Florida State leads SEC contenders to March Madness
Florida enters March Madness expecting a championship, but a strong SEC rival could challenge the Gators as the NCAA title race unfolds.
March Madness upsets don’t start when the game starts.
In fact, much of the anger and anxiety for some programs and fans begins weeks before the tournament’s 68-team field is announced. Such is the nature of the beast that will play a 31-game regular season with 364 Division I men’s basketball programs competing for a limited spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Being looked down upon is inevitable. Anger toward the team’s seeding is to be expected. If the selection committee adopts advanced metrics, fans will scream about the “eye test.” However, if an eye test is used, fans will scream about that metric.
The committee will combine both to select the entire field of 68 teams. The seven indicators used by the committee are a combination of predictive and outcome-based indicators.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, ESPN’s BPI, and Torvik Rankings are predictive rankings that measure a team’s strength in offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusting for opponent and location.
Meanwhile, KPIs, ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR), and Wins Above the Bubble (WAB) are more results-based rankings that allow us to judge March records and the difficulty of restarting.
Some teams have a lot of similar metrics by the end of the season, while others have a wider range of results depending on whether they win or lose games. The selection committee will have to weigh them and find the best field among the 68 teams.
This inevitably leaves some fans and the show angry at the snub.
Here are the teams with the most polarizing opinions ahead of Selection Sunday, based on the metrics used in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
March Madness 2025: Most polarizing teams by NCAA Tournament metrics
All rankings are as of Saturday, March 14th
Miami (Ohio) (31-1)
- Net: 64
- KenPom: 93
- BPI: 93
- Tovik: 87
- KPI: 53
- Sol: 29
- Wab: 38
If the Redhawks are in the NCAA Tournament, there’s no question they can afford to lose the MAC Tournament championship game. Losing in the quarterfinals to a 15-loss UMass team definitely won’t solve Miami (Ohio)’s case.
Despite a perfect 31-0 record in the regular season, a 1-1 record in the conference tournament puts them right on the bubble, far from to the right. But their “wins over the bubble” ranking should be enough to earn them a spot as a regular company.
Auburn (17-5)
- Net: 39
- KenPom: 38
- BPI: 28
- Tovik: 41
- KPI: 46
- Sol: 43
- Wab: 44
Falling from a Final Four berth to a bubble team is hard for Auburn country to accept. However, although the Tigers won against Mississippi State, they lost to No. 25 Tennessee in the SEC Tournament.
Southern Methodist (20-13)
- Net: 37
- KenPom: 42
- BPI: 42
- Tovik: 42
- KPI: 41
- Sol: 49
- Wab: 46
On February 21st, the Mustangs had a 19-8 record and the tournament seemed all but over. However, SMU would win one more of its final six games and fall into the bubble, potentially losing to Louisville in the ACC Tournament and being eliminated from the tournament.
SMU started the season 8-0 but finished the rest of the way 12-13.
Central Florida (21-10)
- Net: 50
- KenPom: 52
- BPI: 57
- Tovik: 54
- KPI: 28
- Sol: 37
- Wab: 36
The Knights would likely need to win a few Big 12 Tournament games to qualify. However, they were unable to compete against No. 1 Arizona in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
Like SMU, UCF started the season on a red hot note with an impressive win over the then No. 1 team and a 17-4 record. However, the Knights lost three straight games and finished their last nine games with three wins and six losses.
Indiana (18-14)
- Net: 41
- KenPom: 45
- BPI: 38
- Tovik: 34
- KPI: 69
- Sol: 50
- Wab: 52
The Hoosiers were 17-8 just a month ago and seemed like a safe bet to make it into the 68-team field, but they lost six of their last seven games, including two losses to a 15-19 Northwestern team.
So Indiana is probably on the outside looking in at the end of Darian DeVries’ first season as coach. Thankfully it is now a football school.
New Mexico (22-9)
- Net: 46
- KenPom: 49
- BPI: 56
- Tovik: 52
- KPI: 44
- Sol: 64
- Wab: 58
Like Indiana, the Lobos slumped late, starting 21-6 but losing four of their final six games. That run ended with a 64-62 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals, missing out on an automatic league berth.
Barring a surprise, they won’t hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
Texas (18-14)
- Net: 42
- KenPom: 37
- BPI: 39
- Tovik: 45
- KPI: 66
- Sol: 44
- WAB: 47
The Longhorns slumped in the final weeks of the regular season, losing five of their final six games, all but one of which were decided by at least 10 points. That includes a 10-point loss to a Mississippi State team that faced them 12-19 in the first round of the SEC Tournament.
Although the predictive metrics are still similar to Sean Miller’s team, they are still widely seen as one of the first four teams to miss the tournament.
South Florida (24-8)
- Net: 49
- KenPom: 50
- BPI: 52
- Tovik: 51
- KPI: 36
- Sol: 53
- WAB: 59
The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the nation and have won 10 straight games since defeating Charlotte in the American Conference Tournament semifinals. Given their statistical profile, they will need to win the conference tournament to earn an automatic spot on the U.S. team.
