Jamaica prepares for Category 5 Hurricane Melissa
Jamaica is preparing for Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, which could be the strongest hurricane ever to hit Jamaica.
On Monday, October 27, Hurricane Melissa barreled toward Jamaica, forcing the country to evacuate parts of its capital, close its airport, and open hundreds of evacuation centers as the country braced for perhaps the worst hurricane in its history.
Melissa, now a Category 5 storm, is expected to hit the southern coast of Jamaica on Tuesday, October 28, before approaching Cuba as a major hurricane and crossing the Bahamas, forecasters said. Melissa is not a direct threat to the United States.
The center of the storm was approximately 145 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, as of 2 p.m. ET, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and was moving slowly westward at 3 mph.
Under the influence of warm Caribbean waters, the storm grew explosively over the weekend, with wind speeds doubling from 110 mph to more than 140 mph. Forecasters say Melissa is expected to intensify as it approaches Jamaica.
The storm could dump 30 inches of rain on Jamaica, an amount that Dana Morris-Dixon, the country’s information minister, said was “unheard of before.” Forecasters warned that storm surge could exceed 10 feet along the coast of Melissa, causing “catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding.”
“The time for preparation is almost over,” Jamaica’s Minister of Water and Environment, Matthew Samuda, warned at a press conference.
Several cruise lines are changing plans to avoid Hurricane Melissa. Here are some examples:
Celebrity Beyond’s Oct. 26 itinerary will visit the Western Caribbean rather than the Eastern Caribbean, according to the cruise line’s parent company, Royal Caribbean Group.
Rather than visiting Tortola or St. Thomas, Disney Treasure will stop in Cozumel, Mexico, and spend two days at Castaway Cay, a private destination in the Bahamas, the cruise line said.
Icon of the Seas’ Eastern Caribbean itinerary has been changed to a Western Caribbean cruise that visits Cozumel, Mexico, and Roatan, Honduras, Royal Caribbean Group said.
– Nathan Diller
Experts predict Hurricane Melissa will make landfall on Jamaica’s west coast, near St. Elizabeth Parish, which has a population of more than 150,000 people.
Evan Thompson, director of the Jamaica Meteorological Service, said the storm was expected to move northeast across the country and into the St. Anne Parish area, which is home to more than 170,000 people. Both parishes are dotted with towns and cities of various sizes.
Although the storm’s path is well west of the capital, Kingston, as much as 30 inches of rain and tropical high winds could be observed across the island.
Evan Thompson, director general of the Jamaica Meteorological Service, said at a press conference that many parts of the country are beginning to experience tropical high winds and heavy rain.
He said the impact is expected to worsen throughout the day and into the night as the storm begins to turn north and take a path directly towards the island. He said there was a “small window” where the storm could move farther west and miss the island, but that was not the most likely scenario.
“Of course we all hope and pray for it, but at the same time we have to be realistic,” he said. “At this time, the planned route is towards southwestern Jamaica.”
He ended his presentation by trying to calm residents, saying, “Let’s believe that we can get through this crisis, and let’s get through it together. No one is alone. … This is not the end.”
Melissa’s wind speeds increased to 175 mph on the afternoon of October 27, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 to 24 hours as Melissa may begin an eye replacement cycle,” the National Hurricane Center said in an update.
“However, this is unlikely to significantly weaken Melissa, and it would make no real difference if Melissa made landfall in Jamaica at Category 4 or 5 intensity, as both categories would cause catastrophic wind damage,” the forecaster added.
There may be some good news for Jamaica’s capital, Kingston. “As it stands, the center should cross the island about 90 miles west of Jamaica’s population center of Kingston,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said in a Substack post.
“Of course, Kingston will be on the stronger side of the storm, but hurricane force winds are limited to a radius of about 30 miles from the center, so there could be a buffer between the capital and the worst of the storm.”
However, storm surge and heavy rain will still be a factor in Kingston.
In recent days, authorities have ordered evacuations in parts of Kingston that are prone to flash flooding and storm surge.
The Guantanamo Bay naval base began moving families off the island last weekend ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Melissa.
The naval base told residents on Friday, Oct. 24, that “all non-mission-essential U.S. citizens will be removed from the island by as early as Saturday afternoon and no later than Sunday morning.” Evacuees were instructed to pack two weeks’ worth of clothing and medicine into one 40-pound bag.
The civilians were taken by shuttle to a plane bound for Florida. Many families were taken to the Pensacola airfield.
The naval base at Guantanamo Bay serves about 6,000 people, including joint military personnel, civilians and family members, according to the Department of the Army, formerly known as the Department of Defense.
Hurricane Melissa experienced what meteorologists call “rapid intensification,” exploding from a 110 mph tropical storm on the morning of Saturday, Oct. 25, to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph by 5 a.m. on Sunday, Oct. 26. It has since reached Category 5 strength with winds of 175 mph.
Rapid intensification is the process by which a storm grows at an accelerated rate. This phenomenon is usually defined as a tropical cyclone (tropical cyclone or hurricane) that intensifies at speeds of at least 35 mph within 24 hours.
This intensification is caused by unusually warm ocean waters in the Caribbean Sea, which provides the energy for the storm to gain strength.
More than 30 inches of rain could fall in Jamaica and Hispaniola, forecasters said, warning of mudslides and “life-threatening flash flooding.” Peak storm surges could reach 9 to 13 feet above the ground and be accompanied by destructive waves.
Waves up to 9 feet high and up to 20 inches of rain could fall along the coast of eastern Cuba into the middle of the week.
The storm has already begun to wreak havoc. At least three deaths in Haiti have been linked to Melissa, according to the Associated Press. The storm also flooded parts of the Dominican Republic, damaging more than 100 homes and knocking out water services in several parts of the country, officials said.
Tourists were evacuated in Jamaica as authorities closed the country’s airports ahead of the storm and moved to open more than 800 shelters.
“Many of these communities will not survive this flood,” Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie told a news conference.
Melissa is the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. The other two are Erin and Humberto. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, there is only one other season on record with more than one Category 5 storm in the Atlantic Ocean: Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.
In historical records dating back to 1851, a Category 5 hurricane has never made landfall in Jamaica.
Klotzbach said in X that Jamaica has had five major hurricanes on record, with Hurricane Gilbert (1988) being the only Category 4 hurricane to make direct landfall in Jamaica. Gilbert made landfall with maximum winds of 130 mph.
Contributor: Eduardo Cuevas;Reuters
