Nothing characterizes the men’s NCAA basketball tournament as anything like an upset, not even the champions cutting the nets on the first Monday night in April.
The 68-team event is designed to give teams from the sport’s smallest schools and conferences a spot and an opportunity to compete against college basketball’s powerhouses on the brightest stage the sport has to offer.
While a good percentage of these games are explosive, others produce results and moments that are only possible in March Madness. Over the next three weeks, a Cinderella story will be created and an unlikely hero will be introduced.
One of the many difficulties facing the millions of people filling out their brackets across the country this week ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is identifying those underdogs and trying to guess exactly which seemingly dominant team will defeat a favored opponent.
To help you with that challenge and provide advice that is sure to not backfire, here are the eight most likely upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
March Madness upset predictions
This exercise did not take into account 7v10 and 8v9 matches. This is because the seed line difference in these matchups is relatively negligible.
1. No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
This is a trendy choice for a reason. Louisville and South Florida are similar stylistically, with both teams employing up-tempo, 3-point-heavy offenses. That would seem to favor the more talented Cardinals, but there are a number of factors that make us bullish on the Bulls. For example, questions remain regarding Louisville’s star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who has been dealing with chronic back pain this season and his playing status in the NCAA Tournament is uncertain. With Brown, the Cardinals are 16-5. Without him, they’re just 7-5. Even if he gets his expected NBA draft lottery pick — and even if he does, it’s unlikely he’ll get 100 percent — Louisville’s dominant group of big men could struggle with 6-10 South Florida forward Isaiah Nelson, the American Conference Player of the Year, who averages 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.
The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the country, riding an 11-game winning streak heading into the tournament. There’s a good chance this trend will continue even as the level of competition increases.
2. No. 11 VCU defeats No. 6 North Carolina.
Another ACC program in North Carolina is dealing with an injury to a superstar freshman, but the Tar Heels’ outlook is more definitive. They will be without standout forward Caleb Wilson, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on a broken thumb. Since Wilson’s injury, coach Hubert Davis’ team is 5-4 after starting 19-4. They have had impressive wins over tournament teams like Louisville and Clemson during that time, but will face a formidable challenge in the Big Dance from a VCU team that has won 16 of their past 17 games — their only loss coming on the road at St. Louis, where the Rams led for much of the night.
3. No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU
BYU still has transformational freshman AJ Divanza healthy and available, but is missing another key piece in standout guard Richie Sanders, who has been out for the season and has scored 18 points per game. The Cougars are 5-5 since Sanders went down, but even before he tore his ACL on Feb. 14, the team had begun to slump to 2-5 after starting 16-1. This is a group that could struggle against Texas, and it falls into the old mold of talented power conference teams that underperform in the regular season before getting hot in March. The Longhorns have a true stud in guard Daylene Swain and a coach in Sean Miller who has made it through Week 1 of the tournament.
Of course, this upset would require Texas to beat North Carolina State in a play-in game. And while Divanza has the talent and drive to single-handedly lead BYU to a strong tournament run, his team is one of the most vulnerable top-six seeds heading into March Madness.
4. No. 13 Hofstra defeats No. 4 Alabama.
The upset pick, which had already garnered attention as soon as the slot was revealed, has become even more trending after Alabama’s No. 2 leading scorer, Aiden Holloway, was arrested on Monday and charged with two felony drug offenses. The university announced that Holloway has been expelled from campus and will not be part of the team pending an investigation and is unlikely to return for Friday’s game. The Crimson Tide is an explosive team offensively, shooting 3s at a higher rate than any other player in Division I, but upsets are more likely on nights when shooting is off, and things are even more precarious without Holloway, the team’s leader in 3s.
Meanwhile, Hofstra has two road wins against power conference opponents Pitt and Syracuse this season and features guard Cruz Davis (20.2 points per game), one of the nation’s top scorers. According to KenPom, the Pride is also third in the nation in two-point field goal percentage, which means they can neutralize Alabama from behind the arc and hope their deep shots don’t connect.
5. No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been a top-20 team all season and were a favorite to be a Final Four contender just a month ago, but Texas Tech’s outlook changed dramatically when All-American forward JT Toppin was lost for the season with a torn ACL. The Red Raiders are 3-4 since Toppin went down, and to make matters worse, injury concerns have been heightened after star guard Christian Anderson suffered what appeared to be a groin injury in the Big 12 Tournament (the program says Anderson will be available for the NCAA Tournament).
It’s a less-than-ideal situation going into the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in the last five years and against a battle-hardened Akron team that boasts one of the nation’s top scorers in guard Tabari Johnson (20.1 points per game). If the Zips, who have won 19 of their last 20 games and rank 32nd in the nation in tempo according to KenPom, can dictate the pace of the game, watch out.
6. No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Tennessee
As with Texas vs. BYU, this is more of a matchup-dependent prediction, and if Miami (Ohio State) continues its magical season with a First Four win, it will have a much tougher battle against a bigger, more talented Tennessee team. However, SMU can cause some problems for Vol. The Mustangs have one of the best backcourts in the nation in Boopy Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards, who combine to average 49.5 points per game and could win a track meet against a Tennessee team that sometimes struggles to score.
7. No. 13 Troy defeats No. 4 Nebraska.
Nebraska is the only program in the power conference to never win in the NCAA Tournament, and with a team that went 26-6 in the regular season, it seems likely that the drought will end this year. But the Cornhuskers could face some problems against a stout Trojans team that stumbled early, going 6-6 in their last 12 games, coming off a road win over San Diego State and a one-point road loss to USC in triple overtime. The Trojans are holding opponents to 31.3% on 3s this season, but that could be a problem for a Nebraska team that makes its living from beyond the arc.
8. Wisconsin High Point No. 12 over No. 5
This game has the least chance of an upset of all the games listed, if only because the Badgers are 15-5 since Jan. 6 and have one of the best guards in the nation in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who combine to average 39.6 points per game. Still, High Point is far from a typical team from a one-bid conference, with a roster reportedly worth more than $4 million. The Panthers are 30-4 and have won their last 14 games, the longest active winning streak in the country. At the very least, this won’t be the first time in recent years that the University of Wisconsin has lost in the first round of the tournament as a No. 5 seed to a mid-major team wearing purple.
