Tokyo, Japan
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History was made this weekend.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stopped in both Washington, DC and Tokyo, making his first overseas trip for bilateral diplomacy. However, unlike his predecessor, Lee did not visit the United States first. Instead, his first stop was in Japan – a former colony in Korea.
It issued its first joint statement in 17 years, following the bilateral summit between Lee and Japan’s Prime Minister Isba, Tokyo and Seoul. We pledge deeper cooperation on AI, trade and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. They also announced plans to launch a joint task force to tackle shared challenges, including aging populations and declining birth rates.
But what stood out from the summit was not the one signed. It was a shared smile and warm words between the two leaders.
“This is our second meeting and we feel like close friends,” South Korea’s Lee said of his Japanese counterpart.
From hostility to familiarity, impressive changes in tone are impossible to ignore.
The Japanese colonial occupation of Korea, which lasted over 30 years in the first half of the 20th century, has long cast a shadow over relations. In 2023, Lee criticized his predecessor for attending a landmark summit with Japan, calling him a “doll” from Tokyo.
However, since taking office two months ago, Lee has been in a more practical tone. August 15th – The day of South Korea’s liberation from Japan’s rule – he called Japan an “essential partner” for economic growth.
This recent thawing in relationships primarily reflects not only diplomacy, but what is happening in the western Pacific.
The two countries are currently navigating unstable relations with Washington, with US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy putting once stable alliances in question. He imposed tariffs, demanded greater defence spending, and urged both countries to pay more to US military hosts. Now, South Korea’s formerly revived alliance with the US has long been the State Department’s mantra and not robust.
“The problem is Trump’s volatileness and trading diplomacy are unsettling for everyone,” Jeffrey Kingston, a professor of Asian Studies at Tokyo Temple University, told CNN.
“After Ukraine’s betrayal, do you think many American allies wonder what US security really means?”
In Japan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is often seen as a warning story. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida famously said: “Today’s Ukraine could become East Asia tomorrow.” Both Tokyo and Seoul are increasingly concerned about the growth of North Korean nuclear weapons and the deep ties with Russia in the Ukrainian invasion, where North Korean soldiers have acquired the benefits of direct battlefield experience.
Another looming concern about Japan and South Korea is the potential conflict over Taiwan. As China strengthens its military operations near the island, fears are growing that tensions could become involved in conflict at their gateways. Will the US intervene? Or maybe Trump, or the future US president, would be trying to make a deal with an authoritarian leader without Taiwan in the room, as we saw at the recent Alaska Summit?
Beyond security concerns, Trump’s trade war has rattled both economies as well.
Japan and South Korea have each signed to delay the worst tariffs, but the hikes on auto parts, steel and aluminum taxes have been hit hard by economies built around the automotive and technology industries.
At the same time, both leaders need to carefully manage their relationship with Beijing, the top trading partner of both countries. Neither accepts Trump’s conflicted stance towards XI, but they must navigate Washington’s demands without compromising their financial interests.
Already in face to Trump, Isba may have offered Lee’s advice on how to manage the president’s mercury style. During a visit to the White House in February, the Japanese leader blatted Trump and said, “I was very excited to see such a celebrity on TV.” Though Isba’s tone shifted after months of tariff pressure and domestic criticism over the lack of signed transactions. “Trump,” he later said, “I’m not a normal person. He’s someone who changes the rules.”
One of the early obstacles in this budding partnership with South Korea could be Isba’s resignation. The Prime Minister has put pressure on him domestically to intervene after losing a majority in both chambers of parliament.
If he is set aside, it is important for him to pass this rare spirit of cooperation to his successor – ensuring that new goodwill between nations continues to grow.
