With the failure of the seasonal upwelling system in the Bay of Panama, scientists wonder what will happen next.
The stable ocean pattern failed for the first time
Scientists have discovered something dramatically unusual in the ocean, which may be a warning sign of what’s going forward.
Scientists have discovered something dramatically unusual in the ocean, which may be a warning sign of what’s going forward.
The warm air dances in the cold air. Cold water chases after warm water. It’s all part of the predictable and stable dance of flows and climate patterns that occur naturally across the globe. Until it isn’t.
For the first time since records began 40 years ago, the cold, nutritious waters of Panama Bay have not been able to emerge this year. Scientists don’t know if it’s fluke or a new normal.
Specifically, the seasonal upwelling system of Panama Bay has consistently provided cool, nutrient-rich waters through north trade winds for over 40 years from January to April. But this is not this year.
“We know if this is a real example of a climate change point — if it continues to gush out in future years,” said Tim Renton of the University of Exeter in the UK.
The findings were reported last week in the National Academy of Sciences’ peer-reviewed journal Proceedings.
What is a “trend point”?
Scientists have long feared that if severe climate change continues for humans, some of the key features of the Earth’s climate could be dramatically cancelled. This is the premise behind the science fiction film “Tomorrow’s Day.” This is loosely based on real concern that large-scale ocean currents could collapse relatively rapidly in the warming world.
Researchers have documented similar turning points in climate change. Panama Bay is not one of those tipping points, but it raises concerns about the reefs that are part of the conversation.
“Whether it’s a turning point or not, another ongoing tipping point: the reef loss associated with extreme warmth in tropical sea surface temperatures is bad news as the cooling needed this year hasn’t happened,” Renton said.
“This change could also cause a turning point in open ocean ecosystems and associated fisheries as major production will be much lower this year.”
What is upwelling?
Northern trade winds create upwelling events in the seawaters of Panama Bay, according to the Smithsonian Institute, which led the research during the dry season of Central America (typically between December and April).
Upwelling is a process that allows cold, nutrient-rich water to rise from the depths of the ocean to the surface. This dynamic helps support highly productive fishing and protects coral reefs from heat stress. Thanks to this movement of water, the oceans along Panama’s Pacific beaches remain cool during the “summer” holiday season.
However, researchers recently documented that this important oceanographic process did not occur for the first time in 2025. As a result, the typical drop in temperature and surge in productivity during this period decreased.
Further research is needed
What causes this suppression of upwelling? “The main suspect is wind reduction,” said Aaron O’Dare, the project’s Smithsonian’s lead scientist. “Rictions usually occur every year when trade winds blow the isthmus. It makes sense because it didn’t happen as often as it was in the normal years.”
“The more important question is why the wind wasn’t blowing. We don’t know why we’re deciphering this now or if it takes a little longer,” he told USA Today.
It is not clear whether human-induced climate change was involved in suppressing upwelling this year.
Anyway, the study reveals that climate disruptions can quickly change the basic marine processes that have maintained coastal fishing communities for thousands of years, according to the Smithsonian facility. Nevertheless, further research is needed to determine more accurate causes and potential consequences for the fisheries.
What’s next?
According to O’Dea, “We monitor it daily through a variety of means, including satellites and direct measurements. We will also be sampling the groundwater area early next year to see if the same thing happens.”
“To better understand what happened and why it happened and to predict whether it would happen again, we gathered a team of collaborators from the Smithsonian and Max Planck Institute to analyze atmospheric and ocean data more closely and apply a high-resolution modeling approach for future predictions.”
“One of my hopes for this paper was that it directed this event and interest in such an event in tropical waters that are always assumed to be reliable, but in fact it may not be that reliable. We now have that interest and more challenging work sift through the data and get a sense of the details,” O’Dea told USA Today.
