According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the spring temperature outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the United States.
AccuWeather’s 2026 Severe Weather Season Forecast
Find out which areas of the U.S. are most at risk for severe weather and tornadoes this spring.
Spring officially arrived on Friday, March 20, and new forecasts say it’s shaping up to be a warm few months for most Americans.
The news comes as much of the western United States is already enduring the preview of a record-breaking summer of massive heat domes that sent tens of millions of people rushing to their air conditioners and swimming pools.
Meanwhile, NOAA’s Spring Outlook for April to June released on March 20 predicts that drought conditions will worsen or become more severe in many areas of the Western and South Central Plains.
What’s the forecast for spring in America?
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the temperature outlook for April, May, and June 2026 is for most of the continental United States to have above-average seasonal temperatures, except for the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast.
“The highest probability (more than 60%) of above-normal temperatures will be in the central Great Basin and parts of the Rocky Mountains to parts of the southwest,” the Chinese Communist Party said in an online forecast.
Regarding precipitation, the April-May-June 2026 outlook shows below-normal seasonal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, much of the Western West and Rocky Mountains, and areas of the high plains and central Great Plains.
Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is expected in areas including much of western Alaska and parts of the eastern Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and southeastern regions, CPC said.
Which region in the country will be the hottest this spring?
John Gottschalk, NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s director of operational forecasting, said in an email to USA TODAY that the greatest chance of above-normal temperatures, including potential heatwave episodes, is in the Interior West, south-central Rockies, Southwest, and south-central Plains.
What about spring floods?
NOAA said in a statement that the overall flood risk for most of the continental United States for spring 2026 is currently assessed as normal or below normal. This risk determination was primarily based on a dry, warm winter that dried soils across much of the eastern United States, reducing the threat of rainfall-induced flooding. In addition, much below normal snowfall in most areas of the country will reduce the risk of flooding from snowmelt.
However, the northern Red River and lower Ohio Valley typically flood annually. Therefore, flooding is expected in these watersheds again this year, NOAA said.
“While typical spring flooding is expected in parts of the greater Mississippi River Basin this year, the risk of widespread major flooding is low,” NOAA National Water Center Director Ed Clark said in a statement. “However, it is important to remember that heavy rain can cause major flooding.”
Typical spring pattern in the Midwest and Northeast with heat dome expansion in the West
For now, AccuWeather says, the Midwest and Northeast will see multiple alternations of cold and warm air over the next few weeks, a typical spring pattern.
The next temperature rebound has already begun in parts of the Midwest and will spread to parts of the Northeast over the weekend as the edge of the Southwest’s giant record-breaking heat dome expands.
With temperatures in the 90s and above 100 degrees in some cities, typical levels of late spring and early summer, the Western Heat Dome has already broken the record for the hottest March day in U.S. history, AccuWeather said.
Will this be the end of winter weather and an arctic explosion?
“No, not completely. In fact, areas near the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast are expected to experience below-normal temperatures by the middle of next week, with short periods of low temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s in some areas, lower wind chills, and the potential for snow,” Gottschalk said.
“But we certainly don’t have the bitter Arctic air that we had earlier this year.”
“That being said, as we look beyond next week, temperatures will be above normal in most parts of the country, and by that point, by mid-April, we are unlikely to see a period of large-scale, widespread-impact cold air,” Gottschalk said.
What is a heat dome?
Heat domes, like the one currently burning up the West, are vast areas of high pressure that promote hot, dry conditions for days to weeks at a time.
“Heat domes are a lot like balloons,” explains AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert. “It expands and contracts as the day goes on, so it gets very warm when you’re inside it.”
Heat domes can also prevent clouds from forming, allowing abundant sunlight to increase temperatures and potentially reach record levels.
As temperatures rise, the demand for cooling will also increase, potentially increasing the strain on power grids across the region. AccuWeather said in an online report that extended periods of extreme heat and sunshine could lead to further or worsening drought conditions.
AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines told USA TODAY in an email: “One of the concerns we have about this early season heat wave across Southern California is that the ground cover is turning brown much faster than normal. If we get a Santa Ana event sometime in April or May, that could cause trouble and increase the fire risk.”
What are the dangers associated with heat domes?
As with other heat waves, heat stroke, heat exhaustion and heat cramps are common risks, Cains said. “Drink lots of fluids, ideally water, and wear light-colored, lightweight clothing. Wear a hat with a visor or preferably a wide-brimmed hat to keep the sun off your head.”
“If possible, do any outdoor work or strenuous activity during the day or early evening, when it’s not as hot and the sun isn’t as strong. Two of the best ways to beat the heat are air conditioning and a pool.”
Is this a good example of a heat dome?
This is definitely an example of a heat dome. Heat domes are associated with stagnant air masses and record heat, Cains said.
“The records that are being broken in this heat dome are not being broken one degree at a time, they are being erased by several degrees, and in some cases by many degrees. This heat is happening early in the season, so most people’s bodies have not yet adapted to the heat,” he added.
How long will this heat dome last?
Cains said the heat dome will begin to break down early the week of March 23rd. However, temperatures are likely to remain above historical averages.
Will we see more “heat domes” this spring?
“Yes, that’s likely. Short-term climate prediction numerical models not only broadly support above-normal temperatures as predicted, but there is strong agreement across many models on this, with higher than normal agreement,” Gottschalk told USA TODAY.
