Meteorologists are busy preparing forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which begins on June 1st.
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Like a ship sailing on a distant horizon, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is steadily approaching.
With just over three months left, meteorologists are busy preparing forecasts for the upcoming season starting June 1st. And most of the attention is focused on what’s happening with the El Niño/La Niña cycle in the tropical Pacific.
“The big questions heading into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are whether El Niño will occur and, if so, how strong it will be,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said in an email to USA TODAY.
Simply put, if El Niño occurs as expected, the Atlantic season could be less active than usual. “Overall, we expect to see some reduction in activity this year, but we don’t yet know by how much,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, said in an email to USA TODAY.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an average Atlantic hurricane season from 1991 to 2020 had about 14 named storms, seven of which were hurricanes. Of these seven hurricanes, three were major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
How will the impending El Niño affect the Atlantic hurricane season?
El Niño, the natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, can have a major impact on the intensity of the Atlantic hurricane season.
“El Niño typically increases updrafts over the tropical Pacific, which causes stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic,” Hazelton said. “This typically reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf Coasts.”
But we also saw El Niño years where the Atlantic Ocean was very warm, which offset some of the El Niño effects, he said. 2023 was a good example, he added.
But El Niño doesn’t guarantee a quiet season, and “El Niño seasons can be affected by major hurricanes. For example, the last three Category 5 hurricanes to hit the United States (Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018) all occurred during hurricane season when the ocean was transitioning to weak El Niño conditions,” Hazelton said.
How likely is El Niño to occur?
NOAA’s latest odds are quite aggressive in terms of a rapid exit from La Niña, with a 60% chance of reaching neutrality by the February-to-April average (possibly in the next few weeks), Klotzbach said.
Klotzbach added that surface heat content anomalies have actually increased in the eastern/central tropical Pacific Ocean in recent weeks. “This often heralds the transition from La Niña conditions to neutral conditions (possibly El Niño conditions).”
Looking at the heart of the hurricane season, NOAA’s latest forecast puts the probability of an El Niño occurring between August and October at 59%.
What other factors affect hurricane season?
El Niño/La Niña conditions are an important factor in hurricane season, but they are not the only one. Hazelton said water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the so-called “key development areas” of the Caribbean and eastern Antilles, will be important.
“Right now, we’re close to average overall. If the region warms significantly, the Atlantic Ocean may ‘fight back’ against the ongoing El Niño, but if not, the Pacific Ocean may take the lead this season,” Klotzbach said.
Klotzbach also pointed out that “the tropical Atlantic Ocean is certainly (thankfully!) cooler than it has been in the past few years at the moment.”
Hazelton added that Africa is also worth looking at. As seen in 2015 and 2018-2019, a stronger African monsoon could offset some of the effects of El Niño, potentially creating hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Could El Niño impact the eastern or central Pacific hurricane season?
Yes, El Niño tends to make the Pacific season more active, but the specifics of where the warmest water occurs (the eastern and central Pacific) can determine which basins experience the highest above normal conditions, Hazelton said.
Eastern Pacific hurricanes tend to remain offshore and have little impact on the United States, except that their remnants may flood the Southwest. Central Pacific hurricanes can impact Hawaii.
It’s still too early for hurricane forecasts
“It’s really early for a seasonal hurricane forecast,” Klotzbach told USA TODAY. “One of the reasons we don’t issue forecasts for the February-March period is because there can be big changes in the atmosphere and ocean systems in late winter and early spring,” he said.
Klotzbach’s team at Colorado State University is scheduled to release its first predictions for the season on April 9th. Other forecasts are expected to follow, including NOAA’s release in late May.
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
