Invasion of Venezuela recreates the invasion of Panama that captured Manuel Noriega

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Gunfire in the streets of Latin America’s capital. US military troops attack by helicopter. A foreign leader accused of drug trafficking has been taken to the United States in handcuffs.

The Trump administration’s January 3 detention of President Nicolas Maduro has echoes of the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama that ousted military strongman Manuel Noriega and was the most direct U.S. intervention in Latin America since then.

But experts say that despite some similarities, the two key moments in the long and checkered history of U.S. interventions are different in major ways, and could make it more difficult for the U.S. to achieve its goals this time around, following attacks that have reignited unrest in the region.

President Donald Trump said on January 3 that his administration would be “running the country” for some time, apparently referring to nation-building efforts. He said it would be funded by Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, developed by U.S. oil companies, some of which were forced to withdraw in the 2000s.

While many Panamanians see Mr. Noriega’s ouster as a step toward a growing and stable democracy despite the deaths and trauma, experts said the outcome is far less certain in a much larger and more complex country plagued by poverty, crime and deep resistance.

Will Freeman, a Latin America researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was a much easier task for relatively small Panama to shape its post-invasion future.

Although the details are still unclear, Freeman said he doubts the U.S. would send a full-fledged Iraq-style occupation force.

“In Venezuela this will not be so simple,” he said. “One, it’s unlikely that we’ll even reach democracy. Two, many of the problems that were with President Maduro will remain.”

The leaders try in vain to avoid capture.

President Trump’s announcement of the raid comes 36 years after the United States detained Manuel Noriega.

The military strongman, famous for his pimples, was once an ally of the United States who was scouted by the CIA to stop the spread of communism. But he has increased U.S. anger over actions such as heightened hostility, the annulment of elections, and violent crackdowns on opponents.

In 1989, President George H.W. Bush ordered Operation Just Cause, citing authoritarian rule, concerns about the security of the Panama Canal, and U.S. drug trafficking and money laundering charges. It has mobilized more than 20,000 U.S. troops, many of whom are already stationed in Panama, to seize control of military and infrastructure facilities. A new president took office shortly thereafter.

Maduro’s arrest also stems from his history of conflict with the United States.

Maduro came to power as the successor to President Hugo Chávez, a socialist leader who assumed leadership in the late 1990s. Since then, the country has faced authoritarianism and soaring poverty, crime and inflation.

Like Noriega, Maduro was indicted by U.S. prosecutors in 2020 on drug trafficking charges. But Michael Shifter, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, said he was not as important on the drug issue as Noriega or Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former Honduran presidents recently pardoned by Trump.

Pressure to oust Maduro has increased since Trump’s reelection last year. And in recent months, a U.S. military buildup in the region has included the deployment of an aircraft carrier and deadly military attacks on small vessels suspected of carrying drugs.

Air Force Gen. Dan “Razin” Cain, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said U.S. authorities spent time following Mr. Maduro’s daily life and before the military raid in which he was captured by U.S. special forces at his military base.

When U.S. forces cut off power and descended on Maduro, they encountered resistance, including being hit by helicopters, and counterattacked. Mr. Cain said Mr. Maduro was unable to reach the secure room in the rebar he was trying to reach. Images and video showed explosions, vehicles on fire, smoke billowing over the capital Caracas and swarms of helicopters flying low.

By that night, Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were in New York, where Mr. Maduro has been accused of cocaine trafficking during his 25 years in public office.

More than 30 years ago, Noriega also went on the run, driving through the streets to evade arrest and eventually hiding in the Vatican embassy on December 24.

According to the official account, the scene was surrounded by American forces who were unable to storm the scene, and continued to play music by Alice Cooper and Black Sabbath over loudspeakers. He surrendered on January 3, 1990.

Noriega was convicted and spent the rest of his life in prisons in the United States, France and Panama, dying in 2017.

Interventions bring criticism and challenges

Both attacks were part of a century of direct and indirect U.S. intervention in the politics of Latin American countries such as Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.

For example, in the 1950s, the United States sought to remove Guatemala’s democratically elected president from office amid land reform that affected the exploitative labor practices of the United Fruit Company, based in the United States.

The United States helped establish a military dictatorship whose policies ultimately led to a civil war and massive human rights violations, during which more than 200,000 Guatemalans were killed or forcibly disappeared.

At least 514 Panamanian soldiers and civilians were killed during the invasion of Panama. However, some local reports put the number at double that. 23 U.S. military personnel were killed. And the event was seen by critics as yet another example of US disregard for sovereignty.

Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University, said that at the time, the United States wanted to intervene relatively quickly as leaders wanted to avoid a quagmire.

In contrast, the Trump administration has turned away from the post-Cold War international order with actions and policies that have been compared to President Theodore Roosevelt’s view of the Monroe Doctrine that the United States should “use international police powers” to end what Roosevelt called “chronic insecurity and malfeasance” in the hemisphere.

And it comes as some countries in Latin America are moving towards right-leaning governments. Gamarra said that during the Panama invasion, more people were trying to break away from the authoritarian leadership.

President Trump has criticized Venezuela for nationalizing its oil industry in the 1970s and making additional expropriations and other changes in the 2000s that forced many major U.S. oil companies to leave the country and led to legal battles over compensation.

According to Reuters, Trump said his administration plans to oversee Venezuela, but that the U.S. military cannot control the country itself, although Trump did not rule out putting some “boots” on the ground.

At a press conference on January 3, President Trump said, “I will continue to run the country until we can have a safe, appropriate and wise transition of power.”

Trump said Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez had no choice but to be cooperative, but Rodríguez appeared on Venezuelan television Saturday afternoon with other government officials to denounce what she called a kidnapping.

Such efforts will face complexities that did not exist in Panama decades ago, Schifter said, including the presence of large oil reserves and security challenges from criminal organizations to illegal mining interests.

Uncertainty also stems from mixed reactions, with some celebrating hope for new freedom and others saying a red line has been crossed in a region where the military action has reignited fears about past U.S. interventions.

In Panama, which has attracted the attention of the Trump administration over immigration and canal oversight, the country’s President José Raul Mulino expressed support for “the democratic process and acceptance of the legitimate wishes of the Venezuelan people” on social media.

The invasion of Panama 36 years ago was not seen as much of a precursor to other interventions, but President Trump’s comments on a range of issues, including illegal drugs, targeting Colombia, Mexico and Cuba, have worried some countries.

“U.S. military intervention in the region hasn’t always had a happy track record, so I think that’s creating a lot of anxiety and concern,” Shifter said. “If there are no limits and no rules, why can’t President Trump do the same for them?”

Contributed by Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY, Reuters

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