Gasoline prices are already rising as summer approaches, and some Americans now at the pump are concerned about the escalation of the Iran war.
Gasoline prices soar as Strait of Hormuz closes due to Iran war
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is raising gasoline prices, threatening oil supplies and raising concerns about the impact on the global economy.
MOUNT EFRAIM, N.J. – Kelly Sharp, a bartender and President Trump voter, has added gas prices to the list of things she’s dissatisfied with about the state of the world.
Standing outside a Wawa gas station and convenience store, Sharp said she voted for President Donald Trump in the last presidential election in part because he promised to lower the prices people pay at gas stations. But with prices rising across the country (it was $3.15 a gallon at Wawa) and a new conflict erupting in Iran, she regrets her vote.
Gasoline prices were already rising as summer approached and even before President Trump sent U.S. troops into Iran on February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes that have now killed at least six U.S. service members. Analysts say the Iran war will likely push prices up another 20 to 30 cents a gallon, in part due to supply issues and in part to global uncertainty. According to AAA, the national average gas price on March 4 was $3.19, up from $3.10 the day before and $2.97 a week ago.
“He promised to lower the prices, but he never did. The prices are going up,” said Mr. Sharp, a bartender in Gloucester City, New Jersey. “I’m angry at him and a lot of what he’s doing… It’s a shame that young kids are getting killed.”
Gasoline prices attract attention
Since taking over the presidency from Joe Biden, President Trump has repeatedly cited falling gas prices as evidence that his economic policies are working. In his State of the Union address on February 24, President Trump boasted about how his administration was lowering gas prices and saving American consumers money. Prices have fallen by about 6% since January 2025, when he took office.
The White House previously said lower gas prices could save motorists $11 billion this year compared to 2025, based on predictions before the Iran attack that average prices would fall and remain below $3 a gallon. In the wake of the Iran attack, analysts at fuel price tracking service GasBuddy predicted that the national average gasoline price would gradually rise to more than $3 a gallon. According to the AAA report, the national average price of diesel rose to $4.03 on March 3 from $3.74 the previous week.
Higher gas prices mean Americans spend more money commuting, running errands, and vacationing. Rising fuel costs also raise the cost of shipping groceries and other goods, squeezing profits for airlines, truckers and other transportation-focused industries.
“This is why I ride a bike.”
At Pumpy’s Gas and Convenience near Denver International Airport, Uber and Lyft driver Mario Pinzon, 47, filled up his Nissan Rogue with $30 regular gas ($3.25 a gallon). He said that despite driving 10 to 12 hours a day, his income would probably decrease by 20% due to rising prices.
“A month ago, gasoline was affordable for everyone,” Pinzon said. “But because of what’s happening in the Middle East, gas prices have had to go up.”
At another pump, Benny Acosta filled the tank of his CFMoto 300 bike with just over 1.5 gallons of premium gasoline for $3.79 per gallon. Acosta, 36, also owns a Ford Bronco SUV, but said he likes to ride his motorcycle to save money on fuel as he takes classes to earn his high school diploma. He usually fills up at a local grocery store that offers club card discounts, but that morning he saw online that Pumpy’s was cheaper.
“I could buy a full tank of gas for $6,” he said. “This is why I ride a bike.”
In Alexandria, Virginia, Karen Serpas, 34, a hospital technical support worker, was already feeling the pinch with $3.59 gas.
“See? I used to fill up for like $29, $30, now it’s $35,” she said, gesturing to the pump. “I mean, I would love it if the prices came down, but I like to go out and enjoy my free time.”
Rising gas prices aren’t a cause for concern for some people.
Gary Clark said it usually costs about $50 to fill up his car with gas, but he’s noticed that price increase in recent days, along with the prices of other necessities such as groceries.
He blamed the Iranian conflict for the rise in gasoline prices, but said the rise was “not yet alarming.”
“I was going to buy a soda, but it’s too expensive,” Clark joked as he left a convenience store at Virginia Station.
What will happen to gasoline prices in the future?
Greg Upton, executive director and associate research professor at Louisiana State University’s Energy Research Center, said oil futures prices as of March 4 suggest traders believe the conflict will last “weeks to months, not a year.”
Upton said consumers should expect another modest increase in gas prices, perhaps 20 to 25 cents or more in the coming weeks. Gasoline prices typically rise during the summer, he said, suggesting that the typical seasonal increase would arrive earlier than usual, last through the summer, and then taper off.
Oil prices began to rise after President Trump ordered the attack on Iran, rising from about $67 a barrel the day before the attack to about $75 a barrel on March 4. Susan Bell, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, said gasoline prices aren’t just driven by the price of oil, but also by the margins refiners have to deliver the crude.
Margins based on higher oil prices are not yet included in what drivers pay at the pump, Bell told USA TODAY. If that happens, it could add an additional 12 cents a gallon, taking the national average from about $3.20 to $3.30 to $3.35 a gallon, she said. According to AAA, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline in California on March 4 was $4.73.
“When pump prices get above about $3.50 a gallon, consumers really start to worry,” Bell said. “We are not there yet, but we will get closer in the coming weeks.”
Bell noted that the White House announced on March 3 that it was looking at ways to protect consumers from price increases. One possible policy change would be an exemption from the Jones Act, a 106-year-old federal law that says only U.S.-flagged vessels can transport fuel between U.S. coasts. The Jones Act was specifically waived during the 2017 hurricane season during President Trump’s first term.
AAA travel experts say watching your speed and filling up with regular rather than premium gasoline, as long as it’s suitable for your car, can make a big difference in keeping your fuel costs down.
According to AAA, prices remain well below the all-time highs set in June 2022, when the national average regular gasoline price reached $5.01 a gallon and diesel $5.81 a gallon.
Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said the war’s impact on shipping from the Middle East around the world meant most countries were likely to end up paying higher fuel prices. And one of the best ways for consumers to protect themselves from rising prices may be to buy electric cars, he said.
At a Tesla Supercharger station near Denver, business traveler William Roskowski waited for his rented EV to charge before returning it. Roskowski said he was aware gas prices were rising and rented the EV out of curiosity. Roskowski said he installed solar panels on his roof a few years ago, but usually drives a large SUV. He said it is financially secure enough that he doesn’t have to worry about small fluctuations in gas prices.
“I’m sitting here charging this car, and it takes 15 minutes to charge half the battery,” he said. “Hey, gasoline is definitely more convenient.”
