Iran is facing an unordered renewal of sanctions within weeks, unless it returns to negotiations on the future of its nuclear program and allows international testing of the facility.
If Tuesday’s meeting between Iran and three European countries fails to advance, the process to recover sanctions lifted 10 years ago under the groundbreaking nuclear deal could begin at the end of the month.
France, Germany and the UK are telling the United Nations that if Iran continues to violate its obligations under the contract, they will move to reimpose sanctions through what is known as the “snapback” mechanism.
The snapback was incorporated into the 2015 nuclear agreement reached by Iran, the US and Europeans. Under the contract, Iran was granted sanctions relief in return for strict and verifiable restrictions on its nuclear program.
However, after President Donald Trump withdrew from the contract known as the JCPOA, Iran expanded its back compliance by accelerating uranium enrichment, which is close to arms-grade.
In a letter to the UN Security Council last week, foreign ministers from three European countries known as E3 said Iran had violated “almost the entire JCPOA commitment.”
“If Iran is willing to reach a diplomatic solution by the end of August 2025, or if he can’t seize an opportunity for expansion, E3 has made it clear that it is ready to trigger a snapback mechanism.”
Iran has halted nuclear negotiations with the United States, aimed to curb enrichment programs after the US and Israel bombed nuclear sites during the 12-day war in June.
Since then, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, have not been able to access Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The snapback will automatically re-equip all UN Security Council sanctions lifted under the 2015 deal. These sanctions, introduced between 2006 and 2010, include an arms embargo, restrictions on uranium enrichment and a ban on Iran’s acquisition technology related to ballistic missile programs. The measure also contributed to serious pressure on Iran’s oil and financial sector.
The snapback process takes 30 days, and Europeans recognize that Russia is envisaging a security council presidency in October, which could hinder the process.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut in a call with his counterparts from the UK, France and Germany on Friday warned that causing a snapback mechanism would have serious consequences, state-run news TV reported.
Iran was preparing for a “worst scenario,” an Iranian official told CNN last week that “we take for granted that E3 will run out of the only remaining leverage to please President Trump.”
Sources said among the options Iran is considering, restrictions on Tehran’s cooperation with the IAEA, withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and E3 can be placed on the “hostile state” list.
“E3 is unrelatedly reducing their role by nagging like annoyed children. They have lost their moral and political compasses that can’t understand their status compared to Americans in power politics in West Asia,” the source said.
Tuesday’s meeting will be held at the Deputy Minister’s level, Report TV reported.
Analysts say the rechallenge of sanctions caused by the snapback will undermine the already plagued Iran’s economy.
“In the short term, snapbacks will hurt the Iranian economy, primarily by causing euro liquidity issues. This is important to Iran’s ability to ensure that products of importance like medicines are purchased. Sanctions also apply to Iran’s consumers and business trust.”
However, he said that China “hopes to continue to buy Iranian oil. (United Arab Emirates) will continue to promote trade among Iranian importers. Iraq will continue to act as a market for Iranian exporters.”
