Which No. 1 seed is most likely to fall early in March Madness?
Duke, Arizona, Michigan, or Florida: Which top seed could be the first to be eliminated in the NCAA Tournament?
Duke men’s basketball failed to win the men’s NCAA tournament last season under Cooper Flagg, and the Blue Devils lost to Houston in the Final Four.
With Cameron Boozer leading the way in Durham, will the 2026 NCAA Tournament be the year the Blue Devils are the last team standing to make it all the way to the national championship game as “One Shining Moment” plays in the background as they cut through the nets?
Oddsmakers say yes to that question, as the Blue Devils still have the best odds to win it all out of all 68 teams in March Madness. The first step toward the anticipated national championship will be when Duke takes on No. 16 Siena in Greenville on Thursday, March 19 at 2:50 p.m. ET.
But what about the teams that are close to John Scheyer’s program in the betting world? Based on the Las Vegas odds, we think they could be another “all-choke” Final Four in Indianapolis. All four No. 1 seeds make up the best odds for the top four, as Michigan is Duke’s closest “contender” at BetMGM at +350 odds.
Here’s the latest on the men’s NCAA Tournament betting scene.
March Madness 2026 Power Rankings by NCAA Championship Odds
Duke remains the favorite to win the national championship at +300 odds at BetMGM. If the Blue Devils can find the back of the net on April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium, it will be the program’s sixth national title and it will tie for third place nationally behind the University of Florida and UW.
Current odds as of Tuesday, March 17th at 8am ET provided by BetMGM
long shot cinderella
- Kennesaw State (+500,000)
- Prairie View A&M (+500,000)
- Howard (+500,000)
- Idaho (+500,000)
- Lehi (+500,000)
- Pen (+200,000)
- California Baptist (+200,000)
- Hawaii (+200,000)
- McNeese (+200,000)
- Siena (+200,000)
- Wright State (+200,000)
- Furman (+200,000)
- Troy (+200,000)
- North Dakota (+200,000)
- Queens (+200,000)
- Ryu (+200,000)
- Tennessee (+200,000)
- Miami, Ohio (+200,000)
- Akron (+100,000)
- Hofstra (+100,000)
- High point (+100,000)
- Northern Iowa (+100,000)
- TCU (+100,000)
- SMU (+100,000)
potential sleeper
- South Florida (+75,000)
- VCU (+75,000)
- Santa Clara (+75,000)
- Georgia (+75,000)
- Texas (+75,000)
- UCF (+50,000)
- Texas A&M (+50,000)
- Missouri (+50,000)
- Ohio (+50,000)
- Villanova (+50,000)
- St. Louis (+35,000)
- Utah (+35,000)
dark horse team
- Miami, Florida (+25,000)
- St. Mary’s (+25,000)
- Iowa (+25,000)
- Clemson (+25,000)
- UCLA (+25,000)
- North Carolina (+20,000)
- BYU (+15,000)
- Texas Tech University (+12,500)
- Kentucky (+12,500)
- Nebraska (+10,000)
- Tennessee (+10,000)
- Louisville (+10,000)
- Alabama (+10,000)
Top candidates
- Virginia (+8,000)
- Vanderbilt (+6,600)
- Wisconsin (+6,600)
- St. John’s (+6,600)
- Gonzaga (+5,500)
- Michigan State (+5,000)
- Kansas (+5,000)
- Arkansas (+5,000)
- Purdue (+2,500)
- University College (+2,200)
- Illinois (+2,000)
- Iowa (+1,600)
- Houston (+1,100)
favorite
- Florida (+700)
- Michigan (+375)
- Arizona (+350)
- Duke (+325)
Full schedule for March Madness 2026
Here’s the complete breakdown of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament schedule:
- First four: March 17th-18th
- First round: March 19th-20th
- Round 2: March 21st-22nd
- Suite 16: March 26th-27th
- Elite Eight: March 28th-29th
- Last 4: Saturday, April 4 (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
- National championship match: Monday, April 6 (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)
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