Forecasters are closely watching the oceanic areas where many hurricanes have been born. Hot water temperature indicates a problem.
Hurricane season will be busy, experts say
Dr. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said he anticipated a busy hurricane season and urged people to start preparing.
Hurricanes require warm seawater to form, and the water temperatures in key sections of the Atlantic Ocean are really beginning to warm.
“One of the biggest changes I’ve observed in recent weeks is the substantial warming of so-called major development areas (MDRs) in the Atlantic, above the seasonal average.”
That’s a big change since the beginning of this season.
“The water across this pioneering part of the Atlantic, where most of our strongest hurricanes have got their start, was below average,” he said.
Located between the Caribbean and Africa, the major development area (MDR) is an Atlantic region where many tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) form. This area is important as it is where many tropical waves that can develop into hurricanes are originally formed.
The warm waters in that important area are just one of the reasons hurricane predictors warn that hurricane seasons could soon get hot.
Warm water everywhere
It’s not just major development areas that are warm. Scientists said it is above average the US Gulf (formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean waters. In fact, the high pressure close to home included a 90-degree reading in Virginia Key, near Florida, pointed out by Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, in the shelves surrounding the Florida area and nearby southwest Atlantic Ocean, on August 1.
“Water temperatures are warm enough to support the formation of hurricanes anywhere in the tropical Atlantic,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA on July 31.
Brian McNoldy, a tropical researcher at Miami University, confirmed this, telling USA Today on August 1 that “when you look at the sea surface temperature, the commonly used 26°C isotherms are everywhere, so they are located in the Caribbean Sea from Africa to the Gulf.”
So why are there no hurricanes?
So, if ocean temperatures throughout the Atlantic are enough toasts to allow a hurricane to form… what is preventing them from forming?
“One of the biggest destroyers of the Atlantic hurricane season so far has been the unfavourable high-level winds,” Krozbach told USA Today. “Atlantic vertical wind shear is generally west. Over the past few weeks, there have been a lot of higher-level westerly winds, and vertical wind shear has increased across major development areas.”
The National Weather Service said in its online report that the speed of wind, which is the change in height, is a hurricane killer. “Strong upper winds destroy the storm structure by placing warm temperatures on the eyes and limiting the vertical accents of the air compartment. When the upper level winds are too strong, no hurricanes will form.”
However, shear may be reduced
However, higher-level wind anomalies are likely to turn into Easter in early August, resulting in reduced vertical wind shear, creating much more favorable conditions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Klotzbach said.
He said the flip is related to the east-facing Madden-Julian vibration, a global climate pattern affecting hurricanes.
“Phase 1-3 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is the most favourable phase for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and we should head straight to these phases, following the latest long-distance forecasts from the European Medium Distance Centre,” he said. “So, things are quiet at the moment (and likely will remain quiet for the next few days), but there are signs that things will pick up in about 10 days.”
Hazelton agreed, and in X, “The shear has already come down and it appears that it is about to fall further as Madden Julian’s vibrations move Africa. The second week of the ensemble is just as advantageous as seeing the wind above this year in the basin.”
“Even so, shear is only part of the equation. At this time of year, moisture and stability can suppress things and prevent development, even if shear is low. These issues seem to be common this year already,” warned Hazelton.
“It will be interesting to see how August extends into the tropical environment in the Atlantic.”
