that Mamdani, an emerging progressive, was too “radical left.”
Daniel Garza, president of the center-right Latino advocacy group Libre, thinks it’s too early to predict how much Latino voters will support Republicans in the crucial 2026 midterm elections because of voters like Nanez.
Garza suggested that some measures in President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax and spending bill, such as tax cuts for wealthy Americans, have not yet been implemented. If voters sense these changes, Republicans could expand their support, he said.
“The big question will be where are we in March, April, May,” Garza said. “That’s going to be huge in determining how effective Trump is for Latinos, because by then his policies will have been implemented.”
Can Democrats bring them back?
Political commentators are interpreting Democratic victories in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City, Pennsylvania, and California on November 4th as a repudiation of President Trump’s policies. But Latino political activists interviewed by USA TODAY warned that voters who turn away from Trump won’t necessarily support Democrats.
Maria Teresa Kumar, CEO of Boto Latino, a nonprofit Latino voting organization, said the story of 2024 is not just about Latino voters shifting from Democrats to Trump. Citing turnout data from Pew Research, he said many Latinos who voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election did not turn out to vote in 2024.
reason? Democrats did not offer them anything to vote for, she said.
“Those who disproportionately voted for Trump were voting on economic issues. They wanted economic relief,” she said, and they didn’t trust Democrats to provide it.
But ICE raids aren’t just hurting Latino voters personally, socially and culturally, she said, they’re also hurting them economically. Polls show economic impact drives the voting bloc the most, with Latino businesses across the country from Miami to Los Angeles seeing a drop in foot traffic due to ICE agents targeting the community.
“What they’re finding is that the people who support local businesses are themselves Latinx, and they’re scared to do the normal things on a daily basis,” Kumar said.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said candidates made a concerted effort this year to highlight food and affordability issues that affect all voters, including Latinos. The party appears ready to double down on its message ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Asked if Democrats were doing enough to win back Latino voters ahead of the Nov. 5 election, Kumar said, “No.” She said research conducted by Voto Latino showed that Democrats continue to fail to inform young Latinos and Latino men online about issues that matter to them.
“Right now, we may have policies to resolve the issue, but what we really need is a communication strategy that is different from the way we have been participating,” Kumar said. “It means taking risks.”
Martin acknowledged that the party is working to garner more support among Latinos and other groups ahead of the next election. But he and other Democratic leaders believe a 2025 victory would be the first step.
“We didn’t lose all our support with these communities in one election cycle, and this has been going on for a while,” Martin said. “One election cycle won’t solve everything. It will take time to rebuild trust.”
Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY’s Nation desk reporter, can be reached at kwaddick@usatoday.com.
