CNN
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For over three years, Russia has used a fleet of bombers to rain hellfires in Ukraine. On June 1st, Kiev responded by chasing those bombers.
The operation called the codename “SpiderWeb” was created in 18 months. Dozens of hidden drones emerged from trucks parked in Russia, racing on airfields thousands of miles from Ukraine, destroying at least 12 bombers.
The operation was a major boost to Ukrainian morale, but much of the country was supported in Moscow’s retaliation. Their fears shattered when Russian President Vladimir Putin told his US Donald Trump on Wednesday that the Kremlin had to “respond” to the attack.
Russia’s first retaliation began Thursday night in the form of large-scale drone and missile strikes across Kiev and across the country. The Russian Ministry of Defense described the strike as a “response” to Kiev’s “terrorist acts.” The attack was punished, but it was not qualitatively different from what Ukraine had become accustomed to war for over three years.
Olha, a 67-year-old Kyiv resident, asked her to be identified by her name alone, told CNN that if the strike on Thursday night was Russian retaliation, Ukraine is facing “many of such retaliation – once a month, more.”
Russia’s previous response to Ukraine’s extraordinary operations has raised questions about Putin’s ability to accurately set the war and retaliation that many of his supporters have sought. And it was the Ukrainians wondering if it was already the brunt of the Russian reaction, or if the worst hadn’t come yet.
Analysts say Putin faces several restrictions when deciding on Russia’s retaliation. One is political. Increased massive, innovative responses to the “Spider Web” mission is similar to acknowledging that Ukraine has dealt a serious blow to Russia.
At a meeting with the government minister on Wednesday, Putin received a lengthy briefing on the recent collapse of the bridges in Kursk and Briansk, which were denounced by Russia in Ukraine. However, aside from the recent reference by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Kiev’s “detective provocation,” the “Spiderweb” operation was not mentioned.
Russian national media reports of Putin’s call with Trump on Wednesday made little about the Russian president’s pledge to “respond” to the Ukraine attack. Instead, the report focused on the outcome of recent peace negotiations in Istanbul.
Stepanenko said this is part of the intentional strategy. “Putin is trying to erase this and hide this mistake again,” she told CNN. She said the famous response would “contradict the Kremlin’s strategic objectives.
Putin also faces material constraints. Almost a day strike in Ukraine, Russia, once involved dozens of drones, but now uses more than 400. On May 31, Russia launched 472 drones in Ukraine, a day before the Ukraine “Spider Web” operation.
“The Russian response is constrained by the amount of force they are constantly using,” said William Alberque, a former NATO weapons manager at the Stimson Center think tank.
“How do you know if Russia is actually retaliating? What would be more brutal than they destroy apartments or attack shopping malls? What does escalation look like?”
The Russian community of telegram bloggers during the war had a lack of ideas. Several prominent channels said Kiev’s strike against Moscow’s nuclear bombers justified a nuclear strike against Ukraine. Others have been used only once against Ukraine so far, seeking strikes using the Oleshnik ballistic missile announced by Putin last year.
Putin often praises his new missile, but it has limited uses, said Mark Galeotti, a leading Russian analyst.
“Oreshnik really deals with certain types of targets. It’s not that accurate… it’s not a bunker buster,” he told CNN. This means that missiles will struggle to extract the main manufacturing and decision-making hubs that have moved deep underground. “If you’re going to unfold it… you want it to have a target worthy of the name.”
One target could be SBU, a Ukrainian security service.
“But that’s not something you can do right away,” he warned. “In some respects, Putin has already wiped out most of the escalation rungs at his freedom, meaning he has no clear punishment option.”
Amid signs that Moscow’s “retaliation” could be underway, the Russian Defense Ministry said it attacked the Ukrainian airfield in the West Livne region on Sunday night, a week after the Ukrainian attack on the Russian airfield.
The ministry said the attack was “one of retaliatory strikes” against Kiev’s “terrorist attacks” on Russian airfields, suggesting that more might come. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said the attack on the airfield was “one of the biggest things Russia has done.” The air defense “worked very well,” but he said “it’s impossible to shoot everything down.”
Putin may be constrained by his ability to deal with Russia’s own grandiose operations, but this may not be a problem on the battlefield, Galeotti said.
“From a political standpoint… it is the Ukrainians who demonstrate that they are agile, imaginative, effective people, and the Russians are just brave people who keep grinding,” he said. “But from a military perspective, that’s fine in a way.”
Ukraine may have an initiative in terms of headlines and sights, but Russia still has an initiative on the battlefield. The Russian army has opened a new front in the North Smie region of Ukraine, currently only 12 miles from major cities. And on Sunday, Moscow claimed that its troops had first advanced into Dnipropetrovsk’s central Ukrainian region after months of conflict.
The problem is, “Putin is willing to accept the damage that took place on the home front, as his slow exhaustion moves forward,” Galeotti said.
Alberque of Stimson Center said there is much to do with whether Ukraine is weaving in more “SpiderWebs” or whether drone attacks are one-off.
“The fact that this operation was half the year of the plan — how many other operations are there now?” he asked.
Two days after the drone attack, the Ukrainian SBU announced another operation. This is the third attempt to blow up the bridge connecting Russia with the occupied Crimea. The Kerch Strait bridge was not so damaged, but the attacks reinforced the SBU’s commitment to impress Moscow that there is a cost to continue the war.
If such “humiliation” manipulation continues, Putin is under great pressure to bring about different kinds of responses, not just in degrees, Alberke said.
“Putin is a strong political creature,” he added. “The (Kremlin) looks for other ways to fight back, to show the Russian people that Putin is a great wartime president who is causing horrific damage to his enemies, rather than a victim of these epic Ukrainian attacks.”
