Kiev, Ukraine
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The biggest gifts offered to Vladimir Putin at the Alaska Summit were not applause, red carpets, beast rides, or first talk on the podium. Time was the greatest favor for President Donald Trump’s Russian counterpart.
Russia’s success or failure at the forefront is measured in a few weeks. Putin has it until mid-October until the weather is cold, the ground is soft and progress is difficult. It’s a complete two months. His forces are trying to turn painfully progressive and expensive tiny advances into more strategic benefits in a “nowhere-of-its-it-yourself” village in eastern Ukraine.
Another settlement falls almost every day. Secondary sanctions Trump threatened – punishing people who buy oil and gas in Russia, now retreating twice, and will not stop Putin’s war efforts this year. But it may have already stacked him up clearly in the form of calls from Indian and Chinese leaders, leading him to accept an invitation to meet with Alaska’s Trump.
President Putin does not want to maintain long war effort under economic pressure from his two major energy clients and effective sponsors. And he rushes on the battlefield, but slowly in agony at the negotiation table.
Trump’s instincts correctly assessed Anchorage’s reality. His painful expressions make positive claims from Russian and American officials, as well as how well the meeting went. Getting along with another president you have welcomed with applause is not a real diplomatic progress. And he probably knew that.
In fact, Alaska didn’t go as badly as it had for Kiev. The Ukrainians had to endure the relatively short revisionist history lessons from Putin in Putin. And an unpleasant repetition of how Ukraine and Russia are “brothers” nations despite being killed every night in the air raids of Ukrainian civilians in Moscow. However, Kyiv had two positive notes.
First, Trump and Putin were not rushing to create a peace deal for Mad Cap, Real Estate or Sharpie Maps. The opposite happened – no transaction occurred.
The second benefit of Ukraine is that Putin’s incompatible nature was widely exhibited despite all Trump’s fawns. Trump looked grumpy: lunch, press questions, invitations to return to Moscow were clearly accepted, and even in an interview with Fox News, he hoped he didn’t agree to speak to network host Sean Hannity. Finally, it seems Trump didn’t want to be there, and Putin may be wrong in making him feel that way.
But the evolution of Trump’s thinking is not all victory for Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky. Paramount is an overnight evaporation of ceasefire demand. It was the foundation of European and Ukrainian thinking last week, and even sneaking into the topic of Trump prior to Alaska. But President Putin didn’t want that as he halts his military advances.
And as of Saturday morning, demand had faded and the focus had shifted to a quick, lasting peace deal. That’s not the case. A long-lasting transaction can take weeks, if not very long. But European leaders retreated from demand for a ceasefire in a joint statement on Saturday, and Zelensky even said “the killings must be stopped as soon as possible,” rather than ahead of further talks on the ceasefire.
Trump also put pressure on Kiev, the resilient victim, whatever the bad deal Putin proposed. Deciding what to do next for Zelensky encouraged him to make a deal.
The proposed deal appears to be very bad for Ukraine, as we know it. One European official told CNN that Putin had been stubbornly attached to his demands for control of all Donbas regions – it is politically and in fact impossible for Zelensky to admit, and he has already refused. This part-massimalist request emerged after the meeting earlier this month of special envoy Steve Witkov, held in the Kremlin earlier this month, increasing confusion over whether this demand had given up on Putin’s claim to other Zaporidian regions currently partially occupied by Russian troops.
But Putin is a pragmatist for the studied patients. He can now come back for the rest of what he can do later. He doesn’t have a worrying election cycle considering grasping the country, but you’ll know that his overheated, overheated economy cannot continue this indefinitely.
In his later remarks, Putin remained set to take into account the “root cause” of the conflict he is fixed. This previously included the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state since the end of the Cold War and the Eastern expansion of NATO – and that is Ukraine’s “peace” which effectively means civilians who surrendered and died. He urged the Europeans and Ukraine to not interfere with any suggestions he had come to Trump.
Trump hasn’t fallen completely for this play. His Monday meeting with Zelensky in the oval office will reveal the evolution of their relationship and Putin’s views. Even if Zelensky hears, it’s another moment when he travels with just one option available. But Kiev has a mass of European leaders on the phone with Trump, and keeps in mind that Trump is probably a better companion for him than Putin.
The issue of Ukraine is not how diplomacy circus unfolds, but the fear outside the tent. The time that will likely take time to bring the party together for further consultations could be the needs of all Putin on the battlefield to bring about real change.
The coming weeks are the slow, limp progress that Putin hopes for. Tensions first continued between Trump and Zelensky, and pressure on Trump in Europe eased with Zelensky, followed by a troubling and technical stagnation in three-way meetings between Trump, Putin and Zelensky.
Putin will simply charge a week of scheduling or location conflict to buy more time.
If there is a trilateral meeting then, the only risk is the cycle repeating again. Putin makes unfair demands that Ukraine is unacceptable, Trump pressures Zelensky to accept them to score quick points on the board, and European leaders are leaning against Trump to remember that Ukraine is also safe. Rinse and repeat.
time. Putin needs it to conquer. Trump hates wasting it without points on the board. Zelensky’s army doesn’t have that. European leaders hope it will undermine the economic capabilities of Russia’s battle.
Much of that has passed since Trump came to power with the promise of ending the war in 24 hours. He is clearly more wise to Putin than in February, but it has remained little different in terms of the difficult dynamics and demands of this war.
