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The clock is ticking toward depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund, which supports benefits for about 70 million Americans.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this month said it expects the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, one of two funds used to pay Social Security benefits, to run out in 2032, a year earlier than expected. CBO, which provides budget analysis to Congress, estimated last year that the trust fund would be empty in 2033.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) said that once the fund is depleted, Social Security recipients could see their monthly retirement and survivor benefits reduced by an average of 28%. The CRFB previously estimated that the typical married couple retiring immediately after bankruptcy would face a benefit reduction of $18,400 per year.
“Social Security has been on a path to bankruptcy for some time, but over the past year politicians have made its financial situation even worse,” the CRFB said in its report.
What changes the outlook for Social Security?
According to the CRFB, new legislation from the tax and spending package President Donald Trump signed last year will reduce revenue to the fund.
“The recently enacted settlement law, the One Big Beautiful Building Act (OBBBA), reduced the income flowing into the Social Security Trust Fund from income taxes on benefits by lowering the income tax rates paid by seniors,” the report said.
Social Security actuary chief Karen Glenn estimated in a letter last year to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, that the bill is expected to cost the program about $168.6 billion over 10 years.
Before that, the bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act, passed in January 2025, had already put a strain on Social Security, CRFB said. The law repealed the Windfall Exemption Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO), two decades-old laws that reduced Social Security benefits for some retirees receiving pension income.
The CRFB estimates that the law increased the Social Security shortfall by an additional $200 billion over 10 years.
“As a result of these laws, combined with various economic, demographic, and technical amendments, and, most importantly, years of neglect by policymakers reluctant to provide Social Security relief, the program’s 75-year deficit has widened,” the report said.
Can the government save Social Security from benefit cuts?
Congress can pass laws to protect Social Security, but it doesn’t. “It is important that Congress focuses on this issue immediately, because delaying it would narrow the viable options to one that relies on tax increases, making it more difficult to resolve,” the American Academy of Actuaries said in a post.
Options for Congress to evaluate include making higher levels of income subject to payroll taxes and raising the normal retirement age for Social Security, the academy said.
“But the most important solution is political will,” CRFB said. “Politicians need to be honest with the public about the challenges facing this system and what it will take to ensure it pays benefits in full…Time is running out.”
Medora Lee is USA TODAY’s money, markets and personal finance reporter. Please contact us at mjlee@usatoday.com. Subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.
