Nicolas Maduro supporters rally in Venezuela
Protests have erupted in Caracas, Venezuela, following the attack and indictment of President Nicolás Maduro by the United States.
As policy experts continue to debate the ethical and legal implications of the weekend raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Americans may be concerned about the impact on their own pocketbooks.
Experts say, for now, don’t expect anything to change by pumping.
“Many people are far too optimistic that this will have a measurable effect right away,” said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gasbuddy. “That’s unlikely. It will take years, but the impact may still be measured in pennies per gallon rather than dimes. ”
Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs agreed, calling the near-term price outlook “ambiguous” in a research note released on January 4.
“Production could increase modestly in the short term, including scenarios with a U.S.-backed government and complete sanctions relief,” the Goldman team explained. “Alternatively, disruptions to Venezuelan oil shipments could continue and/or intensify in the short term, for example as Maduro’s government asserts its control.”
The Venezuelan leader and his wife arrived in New York on January 3 to face several criminal charges after being captured by US forces in Caracas. President Donald Trump said at a news conference that “big oil companies” would spend “billions of dollars” in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves.
President Trump said of Venezuela’s oil, which is produced and controlled by state-owned companies, that “the oil business is completely bankrupt.” “They were injecting almost nothing.”
President Trump said “very big American oil companies” will “come in and spend billions of dollars to fix our badly broken infrastructure” and “start making money for the country.”
But even under what Gasbuddy’s de Haan called “the most optimistic schedule,” it would take years for oil to reach global markets. He and others wonder how much incentive big oil companies have to take on such projects, given the geopolitical risks and the steep costs of increasing production.
Rachel Ziemba, an independent energy analyst, agrees that big oil companies may be hesitant, noting that lower prices for oil, the raw material for consumer products like gasoline, are often not fully passed on to consumers. For example, oil prices fell by nearly 20% in 2025, while gasoline prices fell by less than 10%.
On January 5, oil prices rose about 1.5% following the weekend raids.
Meanwhile, Goldman analysts expect oil prices to rise or fall by only $2 a barrel, depending on whether a more optimistic or pessimistic scenario materializes. This represents a change of only about 4% to the baseline forecast for global benchmark Brent crude of $56 per barrel.
“This is not going to be as smooth or easy as the administration is making it out to be,” Ziemba told USA TODAY.
What’s the bottom line for consumers? De Haan said, “While the potential for additional crude oil could stabilize oil for the next few years, we don’t expect the national average for gasoline prices to fall below $2/gallon anytime soon.”
