Top college freshman basketball players to watch ahead of March Madness
As March Madness approaches, an outstanding freshman class is already shaping the picture for the tournament. Meet four rising stars ready to make an impact on the national stage.
Based on recent trends in the NCAA Tournament, only a handful of teams could be true national championship contenders once March Madness officially begins.
Seven of the past eight national champions have been No. 1 seeds, with the only exception being Connecticut, which will be a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were also a little more talented than Seed, especially as they won back-to-back national championships the following season.
Additionally, 18 of the past 25 national champions since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds. The last No. 4 seed or higher to win a national championship was also UW in 2014, making the Huskies the only top-seeded team to win the title since 2000 to hold both spots.
Since 2000, three No. 3 seeds have won national titles, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
Suffice it to say, if a team has a dominant regular season, that’s a good predictor of national championship odds. Let’s take a look at the nine teams that could win the National Championship in 2026 based on seeding trends.
Duke, the No. 1 overall seed according to USA TODAY Sports’ bracket projections, is on the wagon this season. Led by true freshman Cameron Boozer, one of the nation’s top Most Valuable Player candidates, the Blue Devils finished the regular season 29-2 with impressive wins over projected No. 1 seeds in Michigan and Florida. No. 2 seed Michigan State. 4 seeds Kansas and Virginia. and 6-seeded North Carolina (twice).
Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and is currently the likely front-runner for the national championship.
Arizona State is key to earning the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, along with Duke, Michigan and Florida State. All the Wildcats have accomplished this season is dominate one of the best conferences in college basketball.
Arizona finished the season with a 29-2 record, including 16-2 in Big 12 play. The Wildcats lost back-to-back games to Kansas and Texas Tech in February, but won every other game, including wins over Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UW, and Florida.
According to KenPom, Arizona ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency. It also ranks 15th in strength of schedule.
Michigan State, another lock for the No. 1 seed, also dominated the regular season. The Wolverines suffered one loss in a Big Ten game at Wisconsin earlier in the season before taking the lead in the conference, only to lose again against Duke at a neutral site in February.
Michigan State has the tools to win a national title, forming a Big 3 along with Duke and Arizona State as the favorites for the national title, with Florida State likely to be close behind.
Defending national champion Florida was 9-5 this season after losing its SEC opener to Missouri. This was followed by Duke, Arizona and TCU, which lost to non-conference teams. But then something clicked for the Gators, who won 16 of their final 17 games to end the regular season and once again looked like one of the top national title contenders.
Led by the trio of returnees from last season’s national championship team in Thomas Ho, Alex Condon and Ruben Chiniel, Florida State boasts one of the strongest frontcourts in college basketball. The Gators are the current favorites to earn the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and their breakthrough to end the regular season in particular could easily put them in contention for the national title.
According to KenPom, Florida ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, which coincidentally only ranks behind the previous three teams on this list.
UConn has proven itself in the past by winning national championships from various NCAA Tournament seedings. However, the Huskies are gearing up to be a No. 2 seed in 2026 and are near the top of the national title contenders.
UW may have lost its chance at the No. 1 seed with a blowout loss to Marquette to end the regular season, but coach Dan Hurley’s team still has a chance to win the school’s third title in four seasons. The Huskies don’t have a reliable scorer, but they do have one of the best starting lineups in college basketball, with a trio of solo ball veterans Taris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban, plus NBA lottery pick Braylon Mullins and Georgia transfer Silas Demarie Jr.
UW was an eighth seed last season, but still nearly beat eventual national champion Florida in the second round of March Madness.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has one of the better teams in recent years, led by standout guard Jeremy Fiers Jr., who leads the Big Ten in assists per game (9.1) this season.
The Spartans last won a national title in 2000, but were runner-up in 2009. They have also reached the Final Four three times since 2010. USA TODAY Sports projects Michigan State to be the No. 2 seed.
Houston returns three star players from last season’s runner-up team and replaces the players it lost with two five-star true freshmen, including Kingston Flemings, who is projected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
Flemings raised the offensive ceiling for the Cougars this season, averaging 16.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. They also have a typically strong defense that ranks No. 6 nationally according to KenPom.
Coach Kelvin Sampson, one of the best coaches to never win a national title, has led Houston by a narrow margin in recent years. The Cougars will probably overcome their crisis as a No. 2 seed in 2026, according to USA TODAY Sports.
Three No. 3 seeds have won national championships since 2003, and Gonzaga is projected to be a No. 3 seed in 2026, according to USA TODAY Sports. The Bulldogs have one of the best frontcourts in college basketball in Graham Icke and Braden Huff, and if they can play strong from the backcourt and hit 3-pointers, it will be a tough battle.
Gonzaga has one of the best coaches in the sport in Mark Few and was a runner-up at the national championship in 2017 and 2021. They also have a run-ready defense that ranks No. 9 according to KenPom.
Never leave the Jayhawks and coach Bill Self out of the picture during March Madness. Especially since their roster includes one of the best scorers in college basketball.
True freshman Darrin Peterson has been healthy so far, playing at least 29 minutes in all five of Kansas’ final regular season games. His performance significantly increases Kansas’ ceiling in the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas also has a strong defense led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Florrie Vidunga. Kansas, led by fellow veteran guards Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., has a team that could win a national championship if Peterson hits his stride.
USA TODAY Sports projects Kansas as a No. 4 seed, and there has been one No. 4 seed to win a national title since 2000 (UConn in 2023).
