President Trump won today, but challenges loom for jobs and midterm elections.

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President Donald Trump’s triumphant assessment of his accomplishments in his year-end White House address to the nation was not a nod to the current issues around him.

“Over the past 11 months, we have brought about more positive change in Washington than any administration in American history,” he declared in a 19-minute rapid-fire speech touting his record on everything from tariffs to immigration. “There’s never been anything like this before, and I think most people would agree.”

What he didn’t say: The unemployment rate is slowly rising. His approval rating is declining. Republican lawmakers are increasingly pushing back. His health is attracting attention. Peace deals in Ukraine and Gaza have proven more difficult to achieve than he expected.

And the midterm exam next November? Don’t ask.

Happy New Year, Mr. President.

There is no disputing that the first year of President Trump’s second term has been breathtaking in scope, approving to some Americans and disappointing to others.

He cut 200,000 federal jobs, imposed the highest tariffs since the 1930s, reordered American foreign policy priorities, signed more than 200 executive orders, pardoned the January 6 riot, and forced elite universities, top law firms and television broadcasters to do his will.

He exercised unprecedented powers, less constrained by convention than in his first term. His stamp on the government, from the huge ballrooms under construction to the gold leaf everywhere, won’t be fading anytime soon.

But even Donald J. Trump can’t defy the calendar.

lame duck and ticking clock

He is already in a lame duck state, barred by the constitution from running for a third term. His grip on the Republican Party is astonishing, but the first cracks are beginning to show. Hours before his speech, four House Republicans broke with Republican leadership and forced a vote on extending the Affordable Care Act’s premium subsidies.

Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled Senate had just approved a defense policy bill that reaffirmed Congress’s role in overseeing the U.S. attack on Venezuelan shipping and the proposed withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe.

Trump is about to encounter a new phase of his presidency, and a ticking clock.

He won’t be on the ballot again, but other Republicans will be. In last month’s off-year elections, Democrats easily won gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, despite signs that Trump-leaning voters, including Hispanics and young people, are unlikely to stick with the Republican Party in 2024.

Moreover, the most reliable predictor of which party will win in the midterm elections is the incumbent president’s approval rating. At this point in his first term, Trump’s rating in the Gallup poll was a dismal 36%. Republicans would lose 40 seats and the House majority.

Gallup now once again rates President Trump at 36%.

An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Wednesday found President Trump’s approval rating for the economy, traditionally a source of strength, has fallen to an all-time low of 36%. Almost half of those surveyed said they were most concerned about prices, the “affordability” crisis that President Trump dismissed as a Democratic hoax.

In his speech, President Trump repeatedly blamed President Joe Biden for the country’s ills, especially the economy. “Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess and I’m fixing it,” he began. “I’m bringing down these high prices very quickly.”

In fact, while the cost of some items has come down, inflation continues at 3%. Many families report that their finances are strained due to rising costs for housing, food, and health care. “It’s not the Republicans’ fault. It’s the Democrats’ fault,” he said, despite the Republican-controlled Congress’ refusal to expand Obamacare premiums.

There was no light touch, no humor, no humanizing anecdotes, no important news in this speech. Trump flooded with complaints, shattered statistics and defended his record.

A year of important court decisions and historic celebrations

Early next year, President Trump is scheduled to deliver his annual State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress and outline his legislative priorities. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on several important issues in the near future, including the constitutionality of his tariffs and his efforts to end birthright citizenship.

By some coincidence, he will be the president presiding over the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4th. In two weeks, I’ll have the chance to watch the FIFA World Cup finals in New Jersey. And he expects to hear his name when the Nobel Peace Prize is announced in October.

But by the end of next year, the White House succession race will be in full swing, but he doesn’t seem ready to consider relinquishing the job just yet.

“It’s not over yet, but are we making progress?” President Trump said. “No one can believe what’s going on.”

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