La Niña, the climate culprit, is expected to continue impacting the weather here in the United States for the rest of the winter.
Drivers hit the road during lake-effect snow in upstate New York.
Drivers braved treacherous road conditions as localized heavy lake-effect snow and squalls affected central New York
La Niña, a climate change troublemaker, will continue to impact the weather here in the United States for the rest of the winter, government forecasters said in a new report released Jan. 8.
“The effects of La Niña will continue through the winter,” Michel Rollou, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an email.
After that, after a transition to so-called “neutral” conditions in the spring and summer, “the likelihood of an El Niño outbreak is increasing” into the second half of this year, the monthly report said.
Read below to find out what this means for the weather here in the US.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño Southern Oscillation, which scientists refer to as ENSO.
This cycle moves back and forth between warm and cold ocean water in areas along the equator of the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by lower than average seawater levels in the region. This is one of the main factors that determines the weather in the United States, especially in late fall, winter, and early spring.
La Niña is the opposite of the better-known El Niño, which occurs when waters in the Pacific Ocean are at least 0.9 degrees warmer than average for three months.
The intermediate stage is known as ENSO-Neutral, where neither La Niña nor El Niño exists.
Map showing how La Niña affects winter weather, snow, and cold in general
A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the northwest and unusually dry conditions to most southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to experience warmer-than-average temperatures during La Niña winters.
What is the latest forecast?
According to a report on January 8th,
- La Niña is expected to continue, with a 75% chance of ENSO becoming neutral from January to March.
- ENSO neutrality is likely to persist until at least late spring.
- According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 61% chance that an El Niño will occur by the end of summer.
Is La Niña likely to continue impacting the weather for the rest of this winter?
“Yes, the official (prediction center) outlook indicates that the effects of La Niña will continue through the winter,” Rollou told USA TODAY.
“The projected temperature and precipitation pattern for the United States is similar to a La Niña event from February to April 2025,” she said.
Will the weather we’re seeing this winter be consistent with La Niña?
“Winter is traditionally based on a December-February or January-March average, and we’re in the first week of January, so it’s hard to judge that at the moment, which means winter is not yet in full swing,” Rollou said.
But she said the average pattern over the past 90 days has La Niña tendencies, among others.
- Drier-than-average conditions will be seen across the southern states stretching from Texas to the Southeast.
- Additionally, areas from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains will experience wetter than normal conditions.
Is next winter likely to be an El Niño winter?
“It’s still too early to say. That’s why we decided not to announce an El Niño watch,” she said. “We still need to overcome a period (spring) when model prediction skill is historically low, loosely referred to as the ‘spring predictability wall.'”
“However, we are keeping an eye on the possibility of an El Niño later this year,” she concluded.
An El Niño outbreak could impact the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, El Niño has been associated with a quiet season of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, including storms originating in the Caribbean and Gulf Coasts.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, specializing in weather and climate.
