Florida State leads SEC contenders to March Madness
Florida enters March Madness expecting a championship, but a strong SEC rival could challenge the Gators as the NCAA title race unfolds.
We’re one day away from announcing the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but there’s still some uncertainty regarding the bubble.
Conference tournament week is a team’s last chance to prove they deserve March Madness, but most teams fail to take advantage of that opportunity. However, everything turned upside down when Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss of the season, so the automatic bid will not be made. Now, Bubble Picture has added new members, making the race for the final spot in the bracket even more complicated.
Most teams have finished their races and will have to wait until the rankings are announced, but there are a few still playing to strengthen their case and secure automatic spots to make the race even crazier. Introducing the March Madness bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
texas
- record: 18-14 (9-9)
- Net ranking: 42
- Quad 1 record: 6-9
- Projected seed: No.11
- Quality wins: Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
- Bad loss: vs. Arizona State (neutral), Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi State (neutral)
It is never desirable to go into Sunday’s selection on a losing streak. Texas is learning how uncomfortable that can make things. Losing the last two games of the regular season isn’t the worst thing in the world, but losing to conference basement-dwelling Mississippi in the first game of the conference tournament is the worst thing in the world. The Texans have the best chance of playing out of the remaining teams in the bubble, but that doesn’t mean they should avoid playing in the First Four.
st clair
- record:26-8(15-3)
- Net ranking: 40
- Quad 1 record: 2-6
- Projected seed: No.11 (first 4 people)
- Quality wins: vs. St. Mary’s (2 times)
- Bad loss: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State University (neutral)
The West Coast Conference looks like a three-bid league thanks to Santa Clara doing as much as they can without winning the tournament title. The Broncos needed to reach the Championship game to be confident of promotion and they achieved that with their second win against St Mary’s. Santa Clara had a chance to beat Gonzaga, but it was an impressive performance that put Santa Clara in a comfortable position with most of the conference tournament starting.
VCU
- record:25-7(15-3)
- Net ranking: 44
- Quad 1 record: 2-5
- Projected seed: No.11 (first 4 people)
- Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)
- Bad loss: at george mason
VCU, the team with a chance to upset the bubble, is aiming for an automatic bid by advancing to the Atlantic 10 semifinals. Considering they don’t have any really strong wins on their resume, the Rams are far from done yet, and would at least want to be in the conference title game and in a position where they’re not as dangerous. Many teams will be watching this team.
SMU
- record: 20-13 (8-10)
- Net ranking: 37
- Quad 1 record: 4-10
- Projected seed: No.11 (first 4 people)
- Quality wins: vs. North Carolina vs. Louisville
- Bad loss: vs. LSU (neutral), California, Syracuse, Florida State
There may be no team that has made it through the tournament like SMU. The Mustangs looked good all season, but ended the regular season with an ugly four-game losing streak. SMU needed a few wins in the ACC tournament to shake off its bad taste, but only won against Syracuse and lost to Louisville in a heartbreaking finish. Not only have they lost 13 times, but they’ve also had some tough losses sprinkled in, making Sunday’s selection tournament far more stressful than what was thought a few weeks ago.
miami ohio
- record:31-1(18-0)
- Net ranking: 64
- Quad 1 record: 0-0
- Projected seed: No.11 (first 4 people)
- Quality wins: vs. Akron
- Bad loss: vs. Massachusetts (neutral)
Everything changed when Miami (Ohio) lost its first game. It wasn’t just a loss, it was against No. 8 Massachusetts in the first game of the MAC Tournament, barely qualifying for a three-loss Quad. While the record speaks for itself, there is a lot to be desired on the resume, especially considering the NET ranking dropped 10 spots after the loss. There are a lot of arguments as to why this team should or shouldn’t be included, and they’re all valid. The entire bubble hinges on whether the RedHawks survive.
new mexico
- record: 23-10(13-7)
- Net ranking: 45
- Quad 1 record: 2-7
- Projected seed: first 4 outs
- Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth vs. Santa Clara
- Bad loss: at New Mexico State University vs. Colorado State University
If you’re going to get a second chance in life, it’s better not to waste it. New Mexico State was given an extra opportunity thanks to the slump of several other teams, but it needed to make some real noise in the Mountain West tournament to truly take advantage of it. Unfortunately, the Lobos were unable to capitalize and lost to San Diego State in a heartbreaking last second shot in the semifinals. This makes the road to a bid tougher, with New Mexico State rooting for Utah in the title game to ensure the Aztecs don’t steal the bid.
oklahoma
- record: 19-15 (7-11)
- Net ranking: 47
- Quad 1 record: 4-9
- Projected seed: first 4 outs
- Quality wins: at Vanderbilt, Texas
- Bad loss: vs. Arizona State University (neutral), Mississippi State University, South Carolina
While bubble teams were struggling, Oklahoma gained an edge by winning the last four of the regular season. They maintained their momentum in the SEC Tournament, winning two majors and advancing to the quarterfinals, but lost to the University of Arkansas. It was a valiant effort, but it looks like it will be a tough Sunday for the Sooners, as they absolutely needed a win to get to the bubble.
- record: 17-16 (7-11)
- Net ranking: 39
- Quad 1 record: 4-13
- Projected seed: first 4 outs
- Quality wins: vs. St. John’s (neutral), vs. Arkansas, Florida
- Bad loss: vs. Mississippi State, Mississippi State University
The most puzzling record of the conversation. Auburn University was winless, only beating Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. The Tigers have had some nice wins, but their 16 losses are the most for a team at large, and it’s hard to justify that regardless of schedule. This will be the team everyone will be wondering about when the bracket comes out.
Indiana
- record: 18-14 (9-11)
- Net ranking: 41
- Quad 1 record: 3-10
- Projected seed: first 4 outs
- Quality wins: vs. Purdue, UCLA, vs. Wisconsin
- Bad loss: Minnesota, USC, vs. Northwestern (twice)
The Hoosiers, who finished the season 1-5 in their last six games, needed a strong performance in the Big Ten Tournament to make a case. Instead, they suffered another heartbreaking loss to Northwestern in a one-shot game. This would extend the tournament drought by three years.
