Former US officials say that if history is a guide, Iran and its hard-hit leaders will fight back after bombing three nuclear facilities.
Secretary Pete Hegses says we will “eliminate” Iran’s nuclear site
Defense Secretary Pete Hegses called the United States an “incredible success.”
What’s coming next?
Iran and its powerful supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei almost certainly intends to fight back in response to historic US military strikes over three suspicious nuclear facilities.
But when history is a guide, the response can happen anytime, anywhere, anywhere, in any way, says the former US intelligence director and diplomatic expert.
The Biden administration coordinator for the Middle East Biden management coordinator Brett McGurk said options in the “missiles, militias, hostage actions – hostage actions – that’s what they’ll depend on” range, said in an interview with CNN on June 21. “I think Iran has to do something.”
But like others who are wondering about Iran’s intentions, McGurk said he doesn’t know what the next step would be for the Islamic regime.
That’s especially true, given the warning that President Donald Trump would fill the retaliation laws with even greater force than saying that they erased uranium enrichment sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
“If peace doesn’t come soon, we will chase those other targets with accuracy, speed and skill,” Trump said in a speech to the nation late June 21. “Most of them can be removed in minutes.”
During an early morning briefing on June 22, Defense Secretary Pete Hegses said the scope of the surprise attack hopes to persuade Tehran Mullah not to retaliate. “We believe it will have a clear psychological impact on how they see the future,” Hegses said.
“Iran may ‘respondibly retaliate’,” former Trump national security adviser John Bolton told USA Today.
“Now, Iran is making a huge success with the proxies of the military enemies that are bashing it and their terrorists,” Bolton said in connection with Israel that he attacked allegations of Tehran’s nuclear site. “Is Iran really eager to add the United States as a second-armed enemy? Iranian Ayatollahs and military flag officers may not have committed suicide.”
Javed Ali, a former US anti-terrorism official, agreed that Iran’s powerful counter-punch is “possibly but extremely dangerous, very different to January 2020 and the last time the US and Iran attacked in January 2020.” On January 8, 2020, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) launched a ballistic missile at an Iraqi base that houses US troops, causing injury to more than 100 service members.
Opens a new chapter in the 46-year battle between the United States and Iran
Karim Sajadpur, a senior international peace fellow and Carnegie donation for longtime Iranian watchers, said that like Trump and Hegses, “it’s unlikely that Iranians will be seen the same way,”
“This is more likely to open up than ending a new chapter in the US-Iran war 46 years ago, or conclude that,” Sadjadpour, who regularly advises US, European and Asian officials on Iran, said in a series of posts on X.
But he also said many of Iran’s retaliatory options are “strategic equivalents of suicide bombings,” given the potential responses from the US and Israel.
Various Iranian options
The Tehran regime has a large number of proxy squadrons in its powerful military and the Middle East, and could attack US troops in the region, experts and former officials said. They also say it could attack US embassies and civilian targets that Americans visit frequently, and launched cyberattacks against the critical U.S. infrastructure.
Another option: attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz and close international shipping lanes with the help of the Houthi militia, where Tehran trains and finances in Yemen.
Iran was also able to launch terrorist attacks using Hezbollah fighters, which had blown up US and civilian targets in the area from the 1983 US embassy bombing and the Lebanese Marine Barracks that killed 300 people.
Iran was able to launch some of the vast missile weapons against Israel, but it risks that many of them will be shot down by Israeli iron dome defense devices.
Tehran also has some of the world’s most skilled Cyberwarriors, which can cause confusion and confusion by attacking the critical US infrastructure. After a similar attack on Israeli infrastructure rose by 700%, the rear of Mark Montgomery, former executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, said the risks were reliable and growing.
“If you asked me, ‘Is that possible?’ said Montgomery, a senior fellow at the McClary Institute at Auburn University. “Maybe it is? Yes.”
Iran’s top leader will likely decide on the response
Many, if not all, of Iran’s responses will be determined not by the private government but by Khamenei, an Iranian clergyman who has served as Iran’s second highest leader since 1989.
Kameini is considered one of the longest serving dictators in the world, ruled the oil-rich Islamic Republic with iron fist. But he is also a savvy politician who knows his administration “may not survive blowback,” and that would trigger a response, Sadjadpour said.
The Intelligence Reporting community in the US has been giving similar ratings for years.
In its most recent annual assessment, the Director of National Intelligence concluded that Tehran will continue to use a loose consortium of like-minded terrorists and extremist actors known as the “axis of resistance” against the US and Israel.
Iran has seen some of its proxies being destroyed or degraded, but Odni said “these actors still represent a wide range of threats” could be mobilized in a counterattack.
However, Odni also concluded that Khamenei “want to avoid involving Iran in an expanded direct conflict with the US and its allies.”
Khamenei is not considered reckless, but he also draws himself on the corner, saying publicly that Tehran would not put any pressure on us. On June 18, he warned the US that if he took military action against Iran during a conflict with Israel it would suffer “irreparable damage.”
As a result, Sadjadpour said, “his survival instinct and rebellious instinct are now in great tension.”
Iran’s ability to respond will decrease – but how much?
Iran’s response will undoubtedly be hampered by recent years by Washington and Israel’s fatal attacks on military and mandatory forces.
Soleimani’s death prompted “realistic and specific threats” and assassination plans to Trump and former Trump administration officials regarding US soil, including Bolton.
Tehran’s regional power was eroded by the death of Syrian Strongman Bashar al-Assad, the strongest regional ally. Israel destroyed its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, through a series of military strikes and assassinations. And since taking office, Trump has launched numerous military strikes in Yemen’s Houtis.
For now, the US is waiting to see if Kameini and Iran will either launch some kind of “one-off” one-sided response or coordinated efforts with one or a third of those proxy groups.
“We need to be ready for that,” McGurk said.
Like others, McGurk said Iran could also stop and listen to Trump’s warnings and not face a potential response to a termination of the administration.
“I hope that’s what this goes on,” McGurk said. “We have to prepare for the worst and work for the best and prepare for the worst. … These days will be quite a few. These are unprecedented times.”
According to media reports citing the Israeli Defence Force, by the time until 1am on June 22, Iran had fired its first retaliatory missile.
