Smoke rises over US and Israeli attack on Iran
Smoke is seen rising over the Iranian capital Tehran following attacks by the US and Israel.
- The United States has launched a major offensive against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, with the stated goal of ending Iran’s nuclear program and overthrowing its regime.
- According to recent polls, most Americans are still not convinced that attacking Iran is in the country’s best interest.
- In response to the US attack, Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks on Israeli and US bases across the region.
WASHINGTON – The potential payoff for a major U.S. attack on Iran would be historic, ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions and even toppling the regime that is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
But the risks are also great.
“The lives of our brave American heroes may be lost, and we may suffer casualties, as is often the case in war,” President Donald Trump said in a video posted to social media on February 27, wearing a white hat with the word “USA” written on it. “But what we’re doing is not just for now, we’re doing it for the future, and that’s a noble mission.”
The Islamic fundamentalist government has few defenders in the West, but critics have warned that the military offensive, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, could spark a wider regional war, drawing the United States into a long and costly conflict.
In the nearly half-century since the Islamic Republic seized power, it has defied successive U.S. presidents.
As the explosion shakes Tehran and Iran retaliates with missile attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases in the region, there are three fundamental questions the president will face in the coming weeks and months. And maybe even longer.
Are there Americans on board?
Most Americans are not convinced, at least not yet, that a U.S. attack on Iran makes sense.
A University of Maryland poll conducted in February found that only one in five people (21%) supported the United States launching an attack on Iran. Half (49%) opposed it. Almost a third (30%) said they did not know.
Republicans were more supportive than Democrats and independents, but support was far from a majority among the president’s partisans, with 40% supporting the idea. A similar number of Republicans, 35%, were unsure.
The survey of 1,004 adults, conducted Feb. 5-9, has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
President Trump’s suggestions in recent months that he was considering action against Iran have divided his political base. Many Republicans supported the president, but some “America First” advocates say it risks inviting “forever wars” of the kind the president vowed to avoid during his political career.
“This is the Trump I supported… who has declared no more foreign wars,” former Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Trump ally turned critic, posted on social media before the attack began. “Now, for some reason, Trump has joined the neocons.”
Critics say Trump has not clearly stated his goals and has not consistently explained to the American public why the attacks are in America’s strategic interests. It’s something policymakers have generally considered important since the Vietnam War, which polarized the country.
Before the First and Second Gulf Wars, President George H.W. Bush and then President George W. Bush embarked on a national public relations campaign to raise awareness of these conflicts.
Americans are currently not at all sure whose interests will be best advanced by a war with Iran.
A University of Maryland poll found that one-third (33%) said they were “don’t know,” an order of magnitude more than the 31% who said they benefited the United States. Another third was divided between the interests of Israel, the Iranian people, and Arab countries.
How will Iran and Iranians react?
President Trump ordered bombings in six other locations during his second term, including Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, and Venezuela.
But Iran’s size and military power dwarf those countries. It has an estimated active force of more than 600,000 soldiers, thousands of short- and medium-range missiles, and a formidable arsenal of unmanned aircraft.
When the United States bombed nuclear facilities in June, the U.S. military response was relatively restrained, but this attack was more widespread and retaliation quickly escalated.
Within hours, Iran launched missile attacks against Israel and US military bases in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
In a video address, President Trump called on Iranians to seize the opportunity to overthrow their government. There have been widespread protests in Iran’s streets this year, sparking a brutal government crackdown that has reportedly left thousands of people dead.
“When we’re done, take over your government. It’ll be yours,” Trump declared. “This is probably the only chance for generations.”
What does history say?
The lessons of history are sobering.
Since the U.S.-backed overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979, the Islamic Republic has suffered setbacks from a series of U.S. presidents.
President Jimmy Carter was unable to win the release of the 52 hostages held at the U.S. Embassy, a failure that contributed to his defeat in his second term in 1980. The biggest policy scandal during President Ronald Reagan’s tenure was the Iran-Contra affair, which involved covert operations against Iran.
President Barack Obama attempted sanctions diplomacy to win a multilateral agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, but the deal with President Trump was deemed so desirable that it was abandoned during his first term. Hours before the new attack, he said he was “not satisfied” with the lack of progress in his diplomatic efforts.
“Sometimes the use of force is necessary,” he said at the time.
Will Trump’s wars be different?
Susan Page is USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief. She has covered 12 presidential campaigns and seven White House administrations, and has interviewed the past 10 presidents..
