Security experts are urging caution after violence in Mexico has disrupted tourist destinations.
See the scene in Mexico the day after ‘El Mencho’ murder
Video captured an empty street in Mexico the day after Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was arrested and killed.
- Security experts are warning American travelers to be cautious following the violence in Mexico.
- Tourists are not usually targeted, but they can become collateral victims of cartel power plays.
- Experts suggest travelers reconsider their immediate plans and those already in Mexico shelter in place.
Safety while traveling is non-negotiable. In the wake of military operations in Mexico that have prompted shelter-in-place orders for tourists and locals alike, those planning to head south may be wondering if now is the right time.
Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho” and head of the Jalisco Nueva Generación cartel, was killed during a Mexican military operation. His death sparked riots in Puerto Vallarta and chaos at the airport as well as in Guadalajara.
“The way I studied this organization is that it’s kind of a franchise model…a criminal group with a franchise model where they have different leadership depending on the territory they control,” Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, told USA TODAY. “So it’s not clear that just removing the heads of these types of organizations will trigger very violent events in different parts of the country over a very long period of time. We really don’t know.”
The State Department announced Monday evening, February 23, that most airports in Mexico are now operating normally as the country narrows its shelter-in-place advisory for U.S. citizens. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said at a press conference early on February 23 that the situation was “calming down.”
However, security experts do not believe this is the right time for tourists to gamble.
“You have leadership that leaves a power vacuum…and the reasoning behind the kingpin strategy is reportedly to remove the top of the organization, or one person in the leadership, and then a fight for control of this leadership ensues and the organization And because they are constantly in conflict with other groups… it creates a kind of violence,” added Correa Cabrera, who is also co-director of the Center on Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption (TraCCC). George Mason University.
Is it safe to travel to Mexico now?
“It’s been a tough 24 hours since this all started,” Mike Ballard, director of intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told USA TODAY. “For the most part, the actual resorts and hotels have been relatively unaffected. If you look at Cancun, the barricades were kind of outside the city limits, just to make it harder for the police to operate, and they were meant to be a distraction.”
“But fortunately, we haven’t seen any impact on these resorts and hotels that operate there,” he said. “And for people traveling to Mexico City, it’s clear that Mexico City is an important destination for business people. We don’t think there is a risk of significant impact on Mexico City at this time. Mexico City is not a city that usually gets caught up when this kind of thing happens.”
Still, Ballard said travelers with pressing plans may want to pause.
“I would probably say to people who have booked vacations to Puerto Vallarta, Cancun, and other places in the next 48 hours, they might want to reconsider because we don’t know exactly what this situation is going to be. It could get worse, or it could get better.”
Correa-Cabrera echoed the uncertainty, saying, “There was a lot of fake news and misinformation on social media, and people were very confused about what happened yesterday and what will happen in the coming days.” She added that the public should remember what happened during the previous reorganization of the cartel leadership.
“What happened in 2024…the first days, the first weeks were relatively peaceful, and then the violence started to become very significant. We don’t know at this point. So we’ll have to wait and see.”
Jason Hanson, a former CIA officer and author of Spy Secrets That Will Save Your Life, puts it more bluntly: “Please don’t go to Mexico.”
“I do a lot of security consulting and travel, and for the past 10 years I’ve been telling people: Don’t go to Mexico,” he said. “It’s too unstable, it’s too dangerous. … Your life is too precious. Your safety is too precious. There are a million other beautiful places in this world.”
But for Doug Patteson, an intelligence adviser and former CIA official, it’s more of a gray area. “For people who canceled their trips, I don’t criticize them for canceling. For people who went on trips, I don’t criticize them for doing it. Each person needs to make their own decision calculations about how much risk they’re willing to take at a time when the potential risks are increasing,” he said. “The answer is, most of the time, it depends. What you want is an active thought process. It’s not rooted in fear, it’s rooted in logic and decision-making.”
Are tourists also being targeted?
Experts say that violence associated with leadership struggles is not usually targeted at Travelers, but that does not mean they are exempt.
“They are not being targeted… This could be about a loss of leadership within the group, where important members try to gain power, or other groups trying to take control of the square that was controlled by this cartel… So, yes, it’s more of a collateral victim issue here,” Correa-Cabrera said. “You can be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and that’s not a good thing, especially now.”
Ballard said that before this week’s events, Puerto Vallarta was often seen as somewhat isolated because of its tourism-driven economy.
“Because there are so many tourists, organized criminals tend to leave the bears alone because they don’t want to peck them,” he says. “But people are going to have to rethink the overall security environment in those places.”
Hanson advised those already in Mexico to remain in place until they need to move, noting that the most dangerous part of the process of leaving is moving.
“You’re at point A, you’re taking shelter in a five-star luxury hotel, and everything is fine. … If you go 10 miles, you could run into a cartel, and then you could be in serious trouble. So it’s not worth putting yourself at risk and going to the airport when you’re already in a safe place with shelter and food.”
A turning point in your trip to Mexico?
The recent unrest could potentially have a significant impact on how travelers think about Mexico in the future.
“I think places like Puerto Vallarta may become less popular as a popular travel destination,” Ballard said. “We’ve seen something similar in Acapulco over the last 15 years. Acapulco used to be a classic vacation destination. Acapulco had one of the highest murder rates in Mexico. And that’s a place we tell people not to go to, right?”
He likened the situation to a low-probability but high-impact risk.
“It’s similar to the idea of going on holiday to an island with an active volcano. The risk is that the chances of something happening while you’re on the island are very low, but if it did, it could be catastrophic,” he says. “And I think it’s likely that we’ll see similar retaliatory violence from these operations in the future. So I don’t think this is a one-and-done situation. We could see something like this happen with some frequency in the future.”
What should travelers do?
Hanson, Ballard and Patteson recommended additional precautions for anyone heading to Mexico on a short-term basis.
“A good friend of mine, also ex-CIA, says, ‘Do you know what spying is? Espionage is common sense on steroids,'” Hanson said. “The same goes when traveling. Use common sense when it comes to steroids. If it sounds too good to be true, it is.”
Ballard also emphasized planning ahead for the worst-case scenario.
“This really reinforces the need for people to do their research and do their due diligence and plan in case something like this happens. Things like setting up things like meeting points in case families are separated, knowing where the nearest hospital, police station, fire department is.”
In addition to double-copying all important travel documents and keeping an eye on your phone, Hanson warned against overly friendly strangers offering information in return. “We call it ‘getting by giving.’ Someone gives you a little detail, so you can give it too, or you can correct what they guessed, like where you’re staying. … Don’t give out hotel information or details. People may seem friendly, but they might be trying to get details.”
Pattensen recommended the app Vigilant and resources from the James W. Foley Foundation, which offers a free downloadable safety guide for travelers that includes emergency numbers, embassy addresses, allergy lists and more. It added that it is important for travelers to triangulate information from government, trusted social media and local media.
Experts say patience and vigilance are key for now. The situation may be stable or it may not be.
