According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle, the group that organizes the famous winter spectacle and cares for the featured animals, winter will last for six more weeks. The group announced that Punxsutawney Phil had seen his own shadow after being removed from his den, with his appearance relayed around the world as a crowd watched. This famous rodent is said to have communicated its prophecies by “groundhoges.”
Punxsutawney Phil has been making predictions since the late 1800s, but his predictions are a little off. How well could he predict the winter weather?According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it won’t be that hot.
Phil’s record is as follows:
NOAA scores Punxsutawney Phil predictions
According to Groundhog Club archives, Punxsutawney Phil has now seen his shadow 109 times, or 84%, of the 130 times he has predicted the weather. From 1903 to 1933, he observed his shadow every year, with 32 being his longest.
In his more than 135 years of experience, his overall accuracy rating is only 35%, according to NOAA.
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Animals that can predict the weather better than Punxsutawney Phil
When it comes to predicting the weather, Punxsutawney Phil seems to have some rivals. These vaguely predictive animals in the United States have much higher prediction rates, according to data from NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information.
NOAA predicts US outlook will warm
December, January, and February are the three coldest months of the year in the United States, so the appearance of groundhogs usually signals the end of winter.
According to NOAA’s February, March, and April 2026 Temperature Outlook, temperatures are expected to be above average across much of the United States, especially in the South, East, and Southwest.
Active storm patterns and below-average temperatures are also expected in the northern tier, which includes the Northern Plains, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountains.
Where is Groundhog Day celebrated?
Every February 2nd, people gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to participate in a celebration centered around Punxsutawney Phil’s prophecy.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the holiday stems from centuries of pagan and Christian tradition. It is also known as St. Brigid’s Day.
According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, German settlers brought the tradition to America. But before they set off on their journey to America, they checked to see if the hedgehog, and not the groundhog, was seeing their shadow.
Note: Portions of this story were previously published on January 31, 2025. This story has been updated to add new information.
Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, National Center for Environmental Information, USA TODAY study
